Despite not hitting our home run prop, we still managed to turn a small profit on Thursday. That should bode well for our chances on Friday. We’ve decided to focus on three well-known pitchers for today’s MLB props. Even our hitter props are directly related to those pitchers, making this a pitching-heavy day. The odds for Friday’s bets are from Caesars Sportsbook, where new users can receive a bonus bet of up to $1,000 if they sign up with our code WSN1000 and lose their first bet.
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This is a high strikeout total to reach, but Skenes is more than capable of getting there despite a slight drop in his strikeouts lately. In fairness, he’s reached eight strikeouts in two of his four starts since the all-star break. Of course, he’s only gone over eight strikeouts four times this year, and two of those starts were in May. However, the Mariners also lead the majors in strikeouts. They are far more vulnerable to striking out than the average team. With such lucrative odds, it’s worth taking a chance on Skenes to push for a double-digit strikeout total.
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There’s nothing wrong with fading Corbin, especially against a team like the Phillies. The lefty has given up four runs in back-to-back starts, doing so against the Angels and Giants. Those aren’t exactly offensive juggernauts, so it’s hard to envision Corbin doing much better against the Philadelphia lineup. Keep in mind that Corbin got roughed up for 11 runs on 13 hits against the Diamondbacks at the end of July. His track record against Philly hitters doesn’t help his case either, so it’s an easy decision to fade Corbin on Friday.
While Realmuto hasn’t had his best season, he’s still tough on lefties. He also has a strong track record against Corbin, going 13 for 35 (.371) with four extra-base hits. Realmuto also finds himself in the midst of a hot streak. Over his last four games, he’s 5 for 14 with two extra-base hits. Given that momentum and his history against Corbin, this is a good time to target Realmuto, especially since he has some of the most lucrative odds for Friday’s matchup with Corbin and the Nationals.
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Burnes hasn’t quite looked like himself lately. He’s allowed at least three runs in three of his last four starts despite still being in the Cy Young Award conversation with his 2.71 ERA. However, he’s been absolutely dominant in his two starts against the Red Sox this year, covering 14 innings while allowing just one earned run on five hits. The players on Boston’s roster are a combined 5 for 54 (.093) against Burnes in their careers. Outside of Connor Wong, nobody on the Red Sox has had any success against Burnes, which is why he’s easy to back on Friday.
Smith has been particularly bad against Burnes, going 0 for 10 with three strikeouts against him. To be fair, Smith had a four-game hitting streak that was snapped on Thursday. But he’s also batting just .237 on the season, so it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him go a few games in a row without a hit. Given his poor history against Burnes, we see a lot of value in fading Smith.
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