Best MLB Bets Today | MLB Picks, June 19

New York Mets vs Houston Astros

• Time: 8:10 PM ET
• Starting Pitchers: Max Scherzer vs Hunter Brown
• Moneyline: Mets (+105) | Astros (-125)
• Runline: Mets +1.5 (-200) | Astros -1.5 (+165)
• Total: Over 7.5 (-110) | Under 7.5 (-110)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

My Pick: Astros Moneyline (-125)

Our first MLB best bet for Monday night is for the Houston Astros to defeat the New York Mets at home. The Mets send Max Scherzer to the mound for this Monday night interleague contest, which will likely prompt many bettors to take the Mets to win this matchup. But the Astros are the better wager in this contest in spite of who the Mets are sending to the mound here in Houston.

The truth is that Scherzer has not been as good as expected in the first half of the 2023 MLB season. He has gone just 5-2 with a 4.45 ERA in 56.2 innings of work, giving up just about a hit per inning on the year. Look for him to continue to be closer to mediocre than great in this contest as he faces one of the more dangerous lineups in all of baseball in that of the Astros.

Speaking of the Astros, they send a solid arm to the mound themselves in this game, as they will give Hunter Brown the start. Brown is 6-3 with a 3.35 ERA for the season to this point, and has allowed fewer home runs than Scherzer despite throwing more innings. Look for Brown and the Houston offense to be the driving force behind a win at home in this Monday night matchup.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Milwaukee Brewers

• Time: 8:10 PM ET
• Starting Pitchers: Merrill Kelly vs Corbin Burnes
• Moneyline: Diamondbacks (+105) | Brewers (-125)
• Runline: Diamondbacks +1.5 (-192) | Brewers -1.5 (+162)
• Total: Over 7.5 (-110) | Under 7.5 (-110)

Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook

My Pick: Diamondbacks Moneyline (+105)

Next, we will fade another pitcher that was expected to contend for the NL Cy Young award before the start of the season on Monday night. Corbin Burnes is on the mound for the Milwaukee Brewers as they host the Arizona Diamondbacks. But the value in this matchup rests with the Diamondbacks, who continue to lead the NL West as one of the biggest surprises in the league this season.

Burnes has simply not been as good as he was expected to be when he entered the year as the favorite to win the NL Cy Young award. He is a middling 5-4 on the season, though his 3.44 ERA is certainly a respectable figure. The major problem for Burnes this season has been the fact that his strikeout numbers have not been as big as expected, and that could be a problem once again here.

Meanwhile, one of the hotter pitchers in baseball in the first half of the season has been Merrill Kelly, who is 8-3 with a 3.04 ERA on the year. He has not lost a decision since April 22, going nearly two full months without doing so. Expect that streak to continue in this game as the Diamondbacks continue to turn heads in the National League.

San Diego Padres vs San Francisco Giants

• Time: 9:45 PM ET
• Starting Pitchers: Michael Wacha vs Ryan Walker
• Moneyline: Padres (-110) | Giants (-110)
• Runline: Padres -1.5 (+145) | Giants +1.5 (-175)
• Total: Over 8.5 (-120) | Under 8.5 (EVEN)

Odds courtesy of BetMGM

My Pick: Padres Moneyline (-110)

Our final MLB best bet for Monday is for the San Diego Padres to pick up a win on the road against the San Francisco Giants. In this NL West rivalry game, the Giants enter on a hot streak, having won seven straight games. But that streak should come to an end thanks to the solid pitching of Michael Wacha and the explosive bats of the Padres.

Wacha is 7-2 this season, posting an ERA of 2.89 in his 74.2 innings of work. He has been just what the Padres have needed to remain a competitive baseball team this season, as he doesn’t light opponents up with strikeouts, but he simply finds ways to get hitters out. He will continue to do that in this matchup, ending the winning streak of San Francisco in the process.

The bullpen of the Padres also deserves some credit heading into this series opener, as they did a great job against the best team in baseball in the Tampa Bay Rays over the weekend. San Diego took the final two games of their three game series with Tampa, with their bullpen allowing just two runs combined in those two contests. The relievers of San Diego could be a huge difference-maker as a result.

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