Best MLB Bets Today | MLB Picks, May 12

The MLB Friday slate has a lot of betting value. There are mismatches with solid odds along with good matchups for hot clubs. These are two ideal scenarios when looking to win some money on baseball. All the stars will be out on Friday, so let’s get into some of the day's best plays. 

San Diego Padres @ Los Angeles Dodgers

• Time: 10:10 PM ET
• Starting Pitchers: Blake Snell (SD) vs Dustin May (LAD)
• Moneyline: Padres (+120) | Dodgers (-142)
• Run Line: Padres +1.5 (-156) | Dodgers -1.5 (+130)
• Total: Over 9 (-115) | Under 9 (-105)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

My Pick: Dodgers ML (-142)

The Los Angeles Dodgers should feel very confident heading into Friday’s matchup. They'll face the Padres, after taking two of three games from them earlier in the week. They’re also coming off a series win over the Brewers and have one of their best pitchers on the mound in Dustin May. May has been fantastic this season, going 4-1 with a 2.68 and a 0.94 WHIP. Over 40.1 innings, he has allowed 23 hits with just one homer. The strikeout numbers haven’t been phenomenal, but he is a master locator. This style of pitching wins in Major League Baseball because very few wings rely on location.

Blake Snell will take the ball for the Padres. He has been terrible at throwing first-pitch strikes. This isn’t the way to beat the Dodgers, who take pitches and have a solid team eye. Snell has a 4.89 ERA and a 1.57 WHIP with 21 walks in 35 innings. San Diego and Los Angeles are relatively even on offense, but the Dodgers are dominant in the power game. 

Los Angeles has blasted 64 homers, compared to San Diego with 41 on the year. The combination of Snell on the hill, and the limited homer capacity for the Padres, makes Friday night’s contest difficult for the visitors. This is why we’re leaning toward the home team in this spot. 

Texas Rangers @ Oakland Athletics

• Time: 9:40 PM ET
• Starting Pitchers: Martin Perez (TEX) vs Ken Waldichuk (OAK)
• Moneyline: Rangers (-198) | Athletics (+166)
• Run Line: Rangers -1.5 (-111) | Athletics +1.5 (-108)
• Total: Over 8.5 (-120) | Under 8.5 (-102)

My Pick: Rangers -1.5 (-111)

The Oakland Athletics have been horrendous this season, and it’s not their fault. This is a Triple-A roster, and it has shown consistently throughout the season. The A’s are 8-31 and 3-16 at home. Their home record is shocking, making our bet in their Friday night matchup more appealing. We’re going to play the Rangers at -1.5 against the Athletics. 

Texas is in a prime run-line spot because they’re on the road against an inferior team. Oakland has no home-field advantage, and the Rangers are guaranteed nine at-bats. The at-bat in the ninth inning gives me confidence they can win this matchup by 2+ runs. Martin Perez will throw for the Rangers, and he is 4-1 with a 3.86 ERA and a 1.55 WHIP. He hasn’t been fantastic, but he’s been a lot better than Ken Waldichuk. 

Waldichuk will pitch for the Athletics, and he is 1-2 with a 7.25 ERA and a 1.75 WHIP. Over 36 innings, he has allowed 45 hits and 12 homers. I expect the Rangers to leave the yard early and often in this contest. The Athletics have a solid offense that can hang with the Rays, but they’ll be challenged by the Texas bullpen. The Rangers should have an easier time hitting in the late innings, so look for the Rangers to cover on the run line. 

Pittsburgh Pirates @ Baltimore Orioles

• Time: 7:05 PM ET
• Starting Pitchers: Johan Oviedo (PIT) vs Kyle Bradish (BAL)
• Moneyline: Pirates (+130) | Orioles (-154)
• Run Line: Pirates +1.5 (-160) | Orioles -1.5 (+132)
• Total: Over 8.5 (-115) | Under 8.5 (-105)

My Pick: Orioles ML (-154)

The Baltimore Orioles are slightly juiced in this spot, but the Pirates have come back down to earth. Pittsburgh started the season as one of the best in MLB, but they hit a wall. Nobody expected the Pirates to be good, and this narrative held up when they faced some legitimate competition. Pittsburgh has won just one game in their past ten and lost three straight series to the Rays, Blue Jays, and Rockies. As we saw in their last series, Baltimore is putting together consistent wins. They bested Tampa Bay in two of three contests and enter Friday’s game at 24-13. This record has them positioned in the Wild Card if the season ended today, but they currently hold the second-best record in the American League. 

Kyle Bradish and Johan Oviedo will throw for their respective teams. They both have an ERA approaching six, give up over a hit per inning, and aren’t elite strikeout pitchers. This game is going to come down to the better offense, and this award belongs to the Orioles. Baltimore has scored 23 more runs and has a better bottom of the order. Look for this portion of the lineup to lead Baltimore to a win on Tuesday. 

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