Best MLB Bets Today | MLB Picks, October 4

Texas Rangers vs Tampa Bay Rays

• Time: 3:08 EST
• Starting Pitchers: Nathan Eovaldi (TEX) vs Zach Eflin (TB)
• Moneyline: Rangers +130 | Rays -155
• Run Line: Rangers +1.5 (-155) | Rays -1.5 (+130)
• Total: Over 8 (-105) | Under 8 (-115)

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook. See different MLB betting sites for more betting opportunities!  

My Pick: Rays ML

After such a brilliant start to their season, the Rays are in danger of having their postseason end after just two games. Fortunately for the Rays, they were the second-best team in baseball this season when coming off a loss. They also had the second-best home record in baseball and went 51-27 (.654) as a home favorite. All of those trends are pointing toward Tampa bouncing back quickly and forcing a Game 3, especially with Zach Eflin on the mound.

Eflin was tied for third in the big leagues this year with 16 wins while his WHIP of 1.02 was the second-best in the majors among starting pitchers. He’s exactly who the Rays want on the mound in a must-win game, especially since Corey Seager is the only hitter on the Texas roster with more than two career at-bats against him. While he wasn’t quite at his best in September, posting an ERA of 4.00 across five starts, Eflin hasn’t allowed more than three runs in eight consecutive starts. More importantly, the Rays have won the last six games that he’s started and are 9-2 in Eflin’s starts since the start of August. Obviously, Tampa’s lineup will have to put some runs on the board, but Eflin will have them well-positioned to get a win on Wednesday.

Scoring runs should be a little easier for the Rays in Game 2 with Nathan Eovaldi starting for Texas. After a promising start to the season, things fell apart for Eovaldi in September. In his six starts last month, the 33-year-old only pitched 20.1 innings and posted a 9.30 ERA. While coming back from an injury, Eovaldi only managed to pitch five innings twice in September. He figures to have a short leash with the Rangers likely to rely on their bullpen. That doesn’t sound like a winning formula, especially with Eflin on the mound for Tampa, which is why the Rays look poised to even up the series and force a Game 3 on Thursday.

Toronto Blue Jays vs Minnesota Twins

• Time: 4:38 EST
• Starting Pitchers: Jose Berrios (TOR) vs Sonny Gray (MIN)
• Moneyline: Blue Jays +120 | Twins -142
• Run Line: Blue Jays +1.5 (-180) | Twins -1.5 (+154)
• Total: Over 7.5 (-115) | Under 7.5 (-105)

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.

My Pick: Twins ML

A red-hot Toronto lineup was stopped dead in its tracks on Tuesday, putting the Blue Jays in a must-win situation in Game 2 on Wednesday against the Minnesota Twins. Unfortunately for the Jays, they’ll be facing Sonny Gray in a must-win game. On the other side, Jose Berrios will be returning to his former home in the biggest game of his career with his team facing elimination. Berrios hasn’t been as reliable as Gray this season, and with the Twins appearing to have tons of momentum and confidence, look for Minnesota to close out this series quickly.

To be fair, Berrios has a respectable 3.65 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP on the season. He also posted a 3.41 ERA over his five starts in September. But he’s also been a little erratic, giving up four runs in each of his last two starts of the season. He’s now allowed four runs or more in four of his last seven starts. Even worse, the Blue Jays are just 3-6 in the last nine games that Berrios has started, which explains why he’s just 11-12 on the season. To his credit, Berrios tossed 5.2 scoreless innings when he and the Jays visited Minnesota earlier this year. But he also walked five in that game, playing with fire. In Game 1, the Twins seized early opportunities to score runs, and a similar approach in Game 2 could be fatal for Berrios and the Blue Jays.

On the other side, Gray is more than capable of keeping Toronto’s lineup quiet. Despite being just 8-8 on the year, Gray posted a 2.79 ERA, which ranked third in the majors. More importantly, he pitched to a 2.04 ERA in August and a 2.00 ERA in September, so he’s been at the top of his game coming down the stretch. Gray has held opposing teams to one run or less in six of his last seven starts. He also has an extra day of rest coming into this start, which can’t hurt either. The kicker is that Toronto’s entire roster is a combined 18 for 97 (.186) against Gray in their careers, so there is no reason to think that Minnesota’s ace won’t have a strong outing and lead the Twins to a win.

Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies

• Time: 8:08 EST
• Starting Pitchers: Braxton Garrett (MIA) vs Aaron Nola (PHI) 
• Moneyline: Marlins +130 | Phillies -155
• Run Line: Marlins +1.5 (-166) | Phillies -1.5 (+140)
• Total: Over 8 (-115) | Under 8 (-105)

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.

My Pick: Phillies ML

The reigning National League champs are one win away from getting back to the NLDS, as the Philadelphia Phillies look to close out the Miami Marlins in Wednesday’s Game 2. Miami was just 25-36 (.410) as a road underdog this year while the Phillies were 44-24 (.647) as home favorites. Philly also had the fifth-best record in baseball against left-handed starters, so everything appears to be pointing toward the Phillies with Braxton Garrett starting for the Marlins. The Phils will have Aaron Nola on the mound and expect their longtime ace to help them close out the series on Wednesday.

Nola has certainly had his ups and downs in 2023, finishing with a disappointing 4.46 ERA. However, the Phillies have won eight of his last nine starts to close out the season. That stretch includes three wins over teams in the playoffs, including Miami and the mighty Braves. Outside of three hits from Josh Bell, the Miami lineup didn’t produce much in Game 1. The Marlins don’t have a high-powered offense in the first place and could struggle again on Wednesday if Nola is anywhere near his best.

That will put a lot of pressure on Garrett in his first career postseason start. In fairness, Garrett put together a strong season and posted a 2.29 ERA across his four stars in September. The Marlins are also 7-3 in his last 10 starts. However, the Philadelphia roster is a combined 24 for 68 (.353) in their careers against Garrett with an OPS of 1.036.

 The likes of Alec Bohm, Bryce Harper, Trea Turner, and J.T. Realmuto have all knocked him around in the past. In each of his starts against the Phillies this year, Garrett allowed three runs on six hits over five innings. While that’s not terrible, his track record against Philly’s hitters doesn’t inspire much confidence for the Marlins in a must-win game, which is why the Phillies are likely to end this series in two games.