After having limited options on Thursday, there is a full MLB schedule on Friday, giving us plenty of options for prop bets. We ended up with a pitching-heavy set of picks, mostly focused on the number of strikeouts and walks certain pitchers will amass. At this point of the season, pitchers are still a step ahead of hitters, so focusing on pitchers will hopefully lead to success to close out the week.
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Luzardo looked sharp in his first start of the season, striking out 11 over five innings. However, it could be a different story against the Dodgers, who have a relentless and unforgiving lineup.
Los Angeles is averaging close to four walks per game, so they’re going to be patient and force Luzardo to pitch in the strike zone. That could lead to control issues for Luzardo, who walked two batters in his first start despite being dominant otherwise. That indicates a high walk total against the disciplined Dodgers.
Edman is the only hitter we’re targeting on Friday, and we’re going with a high-value prop bet. Against Luzardo, Edman is 2 for 5 in his career, with both hits going for extra bases. He’s also off to a fast start this season, hitting four home runs with seven RBI in just eight games. Edman hits in the middle of a stacked Los Angeles lineup, right behind some of the team’s top performers.
That sets up Edman with plenty of RBI opportunities. He’s collected at least one RBI in six of his eight games, so he’s consistently found a way to come through with runners on base. Given these odds, it’s worth taking a chance on Edman to stay hot, especially with past success against Luzardo.
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Lugo was limited to just four strikeouts over five innings in his first start of the season. While that might seem a little unusual, not if you look at his track record. In 2024, Lugo was held to four strikeouts or less in each of his first five starts of the season. That includes an April start against the Orioles in which he had just one strikeout.
For whatever reason, it takes Lugo a little bit of time to settle in and start amassing a lot of strikeouts. Since he’s yet to find his groove, we’ll fade Lugo a little in his second start of the season.
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Obviously, there is little margin of error in this bet, but the value makes it worthwhile. Littell tossed six strong innings against the Rockies in his first start of the season, striking out seven with no walks. Littell closed out 2024 with three straight starts without issuing a walk while also opening last season by not walking a batter in five of his first seven starts. In short, he attacks the strike zone, forcing batters to put the ball in play.
Against a Texas lineup that’s averaging just 2.2 walks per game, Littell has an excellent chance to get through a start without walking anyone.
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Martinez is not an obvious target for a strikeout prop. However, this pick is all about the fact that he’s facing the Brewers, who have the third-most strikeouts in the majors at this point in the season, averaging over 10 per game. Martinez is good enough to take advantage of that, especially after reaching five strikeouts in his first start of the season.
Last September, Martinez struck out seven Brewers over seven innings in a dominant outing. As long as he can deliver five or six solid innings on Friday, he should have no problem going over 4.5 strikeouts.
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