Best MLB Bets Today | MLB Picks, September 29

This is the final Friday of the MLB regular season! Let’s finish the year off with a bang. For all picks articles throughout the playoffs, make sure to check WSN daily. 

Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles 

• Time: 7:10 PM ET
• Starting Pitchers: Nick Pivetta (BOS) vs John Means (BAL)
• Moneyline: Red Sox (+126) | Orioles (-148)
• Run Line: Red Sox +1.5 (-170) | Orioles -1.5 (+140)
• Total: Over 8 (-110) | Under 8 (-110) 

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook. See different MLB betting sites for more betting opportunities! 

My Pick: Orioles ML (-148)

The Boston Red Sox had a season to forget in 2023. They’re going to finish in last place in the AL East with a record below .500. There was a time when Boston was in the playoff hunt, but this dream slowly slipped away in 2023. 

The Red Sox are ready for the offseason, and some serious changes will be made in the front office. Ownership already fired Chaim Bloom from the GM role and will look to fill this as quickly as possible. 

Boston needs to make a splash in the offseason to compete with teams like the Baltimore Orioles. Baltimore has won the AL East and will enter the playoffs as the first seed in the American League. This is a massive accomplishment for a team with a win total of 76.5 games. 

Baltimore is loaded with young stars who exceeded expectations. They played well in every game phase and dominated on the road. Baltimore’s ability to win on the road is why they will succeed in the playoffs.

Baltimore is seeking triple-digit wins in 2023, and they will get it against the Red Sox. Boston has been horrendous on the road, and hasn’t been able to score runs. The combination of their bad pitching and road offense is a terrible combination versus the Orioles. 

Nick Pivetta will throw for the Red Sox. He is 9-9 with a 4.25 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP. Over 135.2 innings, he has fanned 173 batters. This is why he has been decent for the Red Sox, but his walk rate is very high. Baltimore will take advantage of this flaw throughout the game. 

John Means will pitch for the Orioles. He is 1-1 with a 2.6 ERA and a 0.81 WHIP in 17.1 innings. Means is coming off Tommy John’s surgery, but he hasn’t skipped a beat since returning to the show. 

If Means stays locked in throughout the postseason, the Orioles will be dangerous. Baltimore has scored 38 more runs than Boston, and they have a 3.96 ERA as a team. Baltimore won’t play in the Wild Card, so look for the team to go hard in their final series of the year. 

Philadelphia Phillies @ New York Mets

• Time: 7:10 PM ET
• Starting Pitchers: Taijuan Walker (PHI) vs Tylor Megill (NYM)
• Moneyline: Phillies (-118) | Mets (+100)
• Run Line: Phillies -1.5 (+134) | Mets -1.5 (-162)
• Total: Over 8.5 (-110) | Under 8 (-110) 

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.

My Pick: Cubs -1.5 (+110)

The Philadelphia Phillies have punched their ticket to the playoffs, and have a lot of momentum coming into this Mets series. They have been dominant, and owned the Pirates in their last series. Philadelphia will be on the road for their final regular season series of the year. 

Taijuan Walker will be on the mound for the Phillies, and he is having a strong season. The pitcher is 15-5 with a 4.35 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP. Over 165.2 innings, he has allowed 151 hits. His biggest issue has been the walks, as he provided 67 free passes. 

Walker needs to correct this issue heading into the playoffs, but he has still put his team in a position to win throughout the year. 

Walker will throw against Tylor Megill of the Mets. Megill hasn’t been able to save New York, who gave up on the 2023 season a couple of months ago. New York entered the season with World Series expectations, but they crashed hard in the NL East. 

Megill is 8-8 with a 4.92 ERA and a 1.62 WHIP. Over 119 innings, he allowed 137 hits with only 98 strikeouts. Megill can post some solid starts, but there is nothing special about his numbers. Look for the Phillies offense to stay hot, and the Mets to crumble in their final series at home.