Best MLB Bets Today | MLB Picks, July 17

The first weekend after the 2023 MLB All-Star Break has concluded and a new week is set to begin. There will be exciting matchups starting on Monday, including one that could be a preview of the ALCS and a potential World Series matchup. With many exciting games and series starting on Monday, there will also several great opportunities to place bets on the games and get some significant earnings. Some games might not be too wild at first, but there are a few that could be worth the risk.

Cleveland Guardians @ Pittsburgh Pirates

• Time: 7:05 PM E.T. - Monday
• Starting Pitchers: Xzavion Curry (Guardians) vs Quinn Priester (Pirates)
• Moneyline: Guardians (-135) | Pirates (+115)
• Run Line: Guardians -1.5 (+115) | Pirates +1.5 (-135)
• Total: Over 9.5 (-110) | Under 9.5 (-110)

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook. Check out other MLB betting sites for more betting opportunities! 

My Pick: Cleveland Guardians (CLE)

Kicking off a new week and a new set of games is the three-game series between the Cleveland Guardians (45-48) at the Pittsburgh Pirates (41-52). These are two teams that need to take advantage of every potential win and momentum they can to sneak into the postseason after a rough start first half of a 2023 MLB Season.

The Guardians have been juggling back-and-forth with the Minnesota Twins for first place in a very weak AL Central Division. They are currently 2.5 games behind the Twins for first place in the division, as they have lost four consecutive games.

The Pirates have seen some positive motions going in all phases of the game, but they haven't been able to translate that into the win column. They remain one game over the disappointing St. Louis Cardinals in fourth place in a wild NL Central Division.

The Guardians started the season horribly in the batting game, but have maintained more consistency. They are ranked 12th in the AL in runs accounted for (374), seventh in hits accounted for (794), first in fewest strikeouts encountered (660) and eighth in batting average (.250). The Guardians will be tasked against the Pirates' starting pitcher Quinn Priester, who is making his Major League Debut.

The Pirates, who rank last in runs in the NL accounted for (388), 12th in batting average (.238) and 14th slugging percentage (.384), and will have the difficult task to face the Guardians' starting pitcher Xzavion Curry (3.04 ERA in 47.1 innings pitched).

San Francisco Giants @ Cincinnati Reds

• Time: 7:10 PM E.T. - Monday
• Starting Pitchers: Logan Webb (Giants) vs Brandon Williamson (Reds)
• Moneyline: Giants (-155) | Reds (+135)
• Run Line: Giants -1.5 (+100) | Reds +1.5 (-120)
• Total: Over 10 (+100) | Under 10 (-120)

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.

My Pick: Cincinnati Reds (CIN)

Both the San Francisco Giants (52-41) and the Cincinnati Reds (50-44) didn’t have the best starts to the 2023 MLB Season. At one point in the season, the Giants started with a 17-23 overall record and struggled to get consistently above .500% through mostly the remainder until the All-Star Break. The Giants are a team that still has postseason expectations despite the roster being reworked.

The Reds entered the season having very little expectations from most major media outlets. At one point in the season, the Reds possessed an overall record of 21-29. The Reds’ season turned around with the addition of rookie infielder Elly De La Cruz being added to the Major Leagues roster. Since the addition of Cruz and his incredible athleticism, the Reds have won 23 of their last 34 games.

The Reds have become a more focused and established batting this season since the addition of Cruz. Cincinnati ranks fourth in the NL in runs accounted for (457), seventh in hits accounted for (805), first in stolen bases (113), third in walks (345), seventh in batting average (.253), second in on-base percentage (.333) and sixth in slugging percentage (.409).

Cincinnati will face a challenge on Monday as they face one of San Francisco's top pitchers in Logan Webb (3.14 ERA in 126 innings pitched). While the Giants have the edge in the pitching matchup with the Reds starting Brandon Williamson (5.21 ERA in 46.2 innings pitched), the Reds will have the batting momentum carried over from near the end of the first half of the season.

One more thing to keep in mind, the Reds have lost four consecutive games, but all of them have come from their bitter divisional rival in the Milwaukee Brewers. 

Miami Marlins @ St. Louis Cardinals

• Time: 7:45 PM E.T. - Monday
• Starting Pitchers: Jesus Luzardo (Marlins) vs Miles Mikolas (Cardinals)
• Moneyline: Marlins (+105) | Cardinals (-125)
• Run Line: Marlins +1.5 (-195) | Cardinals -1.5 (+165)
• Total: Over 8.5 (-115) | Under 8.5 (-105)

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.

My Pick: Miami Marlins (MIA)

There could not be a more parallel matchup on Monday than the new series between the Miami Marlins (53-42) and the St. Louis Cardinals (40-53). The Marlins are a surprising contender for the NLCS title as they are in second place in a stacked NL East Division. There weren’t many expectations from the Marlins as there were the Philadelphia Phillies or the New York Mets.

The Cardinals, on the other hand, might be the disappointing teams in baseball based on the expectations and the talent on their roster. St. Louis is in last place in an NL Central Division that has seen its fair share of surprises.

The Marlins come into the new series against the Cardinals as the underdog despite having the better season record, production, and pitching matchup. Miami has a season ERA of 4.08, which is fifth in the NL as opposed to St. Louis, who have a season ERA of 4.56, 12th in the NL.

On Monday, the Marlins will go with Jesus Luzardo (3.29 ERA in 109.1 innings pitched) to start at the mound, while the Cardinals will have Miles Mikolas (4.12 ERA in 115.2 innings pitched). The Cardinals have struggled at times this season against highly efficient pitchers.

St. Louis is a team that has done an incredibly poor job of handling the pressure and expectations on them this season. While pitching has been their biggest problem, it has not excused the Reds from having a more successful season at the plate despite not having the veteran leadership and batting talent.