Slowly but surely, we got our act together last week, turning a profit on Friday. That gives us some momentum heading into a new week. For whatever reason, a majority of our prop picks for Monday are left-handed hitters. Whether that’s a good omen or not, we feel confident with our picks. The odds are from Caesars Sportsbook, which is giving new users a bonus bet of up to $1,000 if they don’t win their first wager on the site.
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Allen has had a rough season, posting a 5.67 ERA, and it’s not getting any easier. His biggest problem lately has been pitching deep into games, as the Guardians have lost faith in him. Allen has failed to record more than 13 outs in three straight starts. In fact, he’s recorded an out in the sixth inning - the threshold for Monday’s bet - just once in his last five starts. While he may get some semblance of an edge from most of Arizona’s hitters never facing him before, the D’Backs have been crushing it offensively lately, so we don’t have much faith in Allen being able to pitch deep into this game before getting pulled.
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Alvarez is someone who got off to a slow start this year but is now performing like one of the best hitters in baseball. He also has some crazy reverse splits this year, hitting .367 with a 1.002 OPS against lefties this season. That’s why we’re not worried about a lefty-on-lefty matchup against Andrew Heaney on Monday. It helps that Alvarez is 11 for 21 (.524) in his career against Heaney. It also helps that Alvarez has three multi-hit games in his last six games, so he has multiple paths to going over 1.5 total bases.
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Singer has excelled at pitching deep into games over the last month. He’s pitched seven full innings in four of his last five starts, likely because he’s allowed one run or less in three of those starts. On Monday, we only need him to complete six full innings, which is why there is good value in this bet. Of course, the one exception during that stretch came when he got bounced by the Red Sox after 2.2 innings last month. However, Singer is too good not to learn from that start and have more success against Boston’s lineup.
While we have high hopes for Singer, he won’t be perfect against the Red Sox, especially against Duran. In limited at-bats against Singer, Duran is 2 for 5 with a double against him. More importantly, Duran is in the midst of a hot streak, so he’s bound to have success against anyone. Duran has four multi-hit games in his last six games, going 11 for 27 (.407) with five extra-base hits during that span. Even without plus odds, we see a lot of value in this bet.
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Tyler Glasnow starts for the Dodgers in this heavyweight matchup, which is bad news for several Philadelphia hitters. That includes Schwarber, who is 1 for 8 with five strikeouts in his career against Glasnow. While Schwarber is better at making contact than he was last season, this is still a bad matchup for him. His strikeout frequency against Glasnow is a sign that he’ll struggle just to put the ball in play much less get a hit. With Glasnow a good candidate to go deep in this game, Schwarber will be lucky to get one at-bat against the Los Angeles bullpen, which makes us feel good about Schwarber going hitless.
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