Best MLB Prop Bets This Weekend | MLB Player Props September 16-17

Houston Astros vs Kansas City Royals

My Pick: Cole Ragans Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-150 at DraftKings Sportsbook)

While the odds aren’t great, this is the safest bet of the weekend. Cole Ragans (6-4, 3.01 ERA) has been fantastic for the Royals since joining the rotation on July 15. The 25-year-old has a 1.69 ERA since then, leaving opposing hitters baffled game after game. As his ERA has dropped, his strikeout rate has jumped up. The lefty has struck out at least five batters in his last eight starts, and many have come against talented offenses. We think his strikeout totals are more than just a fluke, and he will prove that again in this one.

Ragans did face the Astros back in April, allowing two runs and striking out three over four innings. However, he has become a much better pitcher since then. He has gained more confidence, and it has helped him master his control. That has boosted his strikeout total while lowering his walks, and that will be on full display against Houston tonight. 

While the Astros offense has been vastly improved since getting Jose Altuve back, they have cooled off of late. They have scored ten runs over their last four games, with six coming against the A’s. The lack of offense led to a crucial series loss against Oakland, showing that things just aren’t right for this lineup. That will work in Ragan’s favor tonight.

Cincinnati Reds vs New York Mets

My Pick: Pete Alonso Over 0.5 Home Runs (+330 at PointsBet Sportsbook)

Alonso is one of the streakiest hitters in the league, but he has been producing consistently so far in September. He owns a .289 batting average and .711 slugging percentage, with five home runs and 13 RBIs this month. There is no better power hitter in the league than Alonso when he is hot, and we are going to profit from that tonight.

Another reason we are locking this in is that the Mets first baseman has had an extra-base hit in four straight games, including a home run he crushed against Arizona last night. He is dialed in and still has a chance to finish the season as the home run and RBI leader, which seems to be a motivating factor given the Mets' lackluster 2023 campaign. 

Alonso will be up against Andrew Abbott (8-5, 3.64 ERA) tonight. The young Reds starter was fantastic in his first two months, but things have fallen apart of late. Since August 1, Abbott has a 6.09 ERA and has allowed five home runs. While that isn’t a monster total, he also hasn’t faced many hitters like Alonso. Considering how hot the Mets slugger has been, we think he has no problem taking advantage of Abbott’s struggles tonight.

Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays

My Pick: Chris Bassitt to Record a Win (+175 at DraftKings Sportsbook)

This AL East battle is our third and final prop bet of the weekend. While we like Chris Bassitt (14-8, 3.83 ERA), we are betting more against Chris Sale (6-4, 4.88 ERA) tonight. Injuries have ravaged the seven-time All-Star and he has become a mixed bag for this Boston team. While he has shown flashes of the ace he once was, the 34-year-old has been hammered by good offenses. That was on full display in his previous start, where he allowed seven runs (six earned) over four innings against Baltimore. 

By comparison, Chris Bassitt has been a consistent arm for this Toronto team. He has gotten better as the season goes on, posting a 3.03 ERA over five August starts. While he struggled in his previous start, that came against a Rangers team that has been tagging everyone for a lot of runs. That won’t be the case tonight, as he matches up with a Boston pitcher who has been allowing some monster run totals.