Best MLB Bets Today | MLB Picks, May 10

Miami Marlins vs Arizona Diamondbacks

• Time: 3:40 EST
• Starting Pitchers: Edward Cabrera (MIA) vs Merrill Kelly (ARI)
• Moneyline: Marlins +120 - Diamondbacks -140
• Run Line: Marlins +1.5 (-155) - Diamondbacks -1.5 (+135)
• Total: Over 8.5 (-115) - Under 8.5 (-105)

Odds courtesy of DraftKings

My Pick: Diamondbacks -140

The Marlins won Tuesday’s game between these teams to set up a rubber match on Wednesday. However, the Diamondbacks are still in better form right now, winning seven of their last 11 games whereas Miami is just 2-6 since the calendar flipped to May. The Marlins are also fighting an uphill battle in terms of the starting pitching matchup on Wednesday, and since the Miami offense is rarely reliable, the D’Backs are the smart pick in this game.

Merrill Kelly is bringing his 2.75 ERA into Wednesday’s game. More importantly, Kelly has pitched at least six innings while allowing just one run in three of his last four starts. The D’Backs have won all three of those games with Kelly being the winning pitcher each time. He’ll face a Miami lineup averaging just 3.1 runs per game in May. Avisail Garcia and Garrett Cooper being on the IL weakens the Marlins offensively even further. Key figures like Jazz Chisholm and Jean Segura are also slumping right now, so the Marlins aren't likely to get much going offensively.

Meanwhile, the Marlins can’t rely on Edward Cabrera to deliver a strong start. The righty has a 4.78 ERA and a 1.66 WHIP, frequently hurting himself with walks. Cabrera has also struggled to go deep in games. That doesn't bode well against an Arizona lineup that’s averaging 6.3 runs per game over the last six games. The D’Backs have scored at least eight runs in three of those games, so they’re likely to do some damage against a problematic pitcher like Cabrera, giving Arizona the series win.

Toronto Blue Jays vs Philadelphia Phillies

• Time: 4:05 EST
• Starting Pitchers: Kevin Gausman (TOR) vs Zack Wheeler (PHI)
• Moneyline: Blue Jays -110 - Phillies -110
• Run Line: Blue Jays +1.5 (-210) - Phillies -1.5 (+175)
• Total: Over 8.5 (-110) - Under 8.5 (-110)

Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook

My Pick: Phillies -110

This game is a toss-up, so there is value on both sides. But the Phillies have been better at home than their overall record indicates. They’ve also started to come alive offensively, giving them an edge whereas the Blue Jays still aren’t playing up to their potential and have been a .500 team on the road after losing in Philly on Tuesday.

Zack Wheeler is the ideal candidate to start Wednesday’s matinee for the Phillies. His numbers have been mediocre this year with a 4.26 ERA and took a loss against the Red Sox in his last start. But his best starts have come at home and he’s exactly who the Phillies want on the mound with a chance to build on their momentum. Wheeler has also been able to hold most of Toronto’s big bats in check in limited appearances against them, as Matt Chapman, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette, and George Springer are a combined 5 for 19 (.263) against Wheeler.

On the other side, Kevin Gausman has been vulnerable at times this season, especially on the road. Despite some brilliant starts, he got lit up for eight runs on 10 hits against the Red Sox in his last start. He also has some troubling numbers against Philadelphia’s top hitters. Bryce Harper is 8 for 18 (.444) in his career against Gausman. Also, Nick Castellanos has a .970 OPS in 22 at-bats against Gausman while Trea Turner is 7 for 21 with two doubles against Gausman. Castellanos and Harper are also among Philly's hottest hitters right now. If the Phillies can get to Gausman, Wheeler should be able to contain Toronto’s lineup enough to give the Phillies a third straight win.

St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs

• Time: 7:40 EST
• Starting Pitchers: Jordan Montgomery (STL) vs Justin Steele (CHC)
• Moneyline: Cardinals -105 - Cubs -115
• Run Line: Cardinals -1.5 (+158) - Cubs +1.5 (-190)
• Total: Over 8 (+100) - Under 8 (-120)

Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook

My Pick: Cubs -115

This is another toss-up game with value on both sides. With three straight wins, the Cardinals are finally starting to show some signs of life while the Cubs have lost three in a row and are in danger of getting swept at home by their bitter rivals. But with Justin Steele on the mound, that isn’t going to happen. St. Louis is still the worst team in the NL Central at the moment, giving the Cubs a lot of value in this game.

Much of that value comes from Steele, who is 5-0 with a 1.45 ERA and a 0.95 WHIP. The lefty is yet to give up more than two runs in any of his seven starts this season. In fact, he’s pitched at least six innings and allowed one run or less in four of his seven starts, including his last time out against the Marlins. Even with nine runs in the first two games of this series, the St. Louis lineup still isn't clicking. As long as Steele continues to perform at a high level, he gives Chicago an obvious boost in this game.

Meanwhile, the Cardinals have lost Jordan Montgomery’s last five starts with the southpaw taking the loss in four of them. In fairness, the Cards have been shut out in three of those five games, as Montgomery still owns a solid 3.29 ERA this year. But there is something concerning about his team consistently failing to give him run support. As mentioned, that’ll be even more difficult with the Cubs sending Steele to the mound. 

Keep in mind the Cubs have the power of Patrick Wisdom and Cody Bellinger anchoring their lineup while Ian Happ has heated up as the team’s table setter over the past week. With the Cubs only needing a few runs to win wit Steele on the mound, they should generate enough offense against Montgomery to salvage the series.

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