Best MLB Prop Bets Today: Heavy Fade Action on Friday

Thursday was a big day for us, as multiple bets with plus odds paid off. We’re hoping to take that momentum into Friday and end the week strong. However, rather than staying focused on hitters, we’ve identified several pitchers to target on Friday. The catch is that we’re fading players with most of our picks, so hopefully, that strategy pays off.

Friday’s bets are from bet365 Sportsbook, which is giving new users a choice between $200 in bonus bets or $1,000 safety net bet.

Best MLB Prop Bets Today: Cubs vs. Nationals (6:45 PM, EST)

Seiya Suzuki Over 1.5 Total Bases (+105) at bet365

Suzuki continues to be the hottest hitter in baseball, so we have to target him. He has 16 hits in his last eight games, raising his average from .261 to .278 during that stretch. That’s an unreal jump in batting average this late in the season. During those eight games, Suzuki has six multi-hit games and six extra-base hits. It doesn’t matter who’s pitching for the Nationals, Suzuki is a safe bet to stay hot and collect multiple bases one way or another.

Jake Irvin Over 5.5 Hits Allowed (-125) at bet365

For the record, Irvin is the one starting for the Nats on Friday, and he could be in trouble. He owns a 5.46 ERA in August, giving up at least six hits in four of his last five starts. Opposing teams are teeing off against him right now. It’s not just Suzuki that he has to worry about because the Cubs are red-hot as a team. The Cubs are fresh off a three-game sweep of the Pirates, scoring 41 total runs in three games. In fact, the Cubs have scored at least nine runs in five of their last seven games, so we figure they are going to hit Irvin hard and have no problem getting over 5.5 hits.

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Best MLB Prop Bets Today: Royals vs. Astros (8:10 PM, EST)

Framber Valdez Under 5.5 Hits Allowed (+105) at bet365

It doesn’t matter the opponent, Valdez is going to keep them under wraps. The lefty posted a 2.90 ERA in July and is rocking a 2.00 ERA in August. Over his four starts this month, Valdez has allowed just 13 total hits in 27 innings of work. As a result, he’s allowed four hits or less in five of his last seven games, so even if he’s not quite as sharp, there is some margin for error. The fact that we’re getting plus odds on this bet makes this a no-brainer. With Kansas City’s best hitters Salvador Perez and Bobby Witt Jr. a combined 2 for 14 in their careers against Valdez, we’re extra confident in this pick.

Seth Lugo Over 2.5 ER (-125) at bet365

Unfortunately for Lugo, we’re equally confident that he’s going to struggle on Friday. With 14 wins and a 3.19 ERA, Lugo is still in the Cy Young conversation, but his hopes are fading with a 5.76 ERA in August. Lugo has been knocked around for at least four earned runs in three of his last four starts and four of his last six starts. He also has worrisome numbers against several members of the Astros. The trio of Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, and Yordan Alvarez is a combined 9 for 21 (.429) with five extra-base hits in their careers against Lugo. That alone is a sign that Lugo is someone who should be faded.

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Best MLB Prop Bets Today: Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks (9:40 PM, EST)

Gavin Lux Under 0.5 Hits (+165) at bet365

Lux had a big game on Thursday, going 2 for 4 with a double to help the Dodgers take a series from the Orioles. But nothing about his season indicates that he’ll be able to replicate that success on Friday. He was hitless in three straight games prior to that and is batting a modest .249 on the season. He’s had trouble building on any momentum this season, which is why we thought it’d be a good idea to fade him. He’s also just 1 for 13 (.077) in his career against Arizona starter Zac Gallen, which points to a hitless game for Lux.

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