Best MLB Bets Today | MLB Picks, July 19

Boston Red Sox vs Oakland Athletics

• Time: 8:10 EST
• Starting Pitchers: Brayan Bello (BOS) vs Ken Waldichuk (OAK)
• Moneyline: Red Sox -235  - Athletics +192
• Run Line: Red Sox -1.5 (-135) - Athletics +1.5 (+115)
• Total: Over 8.5 (-115) - Under 8.5 (-105)

Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook. Check out other MLB betting sites for more betting opportunities!  

My Pick: Red Sox -1.5

While the A’s scored a 3-0 win on Tuesday, the Red Sox should be able to bounce back in the rubber match of this series on Wednesday. These two teams have met five times this month with Boston winning four of the five games and outscoring Oakland 28-12. That indicates another lopsided result is likely on Wednesday, so there should be no trepidation about betting on the Red Sox to cover the run line.

Young righty Brayan Bello has been a bright spot for the Red Sox this season. Boston is 5-1 in the last six games he’s started with Bello earning the win in four of those games. He posted a 2.14 ERA in June and has continued to pitch well in July, lowering his season ERA to 3.14. He should have no problem keeping it going against Oakland’s lackluster lineup. Despite winning on Tuesday, the A’s have only scored three total runs over the first two games of this series. They also haven’t scored more than three runs in any of their games against the Red Sox this season, so that appears to be their ceiling.

Meanwhile, Oakland doesn’t have a good track record this season with Ken Waldichuk on the mound. The lefty is 2-6 with a 6.66 ERA in his 12 starts and 10 relief appearances in 2023. At times, he’s pitched well in short outings, but when the A’s expect him to go deep in games as a starter, Waldichuk has faltered. As for the Red Sox, despite getting shut out on Tuesday, they are still averaging six runs per game since the all-star break. Triston Cass, Masataka Yoshida, and Justin Turner have all come back from the break firing on all cylinders, so the Red Sox shouldn’t have much of a problem responding to Tuesday’s loss and winning comfortably on Wednesday. 

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Atlanta Braves

• Time: 9:05 EST
• Starting Pitchers: Ryne Nelson (ARZ) vs Charlie Morton (ATL)
• Moneyline: Diamondbacks +180 - Braves -220
• Run Line: Diamondbacks +1.5 (-105) - Braves -1.5 (-115)
• Total: Over 10 (-110) - Under 10 (-110)

Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook

My Pick: Braves -1.5

The Diamondbacks and Braves played a crazy game on Tuesday night with Arizona winning 16-13. However, a repeat of that type of game on Wednesday seems unlikely. Heading into the series, the D’Backs were in a huge funk, losing eight of 10 games, including three in a row coming out of the all-star break. Tuesday’s offensive explosion might be a positive sign for them. However, the Braves are still one of the best teams in baseball and should respond in a big way.

Charlie Morton gets the start for Atlanta on Wednesday and looks to continue an incredible run. Morton has been the winning pitcher in five consecutive starts. He’s been lights-out during his three starts in July, conceding just one run on 11 hits over 19 innings of work. He showed no signs of rust after the break, tossing seven scoreless innings against the White Sox, allowing just three hits. Morton is a good bet to keep it going against Arizona’s young lineup, even if he took a loss against the Diamondbacks earlier this year. Based on Morton’s last few starts, Arizona may not be counted on to score too many runs on Wednesday, opening the door for the Braves to cover the run line.

On the other side, the Diamondbacks will be relying on rookie Ryne Nelson to face one of the most potent lineups in baseball. Nelson is 5-5 with a 4.98 ERA on the season, so he’s had some ups and downs. He failed to get out of the fifth inning when he faced the Braves earlier this year, allowing three runs on six hits over 4.2 innings. Nelson now has to face an Atlanta lineup that’s upset about losing on Tuesday and scored 13 runs. The Braves have already hit seven homers in four games since the break with Ronald Acuna Jr., Matt Olson, and Ozzie Albies all coming back red-hot. With the Atlanta lineup featuring seven players who have hit at least 15 home runs this year, Nelson will have a hard time traversing the lineup multiple times, allowing the Braves to provide Morton with more than enough run support.

Detroit Tigers vs Kansas City Royals

• Time: 10:10 EST
• Starting Pitchers: Eduardo Rodriguez (DET) vs Ryan Yarbrough (KC)
• Moneyline: Tigers -155  - Royals +130
• Run Line: Tigers -1.5 (+115) - Royals -1.5 (-135)
• Total: Over 8.5 (-105) - Under 8.5 (-115)

Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook

My Pick: Tigers ML

The Royals won a wild game 11-10 on Tuesday night, which is exactly why Kansas City is a bad bet to win on Wednesday. The Royals are 6-21 (.222) this year when coming off a win. That’s the worst record in baseball following a win by a wide margin. On top of that, the pitching matchup between Eduardo Rodriguez and Ryan Yarbrough doesn’t favor Kansas City, giving the Royals a big hill to climb if they hope for back-to-back victories, which have been a rarity this year.

For the moment, Rodriguez offers the Tigers one of their best chances to get a win. He’s had his name in the rumor mill lately, although that didn’t seem to bother him in his first start back from the all-star break, as Rodriguez picked up a win over the Mariners. The lefty owns a 2.70 ERA this season and has a good chance of dominating one of the worst lineups in baseball. Despite their offensive outburst on Tuesday, the Royals have been held to two runs or less in three of their five games since the break. 

Meanwhile, Yarbrough will be making his first appearance in 10 days, so there is always the fear of rust. To his credit, the lefty has made a successful transition from the bullpen to the rotation. In his last start before the break, he allowed just one run over six innings against the Guardians. However, he still owns a 5.29 ERA, so he doesn’t come with any guarantees. Ultimately, it’s unlikely that Yarbrough will be able to out-perform Rodriguez, and given Kansas City’s terrible track record following wins, the Tigers are poised to take Wednesday’s game.