Best MLB Bets Today | MLB Picks, July 21

Friday marks the beginning of the weekend slate, and it’s loaded. There are a lot of epic matchups on the calendar Friday, and the betting value is extensive. We bet on the Friday games weekly at WSN, so check back consistently for all the picks. Let’s take a look at the best value on the board.

San Diego Padres @ Detroit Tigers

• Time: 6:40 PM ET
• Starting Pitchers: Seth Lugo (SD) vs Reese Olson (DET)
• Moneyline: Padres (-144) | Tigers (+122)
• Run Line: Padres -1.5 (+106) | Tigers +1.5 (-128)
• Total: Over 9 (-105) | Under 9 (-115)

 Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook. Check out other MLB betting sites for more betting opportunities!   

 My Pick: Padres ML (-144)

The San Diego Padres have a massive advantage over the Tigers because of their offense. They have scored 61 more runs this season than Detroit, with 31 more homers. The Tigers have performed better than expected this season, but they’re still not on the level of the underperforming Padres. 

Seth Lugo will pitch for San Diego. He is 3-4 with a 3.78 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP. He isn’t overpowering, so Detroit will have opportunities to succeed. Yet, Reese Olson is very hittable for the Tigers with a 3.96 ERA and five homers allowed in 38.2 innings. Detroit’s team ERA is 4.41, while the Padres is at 3.77. The line opened at -130 and has since gone up 15 cents, so get this while you can before it’s too juiced.

San Francisco Giants @ Washington Nationals

• Time: 7:05 PM ET
• Starting Pitchers: Alex Wood (SF) vs Jake Irvin (WAS)
• Moneyline: Giants (-154) | Nationals (+130)
• Run Line: Giants -1.5 (+102) | Nationals +1.5 (-122)
• Total:Over 9.5 (-115) | Under 9.5 (-105)

 Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

My Pick: Giants -1.5 (+102)

The San Francisco Giants have a prime run line spot on the road with a pitching and an offensive advantage. This will quickly turn into a bullpen game because Alex Wood doesn’t tend to go deep into games. When he is on, he can be exceptional, but the numbers aren’t great this season, with a 4.53 ERA and a 1.53 WHIP. 

Jake Irvin will pitch for Washington, and he is 2-5 with a 4.96 ERA and a 1.49 WHIP. I’ll trust Wood over Irvin any day of the week. The Giants are 28-21 on the road, and the Nationals are 15-32 at home. Washington has scored 47 more runs this season and has a much stronger offense than their opponent. 

Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cincinnati Reds

• Time: 7:10 PM ET
• Starting Pitchers: Tommy Henry (ARI) vs Ben Lively (CIN)
• Moneyline: Diamondbacks (+110) | Reds (-130)
• Run Line: Diamondbacks +1.5 (-176) | Reds -1.5 (+146)
• Total: Over 10.5 (-122) | Under 10.5 (+100)

 Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

My Pick: Diamondbacks ML (+110)

The Diamondbacks blew a 4-1 lead to the Braves, but they’ve been hitting the ball consistently lately. This is a positive sign for taking them with the plus money on Friday. Tommy Henry will pitch for the Diamondbacks, and he is 5-2 with a 3.89 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP. There is nothing special about Henry, but the same goes for Ben Lively. 

Lively is 4-5 with a 3.72 ERA and a 1.2 WHIP. He will need run support, but the Reds' offense has been lackluster this week outside of a couple of strong performances. Both offenses can sometimes shine, but I trust the Diamondbacks a little more because of who they’ve succeeded against this season, and their pitching staff trumps Cincinnati. 

New York Mets @ Boston Red Sox

• Time: 7:10 PM ET
• Starting Pitchers: Kodai Senga (NYM) vs James Paxton (BOS)
• Moneyline: Mets (-102) | Red Sox (-116)
• Run Line: Mets -1.5 (+152) | Red Sox +1.5 (-184)
• Total: Over 10.5 (-122) | Under 10.5 (+100)

 Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

 My Pick: Red Sox ML (-116)

The Boston Red Sox dropped a series to the Oakland Athletics, and they can’t afford this as a borderline Wild Card team. The Mets are coming off a tough loss to the White Sox 6-2 that started because of Pete Alonso error. New York has the largest payroll in baseball, but they’ve been awful this season. 

Kodai Senga will pitch, and he has been one of their best wings. He is 7-5 with a 3.2 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP. He struggles with walks but has elite strikeout ability. James Paxton will pitch for Boston, and he is 5-2 with a 3.51 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP. Over 59 innings, he has allowed nine homers but just 44 hits. Outside of a bad start against Chicago, he has been very good over the past month. 

Boston has scored 62 more runs this season and has been better in every aspect of the game. They’ve played well against better opponents, and I expect the same thing on Friday.

Philadelphia Phillies @ Cleveland Guardians 

• Time: 7:10 PM ET
• Starting Pitchers: Ranger Suarez (PHI) vs Gavin Williams (CLE)
• Moneyline: Phillies (-118) | Guardians (+100)
• Run Line: Phillies -1.5 (+140) | Guardians +1.5 (-170)
• Total: Over 8.5 (-108) | Under 8.5 (-112)

 Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

 My Pick: Phillies ML (-118)

The Phillies' price is too good to pass up on Friday against the Guardians, The 2023 Phillies seem to resemble last year’s team that started slow and found their groove. Ranger Suarez will pitch, and he is 2-4 with a 3.84 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP. There is nothing special about Suarez, but when he locates, he can get a ton of strikeouts. 

Gavin Williams will pitch for Cleveland, and he has a 3.94 ERA with a 1.18 WHIP in just under 30 innings of work. Cleveland’s offense has recently found a spark, but Philadelphia is beating good teams repeatedly. Outside of Josh Naylor and Jose Ramirez, I’m not afraid of Cleveland’s offense. However, I’m afraid of the majority of Philadelphia’s order. 

Atlanta Braves @ Milwaukee Brewers

• Time: 8:10 PM ET
• Starting Pitchers: Mike Soroka (ATL) vs Freddy Peralta (MIL)
• Moneyline: Braves (-116) | Brewers (-102)
• Run Line: Braves -1.5 (+130) | Brewers +1.5 (-156)
• Total: Over 9.5 (+100) | Under 9.5 (-122)

 Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

 My Pick: Braves ML (-116)

The Atlanta Braves' offense is the best in baseball. I witnessed them come back against the Diamondbacks on Thursday, thanks to Matt Olson and Austin Riley. Atlanta had a tough stretch, losing four games in a row before Thursday, but they have momentum. I believe they’ll carry this to Milwaukee. 

Michael Soroka has only thrown 23.1 innings this season, and it hasn’t been pretty. He has a 5.4 ERA with a 1.5 WHIP. However, he is going to get better if he just stays healthy. Freddy Peralta will pitch for the Brewers, and he is 6-7 with a 4.41 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP. Although, Atlanta can hit any baseball pitcher, Peralta doesn’t scare me one bit.

The Braves have scored 130 more runs than Milwaukee this season, which includes 77 more homers. They’re slugging over 100 points higher and have a superior pitching staff. Atlanta had to travel Thursday night…SO WHAT!