With just two weeks left in the MLB season, it's time to enjoy the last few days of the season and win some prop bets while we still can. On Monday, we’re taking some chances by fading a couple of star hitters while also banking on a few pitchers to succeed. Either way, there is good value everywhere you look.
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Since leaving Atlanta, Freeman has struggled against longtime teammate Max Fried, who starts for the Dodgers on Monday. He’s just 2 for 11 with six strikeouts in his career against Fried. Freeman is also batting a modest .242 against lefties this year, so he’s not been that great against southpaws. He’s also gone hitless in four of the last six games that he’s started, so going hitless isn’t that far fetched if most of his at-bats come against Fried. With these odds, this bet is worth a shot.
Betts has also struggled in his career against Fried, going just 2 for 27 (.074) with seven strikeouts. That’s a serious problem no matter how good Betts is otherwise. Meanwhile, Betts has gone five straight games without an extra-base hit, collecting just three hits during that stretch. He’s actually just 2 for 16 over his last four games. Based on his inability to hit Fried, it’s unlikely that Betts will be able to break out of his mini-slump on Monday. Getting one hit is possible, but that’s the best the Dodgers can hope for out of Betts.
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It’s a little surprising that Lugo’s over/under is still at 2.5 earned runs, but we’ll take it nonetheless. He’s making a late push in the Cy Young race, as Lugo has 16 wins and ranks sixth in ERA. Lugo has allowed one run or less or seven innings in three consecutive starts. Dating back even further, he’s allowed two runs or less in five of his last eight starts. Back in April, he fired seven scoreless innings against the Tigers, so this isn't a lineup that should give him much trouble. The Tigers have scored just nine total runs in their last four games, so look for Lugo to dominate on Monday.
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One out in the seventh inning is all we need from Imanaga to hit this bet. Chicago’s ace has delivered seven full innings in three of his last four starts while going over 18.5 outs in five of his last eight starts. Not only do the A’s have a mediocre lineup but nobody on Oakland’s roster has faced Imanaga before. That gives him a good chance to get some quick outs and pitch deep into this game, which is why we like the plus odds on this bet.
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On paper, Civale has a tough matchup against the Phillies on Monday. However, most of Philadelphia’s lineup has never faced him before. That should give him an advantage for at least the first few innings. Civale has also been on a nice run lately, conceding four hits or less in four of his last five starts. That gives him a little leeway against a Philadelphia lineup that struggled during the early innings all weekend.
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