The Los Angeles Dodgers did their jobs in the first two games of the World Series. The team took a 2-0 series lead at home, which gives them approximately an 80% chance of winning the World Series based on MLB history.
The Dodgers will be an underdog for the first time in the World Series in Game 3. Walker Buehler will take the ball for the Dodgers, and while he hasn’t been good, it’s hard to resist Los Angeles for plus money.
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Let’s dive into our three-leg parlay that you can get at +336.
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The Yankees were the best team in the AL East all season because Aaron Judge was elite at the plate. Judge will win American League MVP this year, but he hasn’t been the same type of player in the postseason.
Judge batted .322 with 58 home runs, 144 RBI, and a 1.159 OPS in the regular season. He was an offensive star the entire season, which is what is needed for the Yankees to win the World Series.
However, based on Judge’s recent performances, we can’t trust him to perform in this contest. Judge is 6-40 in the playoffs with 19 strikeouts.
He had somewhat of a pulse in the first two playoff rounds, but this hasn’t been the case in the World Series. The strikeouts and poor at-bats are stacking for the MVP, so it will be interesting to see if the home crowd can will him to a victory.
We’re banking on Judge being limited again, even with Buehler on the mound. Considering Judge isn’t hitting the baseball, we’re leaning toward the Dodgers winning outright.
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The pitchers in this contest are making us lean over on the 8.5-run total. The Dodgers will start Buehler, and he has been a liability for Los Angeles this season.
Buehler was one of the best pitchers in baseball before his most recent arm injury, but he hasn’t looked the part in 2024. Buehler has a lot of big-game experience, which will be valuable coming into a hostile Yankee Stadium crowd.
Nevertheless, the numbers don’t lie, and Buehler has struggled in 2024. This season, the pitcher is 1-6 with a 5.38 ERA and a 1.55 WHIP.
His numbers have been even worse on the road. He has a 6.53 ERA and hasn’t been great this season. Buehler will allow runs, especially with the short porch in left field.
Clarke Schmidt has also been bad this postseason. He has allowed nine hits in 9.1 innings with four earned runs. We don’t expect Schmidt to be on the mound too long in this contest, and the Dodgers have also shaken up the Yankees bullpen, so runs should be scored.
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We are taking Freddie Freeman to record a hit to close our parlay. Freeman’s confidence should be through the roof following his walk-off grand slam and second home run of the World Series in Game 2.
Freeman has been pounding the ball. He should see beach balls at the plate, so we anticipate another big outing. If this were a straight bet, we would be more ambitious than just playing a hit prop.
Yet, we want the parlay to be realistic, and Freeman to record at hit at -210 has solid value.
In Game 1, Freeman was 2-5 with a home run, triple, and four RBIs. He was 1-4 with a home run in Game 2.
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