Our first full week of MLB prop bets was a smashing success, as we’re already up over 13 units on the season. On Monday, we have our eyes on both the Dodgers and the Diamondbacks. Those teams are set up for success, so prop bets in favor of those teams or fading their opponent should have a good outcome. Naturally, we’ve picked out the five bets we like the most. The odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook, where new users just have to place a $5 bet to receive $150 in bonus bets.
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Arraez hasn’t gotten off to a good start in 2024 after winning back-to-back batting titles. But after a four-hit game on Sunday, there is a reason to believe that he’s going to turn things around. It’s best to jump on him now before the oddsmakers recalibrate. Arraez is always a threat to get multiple hits in one game. He’s also had an extra-base hit in back-to-back games, so we’re going to take plus money on him getting over 1.5 total bases rather than take -240 odds on him getting a single hit. In his career, Arraez is 2 for 4 with a double against Nestor Cortes, who starts for the Yankees on Monday, which adds to our confidence.
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This game is all about fading Minnesota starter Bailey Ober. He got torched for eight runs on nine hits in his first start of the season against the Royals, recording just four outs. After not pitching for more than a week, he now has to face the Dodgers. That figures to be a sign of trouble ahead. Ohtani is poised to be a beneficiary of that, as he has multiple hits in four straight games. He also has five extra-base hits in those four games and eight in 12 total games. While the odds aren’t that favorable, this feels like a safe wager.
In limited action against Ober in his career, Freeman is 2 for 3 with an RBI. More importantly, he’s batting .333 on the season and hits right behind Ohtani with Mookie Betts hitting in front of Ohtani. In a game in which Los Angeles is likely to score a lot of runs, Freeman should have plenty of RBI opportunities. We’ll ignore the fact that he has two hits and no RBI in his last four games, with plus odds, we’ll take our chances on Freeman getting back on track.
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It was surprising to see Gallen get plus odds for a relatively low strikeout total. While he had just three strikeouts against the Rockies when he faced them on opening day, Gallen could easily double that. The entire Colorado roster has a total of 45 strikeouts in 142 career at-bats against Gallen. That should equate to at least one per inning, meaning Gallen just has to pitch six innings in this game, which he did in his last start against the Yankees. Colorado is also averaging 9.4 strikeouts per game, which is another good omen.
In addition to favoring Gallen, it’s a good idea to fade Colorado starter Kyle Freeland, who allowed 10 runs in 2.1 innings against Arizona on opening day. Most of Arizona’s hitters have a strong track record against him, including Suarez, who is 5 for 14 with a double against the lefty. Suarez is batting .316 on the season and has two doubles in his last four games. With such a favorable matchup against Freeland, he should be able to collect multiple bases.
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