Best MLB Prop Bets Today: Five Prop Bets for NLCS Game 3

With the ALCS getting the day off, the Dodgers and Mets are the only game in town Wednesday. Of course, with just one game Tuesday, we hit on four of our five props for a good profit. We’re hoping for similar success on Wednesday while focusing exclusively on Game 3 of the NLCS.

The odds for Wednesday’s bets are from bet365 Sportsbook, which gives new users a choice between a $1,000 safety net on their first wager or $200 in bonus bets for making a $5 bet.

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Best MLB Prop Bets Today: Dodgers vs Mets (8:08 PM, EST)

Walker Buehler Under Walks 14.5 Outs Recorded (+110) at bet365

Buehler didn’t inspire a lot of confidence with his 5.38 ERA during the regular season. He then gave up six runs on seven hits to the Padres over five innings during the NLDS. To his credit, he went over 14.5 outs recorded, settling down after a six-run second inning. But it’s hard to imagine he’ll get the same leash in the NLCS. If he stumbles or gets into trouble, Buehler is likely to get pulled since the Dodgers probably have a lot more confidence in their bullpen at this point. That makes this a relatively safe bet unless Buehler suddenly rediscovers the pitcher he was a few years ago.

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Pete Alonso Over 0.5 Home Runs (+375) at bet365

Get ready, because another big moment for Alonso in the playoffs is coming. He hit a home run the first time the Mets were home in the NLDS and could do the same for New York’s first home game during the NLCS. While things weren’t clicking for him in the first two games, that doesn’t preclude Alonso from going deep in Game 3. It’s worth noting that he’s 5 for 14 (.357) in his career against Buehler with four of those five hits being home runs. Much like Aaron Nola in the last round, Alonso has a rich history of taking Buehler deep, which makes this the right time to target him for a home run prop.

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Luis Severino Over 4.5 Hits Allowed (+115) at bet365

Other than Mookie Betts and Shohei Ohtani, Severino has good career numbers against most of the hitters in the Los Angeles lineup. If he can keep those two from doing damage, he can give the Mets some good innings. However, Severino has allowed 14 hits over 12 innings across his first two postseason starts. He’s likely to give up some hits and have to work his way out of trouble. Yet, things would have to go off the rails for Severino to get pulled early. Therefore, it’s unlikely that he’ll be able to hold the Los Angeles lineup to four hits or less in Game 3. 

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Teoscar Hernandez Over 1.5 Strikeouts (-115) at bet365

Hernandez has struck out in six of his 11 career at-bats against Severino. That’s essentially a strike out every other at-bat. Even if Severino doesn’t last beyond the fifth or sixth inning, this looks like a multi-strikeout game for Hernandez. After all, he struck out twice in each of the first two series. He has poor career numbers against several of New York’s relievers, making it easy to fade Hernandez in this game.

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Freddie Freeman Under 0.5 Hits (+165) at bet365

Freeman is another hitter who has poor numbers against Severino, going 0 for 5 against him in his career. That’s obviously a small sample size for the notorious Mets killer. But Freeman is coming off a rare 0 for 5 performance in Game 2 and is lucky to be in the lineup at all while battling an injury that’s limiting his running ability. A safer bet would be under 1.5 total bases for Freeman, but given his past problems with Severino, there is value in betting on Freeman going hitless in Game 3.

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