There are two MLB games on Friday, perhaps for the final time in 2024. Both series have a clear favorite at this point, but anything can still happen. At this point, we’re following some of the series-long trends while making prop bets, which we hope will be a useful strategy.
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The Mets were foolish not to start Winker in Game 4 and he should surely be in the lineup for Game 5. He’s had some big hits during the postseason and sent a ball to the warning track while pinch-hitting in Game 4. More importantly, Winker has had past experience and success against Jack Flaherty, going 9 for 24 (.375) with five extra-base hits against the Dodgers’ Game 5 starter. Despite just seven at-bats in this series, these odds are too good for just one measly hit to pass up with Winker in a favorable spot.
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Hernandez has been crushing it during the playoffs after a lackluster regular season. He’s also killing the Mets in this series, going 6 for 17 with a home run and three RBI. There is every chance that he’s going to find a way to hurt them again in Game 5. Hernandez was moved to the no. 5 spot in the lineup in Game 4, which means he’s now hitting in a prime RBI spot. The kicker is that Hernandez is 4 for 7 in his career against Game 5 starter David Peterson. Given all of that, there is tremendous value in Hernandez collecting an RBI in Game 5 as he looks to put the final nail in New York’s coffin.
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The Dodgers have killed the Mets with walks in this series. Betting on any member of the Dodgers to draw a walk in this game seems like a good idea. We’ve picked Hernandez because has plus odds to draw one walk in Game 5 after drawing six walks in the first four games of this series. With the Mets starting a lefty, Hernandez is someone they might want to pitch around in the heart of the order. After going hitless but drawing six walks in this series, Hernandez will likely feel being patient is his best path on base.
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Despite going hitless in Game 3, Soto feels like the best player on the Yankees to target with a bet like this. He’s still 3 for 10 with a home run in this series. With Aaron Judge hitting behind him, Cleveland pitchers need to give Soto pitches to hit, especially with Judge hitting a home run in back-to-back games. In general, Soto is a good candidate to get either multiple hits or an extra-base hit, so we’ll make him our main target on the Yankees in Game 4.
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After hitting .206 during the regular season, Rocchio has become a bright spot for the Guardians during the postseason. He has at least one hit in all eight of Cleveland’s playoff games, yet he’s still getting even odds to get another hit in Game 4. Rocchio actually has multiple hits in three of his last four games, so he’s continued to heat up, giving him a .407 postseason batting average. Also, he hit a home run in one of his two at-bats against Game 4 starter Luis Gil. In other words, all the data points to another Rocchio hit in Game 4.
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