Best MLB Prop Bets Today: Focus Turns to Pitchers in ALDS Game 4

Unlike the two National League series that have featured plenty of offense, runs have been at a premium during the ALDS. With Game 4 scheduled for both series Thursday night, our prop bets are mostly focused on the pitchers.

The odds for those bets are coming from bet365 Sportsbook, which gives new customers a choice between $200 in bonus bets for making a $5 bet and a safety net of $1,000 on their first wager.

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Best MLB Prop Bets Today: Guardians vs. Tigers (6:08 PM, EST)

Kerry Carpenter Over 0.5 Hits (-155) at bet365

Carpenter’s three-run home run made him the hero for Detroit in Game 2. However, an early pitching change by the Guardians in Game 3 forced him out of the game early. But he should be back in the starting lineup in Game 4 against Cleveland’s Tanner Bibee. Carpenter is 3 for 6 with a double and a home run in his career against Bibee. While that’s still a small sample, he’s clearly comfortable facing Bibee and has tons of confidence after his Game 2 heroics, which should allow him to get at least one hit on Thursday.

Tanner Bibee Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+125) at bet365

Bibee fired six strikeouts over 4.2 scoreless innings in Game 1 of this series. However, the Tigers have now seen what he has to offer, making it difficult to envision Bibee replicating that same success. In late July, he faced the Tigers in back-to-back starts and registered just two strikeouts over six innings in the second game. Plus, this is an elimination game for the Guardians, so even Bibee might have a short leash if he runs into trouble. That could lead to a shortened outing that makes it difficult for him to collect more than four strikeouts.

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Best MLB Prop Bets Today: Yankees vs. Royals (8:08 PM, EST)

Vinnie Pasquantino Over 0.5 Strikeouts (-135) at bet365

Pasquantino managed to get through Game 3 without striking out, although he’s 0 for 12 with five strikeouts in this series. That shouldn’t inspire much confidence in his ability to get going in Game 4, especially against Gerrit Cole. In his career against Cole, Pasquantino is 0 for 6 with two strikeouts. He’s an ice-cold hitter who is facing a bad matchup against a pitcher who is capable of missing bats. It’s more than reasonable to think that Pasquantino will strike out at least once in Game 4.

Gerrit Cole Under 4.5 Hits (+132) at bet365

Cole didn’t have his best stuff in Game 1, conceding seven hits to the Royals over five innings of work. However, that start was out of character for him after a strong September and could be explained by a long layoff. Now that he’s on regular rest, look for Cole to be much better in Game 4. In September, Cole allowed four hits or less in four of his five starts while posting a 2.53 ERA across those five starts. Keep in mind that most of Kansas City’s key hitters have a poor history against Cole, which is another indication that he’ll have a bounce-back start in Game 4.

Aaron Judge Under 0.5 Hits (+175) at bet365

It’s not easy betting against Judge in this spot, but he’s gone hitless in two of the first three games in this series. If you go back to the last day of the regular season, Judge has one hit and 10 strikeouts in his last 16 at-bats. Granted, he’s capable of breaking out at any time, but there aren’t a lot of reasons to think that’s suddenly going to happen. Judge is also a pitiful 1 for 20 with 12 strikeouts in his career against Kansas City starter Michael Wacha. Given those numbers, the value of Judge going hitless in Game 4 is too much to pass up.

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