Best MLB Bets Today | MLB Picks, June 21

Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies

• Time: 9:38 EST
• Starting Pitchers: AJ Smith-Shawver (ATL) vs Aaron Nola (PHI)
• Moneyline: Braves +105  - Phillies -125
• Run Line: Braves +1.5 (-190) - Phillies -1.5 (+158)
• Total: Over 9 (+105) - Under 9 (-125)

Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook

My Pick: Phillies ML

Heading into Tuesday’s series opener between the Braves and Phillies, both were among the hottest teams in baseball. After Atlanta’s 4-2 win, the Braves have won seven in a row and continue to build on their lead atop the NL East. However, they are slight underdogs on Wednesday against the Phillies, who had previously won six in a row. Despite Tuesday’s loss, the Phillies have won 13 of their last 16 and haven’t lost back-to-back games since June 1 and 2, so they are poised to get a win and even up the series.

Even if he’s not having his best season, the Phillies should feel good about having Aaron Nola on the mound in Wednesday’s game. Despite an unimpressive 4.66 ERA this year, Nola has a 1.10 WHIP and is racking up tons of strikeouts, so the stuff is still there. He’s also pitched at least six innings in all but one start this year, so he can be trusted to go deep in the game and provide a little protection for Philly’s subpar bullpen. Granted, Ronald Acuna Jr. and Austin Riley have gotten the better of him during his career. But Nola has solid numbers against the rest of Atlanta’s lineup, so he should be able to pitch around some of the more dangerous parts of Atlanta’s lineup.

Meanwhile, the Braves will be sending 20-year-old AJ Smith-Shawver to the mound for his third career start and fourth appearance overall. He’s looked good thus far with a 2.03 ERA, but his two previous starts came at home against the Nationals and Rockies. He’ll now be pitching in a hitter-friendly ballpark on the road against a lineup that has some serious hitters. Bryson Stott has actually been Philly’s hottest hitter over the last two weeks. But Kyle Schwarber, Nick Castellanos, J.T. Realmuto, and others have also produced during the team’s recent upswing, putting the Phillies in a good position to do damage against the rookie and get back on track behind Nola.

Boston Red Sox vs Minnesota Twins

• Time: 7:40 EST
• Starting Pitchers: Garrett Whitlock (BOS) vs Sonny Gray (MIN)
• Moneyline: Red Sox +110 - Twins -130
• Run Line: Red Sox +1.5 (-178) - Twins -1.5 (+150)
• Total: Over 8.5 (+100) - Under 8.5 (-120)

Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook

My Pick: Twins ML

Even a six-game winning streak hasn’t been enough to carry the Red Sox out of last place in the AL East. However, they are surely on a hot streak and have taken care of business against the Twins during the first two games of this week’s series, outscoring Minnesota 19-7 over two games. However, a pitching matchup between Garrett Whitlock and Sonny Gray will favor the Twins and help them to snap a three-game losing streak.

Gray on the mound always gives the Twins a chance to win. Even if things haven’t played out that way recently, Minnesota was 5-1 in his starts in April. He also owns a 2.37 ERA on the season and has taken just one loss this year. He’s exactly who the Twins need to put a stop to Boston’s momentum. That won’t be easy with the Red Sox scoring at least six runs in six of their last seven games. But Gray might be one of the few pitchers in baseball who can cool down the Red Sox after their recent run.

As for Whitlock, he has a 4.38 ERA on the season, so the Red Sox are never sure what they’re getting from him. He’s looked good in his last two starts, but those games were against a watered-down Yankees team and the Rockies at home. In three of his seven starts this year, Whitlock has allowed at least four runs while failing to go beyond five innings in four of his seven starts. Even if the Twins aren’t in an offensive groove at the moment, they’re still averaging 4.4 runs per game over their last 10 games. They should be able to give Gray enough run support to eke out a win on Wednesday.

Texas Rangers vs Chicago White Sox

• Time: 8:10 EST
• Starting Pitchers: Martin Perez (TEX) vs Michael Kopech (CHW)
• Moneyline: Rangers -115  - White Sox -110
• Run Line: Rangers -1.5 (+143) - White Sox +1.5 (-170)
• Total: Over 9.5 (-110) - Under  (-110)

Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook

My Pick: White Sox ML

Surprisingly, Wednesday’s game between the Rangers and White Sox is getting even odds. While the White Sox have had their problems this year, they’ve been solid at home. They also have a fighting chance with Michael Kopech on the mound. Meanwhile, the Rangers have cooled off lately despite holding a comfortable lead atop the AL West. Martin Perez doesn’t move the needle that much for them, giving the White Sox good value at home in Wednesday’s rubber match.

Perez might be 6-3 on the season, but his season has gone downhill since the end of April. In May, the lefty posted a 6.91 ERA and owns a 4.96 ERA during his three starts in June. He’s also taken the loss in his last two starts. Also, the hitters on Chicago’s roster are hitting a combined 22 for 52 (.423) in their careers against Perez. Somehow, everyone on the White Sox sees the ball well against Perez. With right-handed hitters like Andrew Vaughn, Jake Burger, and Luis Robert providing plenty of power in the middle of the lineup, Perez could have a hard time giving the Rangers a quality start.

On the other hand, the White Sox have been getting some good performances out of Kopech lately. He pitched to a 2.75 ERA in May and has stayed hot in June, owning a 1.65 ERA over his last three starts. The White Sox are also 5-4 in his starts since the beginning of May. The bottom line is that Kopech has allowed two runs in seven of his last nine starts, so he’s the perfect candidate to handle the Texas lineup and position the White Sox for a win on Wednesday. Keep in mind the Rangers are just 5-8 in their last 13 games, so it wouldn’t be a surprise to see them lose to the White Sox for the second straight day.

More of Our MLB Picks for Today

Check out our favorite MLB sportsbooks before placing your bets! 

• MLB Player Props June 21