Best MLB Bets Today | MLB Picks, June 30

It’s Fourth of July weekend, and Major League Baseball has given us a ton of marquee series to bet on during the holiday. No sport goes better with America than baseball, and betting goes perfectly with both. The action kicks off on Friday and we have a couple of wagers that have caught our eye at WSN. We have been successful through the first 100 games of the season, and we plan on continuing the wins Friday. We give plays every day on our site, so make sure to check back daily for our best wagers. Let’s get into the Friday slate! 

New York Yankees @ St. Louis Cardinals

• Time: 8:15 PM ET
• Starting Pitchers: Luis Severino (NYY) vs Matthew Liberatore (STL)
• Moneyline: Yankees (-110) | Cardinals (-106)
• Run Line: Yankees -1.5 (+140) | Cardinals +1.5 (-170)
• Total: Over 9.5 (-105) | Under 9.5 (-115)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook. Check out other MLB betting sites for more betting opportunities!

My Pick: Yankees ML (-108)

The New York Yankees haven’t been playing great baseball, but they seemed to catch some steam in the early portion of the week. New York faced Oakland for three games this week, and that franchise is perfect for gaining confidence against this year. Oakland won the first game of the series, but that victory seemed to wake up the Yankees' entire roster.

Domingo German followed up the loss with the 24th perfect game in MLB history. If you’re wondering if a perfect game counts against the Athletics, the answer is yes. Oakland’s roster isn’t the best in baseball, but they’re still a big-league team and German was excellent throughout his start. New York then covered in the final game of the series on Thursday in dominant fashion. 

Any signs of life from the Yankees’ offense are positive considering they haven’t hit the ball lately without Aaron Judge. Judge has a torn tendon in his toe and is no longer starting for the team. There is hope that Judge will play again in 2023, but the team must learn to adjust without the MVP slugger. The Yankees will travel to St. Louis for an interleague series over the weekend against the Cardinals. 

St. Louis was spanked on Thursday against Houston by a whooping 14-0 margin. St Louis's pitching staff has been bad and their offense has been wildly inconsistent. The Cardinals will throw Matthew Liberatore, who is 1-2 with a 5.60 ERA and a 1.65 WHIP. He has 14 walks in 27 innings of work. Liberatore has a decent arsenal, but he consistently misses spots. The walks put him in a difficult situation, and then he gets hit. His walk rate is too high for any pitcher to have success, no matter how talented.

Luis Severino will take the ball for New York. He hasn’t been much better with a 5.25 ERA and a 1.5 WHIP. He has allowed eight homers in 36 innings, which has been his biggest vice. The total is set at 9.5 for a reason, and we do expect runs to be scored in this matchup. However, the Yankees have found ways to win in a tough division. The Cardinals haven’t been tested with their schedule and they’re still way below .500. We trust the Yankees as road favorites in this spot. 

Detroit Tigers @ Colorado Rockies

• Time: 8:10 PM ET
• Starting Pitchers: Michael Lorenzen (DET) vs Austin Gomber (COL)
• Moneyline: Tigers (-122) | Rockies (+104)
• Run Line: Tigers -1.5 (+130) | Rockies +1.5 (-156)
• Total: Over 11.5 (-112) | Under 11.5 (-108)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

My Pick: Tigers ML (-122)

The Rockies are a very streaky team at home, as they can compete with the best teams in baseball at times. Colorado played the Los Angeles Dodgers tough this week, even though they didn’t take advantage of multiple opportunities. The Rockies will have an easier matchup this weekend against the Detroit Tigers. 

However, they’re still a home underdog and it won’t be easy for them to prevail with Austin Gomber on the mound. Gomber is horrendous, and he hasn’t figured out how to get batters out this season. The pitcher has a 7.01 ERA and a 1.61 WHIP in 2023, and it’s not like he hasn’t thrown a ton of innings. Gomber has pitched enough for his numbers to adjust back to the league average, but he has consistently been terrible. The wing has allowed 95 hits with 19 homers and 29 walks over 77 innings of work.

The Tigers will have one of their best pitchers to counter the struggling Gomber. This is the primary reason they’re favored in this spot. Michael Lorenzen is only 2-5 but this is due to lackluster offensive support. The pitcher has a 3.97 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP in 77 innings. He occasionally gets into trouble which leads to long home runs, but when he is locked in, he can get outs consistently. The Rockies have superior offensive numbers in many categories, but the power favors the Tigers. A few homers throughout this game and a strong performance from Lorenzen will lead to a Detroit victory on Friday.