Best MLB Prop Bets This Weekend | MLB Player Props, July 15-16

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Toronto Blue Jays

My Pick: Zac Gallen under 5.5 strikeouts (-107 at Caesars Sportsbook)

There is no denying that Zac Gallen (11-3, 3.04 ERA) is one of the best pitchers in baseball, but he has not looked like it on the road in 2023. He owns an ugly 5.08 ERA across nine road games. Those struggles have even cost him against teams like the Pirates and Tigers, and now he’ll be up against one of the best offenses in baseball. The righty’s struggles have also affected his strikeout totals, and he has struck out more than six just once over his last six road starts. We see him getting into trouble early, leading to a short start and a strikeout total of under 6.

It feels like this Blue Jays offense is finally coming together. They have had issues with consistency, but they have been playing up to their talent level over the last couple of weeks. That charge has been led by Vladimir Guerrero Jr, who followed up his Home Run Derby title by going deep against the Diamondbacks last night. Bo Bichette also appears to be getting hot again, as he has a batting average of over .330 in July. His power numbers are down, but he has been able to get on base for Tornoto’s many power hitters. Gallen is great, but the Blue Jays have the edge at home tonight.

Milwaukee Brewers vs Cincinnati Reds

My Pick: Willy Adames over 0.5 home runs (+310 at DraftKings Sportsbook)

Willy Adames has had a terrible season, but things have finally been turning around for him in July. After posting a brutal .185 batting average in June, he has a .308 average so far in July. Along with his improved hitting has come a resurgence of his power, and he now has four home runs over his last six games. Adames is seeing the ball well, bringing about a return of his confidence. The shortstop has only faced Andrew Abbott three times in his career, but he has two hits against him, one of which was a home run.

Reds’ starter Andrew Abbott (4-1, 2.38) has been a massive reason for the Reds' surprising success this season. He has dominated and has three scoreless starts since being called up on June 5. However, we saw things come apart when he faced Milwaukee before the All-Star break. The rookie was sharp against them in his MLB debut on June 5, but the Brew Crew figured him out when they faced him again before the All-Star break. Abbott lasted just 4 ⅓ innings, allowing six earned runs on nine hits in the loss. Three of those runs were driven in by Adames, which will undoubtedly be in the back of the rookie pitcher’s mind tonight. Expect the Brewers to come out confidently and shake Abbott early, leading to some mistakes that Adames will capitalize on. 

Cleveland Guardians vs Texas Rangers

My Pick: Corey Seager over 0.5 home runs (+350 at PoinstBet Sportsbook)

Corey Seager is having a special season. After missing a month earlier this year, he has returned to become one of the top three hitters in baseball. He owns a .355 batting average, which has risen over the last two months. Now, his power is starting to kick into high gear. The shortstop has three home runs over his previous six games, including one against the Guardians last night. The Rangers needed a win like that to stop their losing skid and regain momentum. They got that last night, and we see it carrying over today. Considering that Seager will be up against a struggling rookie on the mound tonight, we love his chances to add to his home run total.

Gavin Williams (1-1, 4.01 ERA) is the rookie the Guardians will have on the mound tonight. Aside from a great start against the lowly Royals, Williams has been hit pretty hard all season. His four starts have come against the Royals (twice), Braves, and A’s. The Braves game is the one we are looking at tonight, as they represent the only good lineup Williams has faced. He gave up three home runs over 6 ⅓ innings against Atlanta, which is a strong sign he will be in trouble against the red-hot Seager tonight. Look for him to have a rough night and for Seager to tag him for a home run in the first four innings.