Best MLB Bets Today | MLB Picks, May 11

San Diego Padres @ Minnesota Twins

• Time: 1:10 PM EST
• Starting Pitchers: RHP Yu Darvish (SD) vs RHP Bailey Ober (MIN)
• Moneyline: Padres -120 | Twins +102
• Run Line: Padres -1.5 (+134) | Twins +1.5 (-162)
• Total: Over 8.5 (+100) | Under 8.5 (-122)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

My Pick: Padres -120

The Padres (19-17) had a rough start to the season, starting with an 8-11 record. They have found their groove since then, going 11-6. Their offense has finally shown signs of waking up, thanks in part to the long-awaited return of Fernando Tatis Jr (.270 BA, 4 HR, 10 RBI). He is still shaking off some rust after a long absence, but he seems to be returning to form quickly. In addition to Tatis, Juan Soto (.244 BA, 5 HR, 17 RBI) is finally heating up. He has a .368 average over the last week, second only to Manny Machado (.412 average last week). Those are some big hitters, and they should provide a challenge for the Twins today.

Yu Darvish (2-2, 3.19 ERA) will get the start for the Padres tonight. The veteran continues to be one of the top pitchers in baseball at 35 years old. He is coming off an impressive win against the Dodgers, where he allowed four hits and one earned run over 6 ⅔ innings. He will have an advantage tonight against a Twins lineup with a .222 career batting average against him. The Twins' offense has been a problem this season, and that will continue against Darvish today.

Bailey Ober (2-0, 0.98 ERA) will take the mound for the Twins tonight. While his numbers have been impressive over the last couple of seasons, they don’t tell the whole story. He has allowed just two earned runs in his three starts in 2023. However, those came against some of the league's worst offenses in the Guardians, Royals, and Nationals. That was also true last season, as he faced the Royals, White Sox, and Tigers in all but three of his starts. Now he’ll be up against the best offense he has seen, so expect it to be a hard lesson for the young pitcher. 

San Fransisco Giants @ Arizona Diamondbacks

• Time: 9:40 PM EST
• Starting Pitchers: RHP Alex Cobb (SF) vs LHP Tommy Henry (ARI)
• Moneyline: Giantes -142 | Diamondbacks +120
• Run Line: Giants -1.5 (+115) | Diamondbacks +1.5 (-138)
• Total: Over 9.5 +100 | Under 9.5 (-122)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

My Pick: Under 9.5 (-122 at FanDuel Sportsbook)

The Giants (16-20) and Diamondbacks (20-17) will both be desperate for a win today. Both teams have lost three of their last four games as they attempt to stay in the running for the NL West. While bookmakers view this as a high-scoring battle, we think this total is too high. While the Diamondbacks have shown they can hit and the Giants have been improving, this pitching matchup is much better than this total shows.

Alex Cobb (2-1, 2.01 ERA) will take the mound for the Giants tonight. He has been one of the best pitchers in baseball, ranking sixth among starting pitchers in ERA. He had a rough start to the season, but the veteran has allowed a combined four earned runs over his last four starts (21 innings). That includes a complete game shutout of the Cardinals. Cobb’s last start was fantastic, shutting out the Brewers over seven innings. While the pitcher does give up some hits, he has done a great job keeping runs off the board. Expect that trend to continue tonight.

Cobb is only half of the reason we like the bet. The other half is Diamondbacks rookie Tommy Henry (1-0, 5.17 ERA). This will be the young pitcher's four starts of the season, and he will be looking to build off his last start. Henry was impressive in his last start, allowing two runs over six innings against the Nationals. He has gotten a little better in each start this season, and he should have an excellent chance to continue that against the Giants tonight.

Tampa Bay Rays @ New York Yankees

• Time: 7:05 PM EST
• Starting Pitchers: RHP Drew Rasmussen (TB) vs RHP Domingo German (NYY)
• Moneyline: Rays -130 | Yankees +110
• Run Line: Rays -1.5 (+122) | Yankees +1.5 (-146)
• Total: Over 8.5 (-115) | Under 8.5 (-105)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

My Pick: Rays -1.5 (+122 at FanDuel Sportsbook)

We love the Rays to get an easy win tonight for a few reasons. The first is the inconsistent play of the Yankees (21-17) this season. While they were outstanding against the lowly A’s in their last series, the Yankees have struggled against the league's better teams all year. That includes dropping two of three games to the Rays earlier this month. Their offense has had a habit of disappearing, ranking in the bottom half of the league in batting average (.233) and runs (157). They can hit for power, but not consistently enough to cover for their other failings.

Another reason we love this bet is Drew Rasmussen (3-2, 3.11 ERA). He is coming off his first full season as a member of the Rays rotation, posting an incredible 2.84 ERA in 2022. The Yankees have been among the teams to struggle to figure Rasmussen out. He shut them out over six innings last season and over 5 ⅔ innings this season. The Yankees lineup owns a combined .222 batting average against the Rays starter, giving us all the more reason to roll with the Rays' run line tonight. 

The final reason we love this bet is Domingo German (2-2, 4.35 ERA). Though he had a solid 2022 season, he has reverted to his old form in 2023. He has just two quality starts over seven appearances this season. His last start came against this Rays team, which he allowed to score twice over five innings. Not a terrible start, but now the Rays will have familiarity in their favor. Expect him to struggle, allowing the Rays to cruise to a win.

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