Best MLB Prop Bets Today: High-Profile Pitchers Set Up for Success

Wednesday was another day of profits for us after winning three of our five prop bets, two of which had plus odds. With reduced options on Thursday, we’ve decided to focus on just two games, although we still found a few worthwhile picks with plus odds and good value.

The odds for Thursday are from bet365 Sportsbook, which gives new users a choice between getting started with either $200 in bonus bets for making a $5 wager or a safety net on their first bet that’s worth up to $1,500.

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Best MLB Prop Bets Today: Orioles vs. Yankees (7:05 PM, EST)

Corbin Burnes Under 2.5 ER (-125) at bet365

Frankly, we’re all hoping that Burnes and Gerrit Cole can provide a classic pitcher’s duel on Thursday night. Burnes is probably the safer bet in complying with that. He’s coming off back-to-back starts in which he’s thrown seven scoreless innings. Granted, both of those starts came against the Tigers, although don’t forget the Tigers are a playoff contender. Going back even further, Burnes has allowed two runs or less in his last five starts, making a late push for Cy Young consideration. He also has exceptional numbers against several members of the Yankees with Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, and Anthony Rizzo being a combined 0 for 22 against him, making Burnes a safe target.

Gerrit Cole Under 4.5 Hits Allowed (+128) at bet365

Cole has had plenty of ups and downs this season, but he’s been more consistent lately, posting a 1.93 ERA in August and a 3.20 ERA across his first four September starts. He allowed just two hits over nine innings against Oakland in his last start. In fact, Cole has held opposing lineups to four hits or less in five of his last seven starts. At times, he’s hurt himself with walks, which is why we’re targeting his hits rather than earned runs. Also, while a few members of the Orioles have a good track record against Cole, most of Baltimore’s key hitters have struggled against him, making this bet worthwhile given the odds.

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Best MLB Prop Bets Today: Padres vs. Dodgers (10:10 PM, EST)

Freddie Freeman 2+ Hits (+210) at bet365

The value of this bet is extraordinary for a hitter who is heating up and more than capable of getting two hits on any given day. In fact, Freeman has two hits in three of his last four games. He also has four multi-hit games in his last seven games. In theory, facing Joe Musgrove is going to be tough because he’s been on a roll lately. But Freeman is 13 for 30 (.433) with five extra-base hits in his career against Musgrove. On paper, this is a good matchup for Freeman, which is why there is so much value in him getting multiple hits on Thursday.

Jake Cronenworth Under 0.5 Hits (+130) at bet365

On the opposite side of things, we have no faith in Cronenworth recording a hit in Thursday’s game. While Walker Buehler isn’t the most intimidating pitcher the Dodgers have these days, Cronenworth is just 2 for 16 (.125) against him in his career. Also, while he has had a few multi-hit games in recent days, Cronenworth has gone hitless in five of his last seven games. He’s still drawing walks and contributing in other ways. But considering his poor history against Buehler and his lack of consistency lately, we see value in this bet.

Walker Buehler Under 5.5 Hits (-125) at bet365

If he doesn’t give up any hits to Cronenworth, there is an excellent chance Buehler can keep the entire San Diego lineup to five hits or less. Despite a problematic year overall, Buehler has held opponents to five hits or less in four of his last five starts. His control has been an issue at times, but both good lineups and bad lineups have struggled to get above the five-hit threshold. Plus, the entire San Diego lineup is hitting a combined .185 against him in their careers, so he’s set up for success on Thursday. 

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