Monday begins the first full week of the MLB season. We’ve had the weekend to ease our way back into having baseball every day. Now it’s time to get serious about our daily prop bets and what players to target. Without any pre-planning, we’ve ended up with all pitcher props on Monday, so on the final day of March, ignore the hitters and focus on the guys on the mound.
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The Mets are counting on Peterson to come up big for them in 2025. The lefty was outstanding down the stretch last season, giving up one run or less in six of his final 10 starts of the season. Peterson will be well-positioned to get off to a strong start this year against the Marlins.
There are only four players on Miami’s roster who have faced Peterson before, which should play to his advantage against a young lineup. Plus, in his first start of the season, Peterson may not go beyond two trips through the lineup, increasing his chances of holding the Marlins to one run or less.
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The Angels have been one of the worst offensive teams in baseball through the first weekend of the season. Obviously, it’s too soon to start drawing conclusions. But it’s still a good idea to fade a cold lineup, especially against a veteran pitcher like Mikolas. Plus, outside of Mike Trout and Taylor Ward, the hitters on the Angels are a combined 8 for 58 (.138) in their careers against Mikolas.
The 36-year-old isn’t coming off his best season, which is why he’s not at the top of the St. Louis rotation. But Mikolas is still good enough to take advantage of a lineup that scored just five runs on 19 hits through its first three games of the season.
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Estes faced the Cubs last September, allowing six runs on nine hits while recording just three outs. He’ll be facing a similar lineup on Monday, but with some added pieces to Chicago’s lineup, most notably Kyle Tucker. While the Cubs haven’t been great offensively this season, they’ve also faced some quality pitchers. On Monday, they’ll face a 23-year-old who posted a 5.01 ERA last season.
Estes allowed at least five hits in each of his last six starts in 2024, so there is no reason to think Estes will get off to a fast start this year. Whether the Cubs can score runs is another issue, but they should be able to collect at least a handful of hits against Estes.
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Glasnow is one of the few pitchers happy to face the Braves. Atlanta’s hitters have a combined 22 strikeouts in 62 career at-bats against Glasnow. That equates to at least a strikeout per inning, which gives him a chance to reach a high strikeout total on Monday.
The Braves are off to a sluggish start offensively, which is why it’s a good bet that Glasnow will be able to get the better of them.
Not surprisingly, the Dodgers are crushing it early in the season, going 5-0 while averaging six runs per game. That doesn’t bode well for Holmes, who is moving into the rotation on a full-time basis after making seven starts last season. Long-term, the Braves have high hopes for Holmes, although that doesn’t mean he’s set up for success against the Dodgers on Monday.
The Los Angeles lineup is unforgiving, which is why it makes sense to fade any starting pitcher who’s facing the Dodgers, especially if you can get plus odds on the Dodgers getting at least five hits against Holmes.
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