Unfortunately, a rainout wiped out a couple of our Tuesday picks and contributed to walking away empty-handed. But there’s no way that’s going to happen two days in a row. For Wednesday, we’re being a little more conservative while also focusing on hitters. Even our MLB prop bets involving pitchers involve those pitchers getting knocked around, so it’s all about hitters on Wednesday.
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Judge is one of his grooves, so he can hit a home run in any given at-bat. That’s why these odds aren’t that lucrative, but with Judge, this actually feels like a safe bet. He already has 12 home runs in August, including seven in his last seven games. Judge also has a higher slugging percentage this year against lefties, making a matchup against Washington’s MacKenzie Gore favorable for him. The kicker is that Judge is 2 for 3 in his career against Gore with both hits leaving the park, so it’d almost be surprising if he didn’t homer.
Unfortunately for Gore, Judge won’t be the only batter to give him problems on Wednesday. There are plenty of other Yankees who are likely to make hard contact against the southpaw. Keep in mind that Gore has allowed at least seven hits in five of his last six starts. Even when he limited the Braves to one run over six innings in his last start, Gore still allowed seven hits. The bar of 5.5 hits allowed is awfully low for him against a quality offensive team, which makes this feel like a safe bet.
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If Judge is the hottest hitter in baseball, Guerrero isn't far behind him. He’s hitting .373 in August, bumping his season average up to .321. That’s what happens when you have three straight multi-hit games and four multi-hit games in your last six games, as Guerrero has done. Given his power, betting over 1.5 total bases is safer, but we’ll take the more lucrative odds for multiple hits. Guerrero is 8 for 19 (.421) with five extra-base hits in his career against Boston’s Brayan Bello, making this a great matchup for the Toronto slugger.
Bassitt has become a pitcher to consider fading every start he makes. He pitched to a 7.01 ERA in July and has a 6.55 ERA over his first four starts in August. Surprisingly, he’s allowed five hits or less in five of his last eight starts. But he’s also faced some subpar offensive teams during that stretch. The Red Sox have a lineup that can do some damage against Bassitt if he has another off night. That makes us think that Boston can collect at least half a dozen hits against Toronto’s starter.
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Buehler isn’t the pitch that anybody remembers from past seasons. With a 6.09 ERA this season, he continues to get rocked one start after another. Somehow, the oddsmakers still have his over/under at 2.5 ER with even odds despite Buehler giving up at least three earned runs in six of his last seven starts. Granted, the Orioles have been held to three runs or less in five of their last games, so they aren’t clicking offensively right now. However, Baltimore’s lineup is too talented not to get the best of Buehler and score at least three runs before he leaves the game.
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