Best MLB Bets Today | MLB Picks, May 3

Atlanta Braves @ Miami Marlins

• Time: 6:40 EST

• Starting Pitchers: Kyle Wright (ATL) vs Braxton Garrett (MIA) 

• Moneyline: Braves -135 - Marlins +115

• Run Line: Braves -1.5 (+122) - Marlins +1.5 (-145)

• Total: Over 8 (-120) - Under 8 (+100)

Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook

My Pick: Marlins +115

We’re going to start today’s bets with an upset special. While the Braves beat the Marlins 6-0 on Tuesday, Miami is poised to bounce back on Wednesday. Granted, the Braves are arguably the best team in the National League right now and a shocking 13-3 on the road. But the Marlins had won four in a row prior to Tuesday’s loss. They are also 10-7 at home and 5-4 as home underdogs this season, so there is value in betting on the Marlins to even the series.

Plus, the Marlins might have the better starting pitcher in this game with lefty Braxton Garrett on the mound. Garrett owns a 2.45 ERA this season, and while his outings have been short, he’s yet to allow more than two runs in any start. Most importantly, Atlanta’s core trio of Austin Riley, Matt Olson, and Ronald Acuna is a combined 1 for 16 in their careers against Garrett, who should be able to keep the Braves off-balance for a few innings.

Meanwhile, despite throwing three scoreless innings against the Marlins in his last outing, this hasn’t been Kyle Wright’s year. He has a 4.86 ERA and a 1.56 WHIP, sometimes hurting himself with walks. Even with a good history against most of Miami’s hitters, Wright is unfamiliar with a few Marlins, including Luis Arraez, who’s batting .435 and often acts as a sparkplug for the Miami lineup. Given Wright’s struggles this year and the chances of Garrett shutting down the Braves early, the Marlins are a good upset pick on Wednesday.

Cleveland Guardians @ New York Yankees

• Time: 7:05 EST

• Starting Pitchers: Shane Bieber (CLE) vs Clarke Schmidt (NYY) 

• Moneyline: Guardians -140 - Yankees +118

• Run Line: Guardians -1.5 (+122) - Yankees +1.5 (-145)

• Total: Over 7.5 (-115) - Under 7.5 (-105)

Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook

My Pick: Guardians -140

The Yankees are a bit of a mess right now, and even playing at home might not be enough for them. Despite a win over Cleveland on Tuesday to set up Wednesday’s rubber match, the Yankees are just 3-7 in their last 10 games. Against the AL Central-leading Guardians, who have a winning record on the road this year, the Yankees aren’t a good upset candidate.

With Aaron Judge, Josh Donaldson, and Giancarlo Stanton on the IL, the Yankees are running out a makeshift lineup every day. The task for that lineup gets more difficult on Wednesday against Shane Bieber. The former Cy Young winner isn’t lighting up the world, but he’s allowed three runs or less in all five starts this season. He’s also given the Guardians at least six innings in all but one start, serving as a bridge to Cleveland’s top relievers. 

Meanwhile, the Yankees will send Clarke Schmidt to the mound on Wednesday. The young righty is 0-3 with a 6.84 ERA and a 1.68 WHIP this year. He got knocked around for five runs on 10 hits over five innings by the Rangers in his last start. While his strikeout rate is good, Schmidt has also allowed seven home runs in just 25 innings this year. Even if the Cleveland lineup isn’t the most potent, players like Josh Bell, Josh Naylor, and Jose Ramirez could all take advantage of Clarke’s propensity for allowing home runs and the short porch in right field at Yankee Stadium. Plus, the Guardians are at full strength, and with Bieber on the mound they are set up to take Wednesday’s rubber match.

Baltimore Orioles @ Kansas City Royals

• Time: 7:40 EST

• Starting Pitchers: Kyle Gibson (BAL) vs Zack Greinke (KCR)

• Moneyline: Orioles -155 - Royals +130

• Run Line: Orioles -1.5 (+105) - Royals +1.5 (-125)

• Total: Over 9 (-110) - Under 9 (-110) 

Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook

My Pick: Orioles -1.5 (+105)

Perhaps the safest bet in baseball on Wednesday is the upstart Orioles beating the Royals. After Baltimore’s 11-7 win on Tuesday, the Orioles are even a good bet to cover the run line, giving the Orioles even more value in this game. Equally important, the Royals are a pitiful 1-13 at home this season and just 10-19 against the spread as an underdog, meaning nearly two-thirds of their losses as an underdog have come by at least two runs, so everything is trending in Baltimore’s favor, including the Orioles winning 12 of their last 14 games, including eight wins by at least two runs.

Plus, the Orioles have Kyle Gibson on the mound on Wednesday. While his 3.93 ERA isn’t perfect, he’s 4-0 this year with Baltimore going 5-1 in his starts. He’ll face a Kansas City lineup that’s already been shut out six times this year and scored two runs or less in 11 of 30 games. Outside of Salvador Perez and Vinnie Pasquantino, the Royals aren’t getting consistent production from their lineup, so repeating their output of seven runs from Tuesday won’t be easy.

That will put a lot on the shoulders of Zack Greinke. The 39-year-old is showing his age, going 0-4 with a 6.10 ERA over his six starts with Kansas City going 1-5 in those starts. He’s allowed at least four runs in his last three starts, so this Baltimore lineup could tee-off on him. Keep in mind that Cedric Mullins, Ryan Mountcastle, Jorge Mateo, and Austin Hays are a combined 15 for 32 (.469) against Greinke in their careers. With Kansas City’s starter struggling against several of Baltimore’s best hitters, the Orioles are poised to stay hot offensively after averaging  6.3 runs per game over their last eight games. That should make it easy for Baltimore to win this game by multiple runs and cover the spread.

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