Best MLB Bets Today | MLB Picks, August 18

The Thursday slate was limited, but the Friday action is jam-packed in Major League Baseball. It was a 3-2 Friday last week on WSN, and we’re looking to stay in the green once again. There are five plays with a ton of value on the slate today, and it’s time to break it all down!

Make sure to check back every Friday for my latest plays on the site! Also, follow WSN on all social platforms for daily picks from all our analysts. 

Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland Guardians

• Time: 7:10 PM ET
• Starting Pitchers: Matt Manning (DET) vs Gavin Williams (CLE)
• Moneyline: Tigers (+145) | Guardians (-175)
• Run Line: Tigers +1.5 (-142) | Guardians -1.5 (+120)
• Total: Over 8 (-110) | Under 8 (-110)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook. Check out other MLB betting sites for more betting opportunities.

My Pick: Under 8 (-110)

The Detroit Tigers and Cleveland Guardians have trended under in their head-to-head matchups this season. The AL Central foes have stayed under eight runs in five of six games this season, and we’re eyeing the under once again on Friday.

Matt Manning will pitch for the Tigers, and he is coming off a great start against the Red Sox where he allowed no earned runs in 5.1 innings. The pitcher has been much better on the road this season, with a 3.89 ERA and well under a hit per inning. If this Manning shows up, Friday’s game has a great chance of staying under.

Gavin Williams will throw for the Guardians, and he is the easier side of this bet. Williams has been sensational this season and shoved excellent offenses like the Rays, Blue Jays, Astros, and Phillies in four of his past five starts.

He has a 2.8 ERA with a 1.17 WHIP on the season. Neither offense is entering this game on a hot streak. Additionally, the Guardians have gone under in five straight home games. 

Seattle Mariners vs Houston Astros

• Time: 8:10 PM ET
• Starting Pitchers: Bryce Miller (SEA) vs JP France (HOU)
• Moneyline: Mariners (+128) | Astros (-152)
• Run Line: Mariners +1.5 (-154) | Astros -1.5 (+28)
• Total: Over 8.5 (-128) | Under 8.5 (+104)

 Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.

 My Pick: Over 8.5

The Seattle Mariners have gone over in four of their past five games. They have been hitting the ball with authority. The same goes for the Astros, who have gone over in five of their past six games. 

Both pitchers in this game are talented, but they each have flaws. Bryce Miller of the Mariners has been horrendous on the road with a 5.15 ERA. Opponents are batting .250 off Miller on the road compared to .206 at home. 

JP France’s ERA is also worse at home than on the road. He has a 3.58 ERA at home compared to a 1.92 ERA as the visitor. The pitcher flaws line up perfectly for an over in this spot, and we expect both offenses to stay hot. 

The Astros are sixth in MLB in runs scored, and the Mariners are in the upper half of baseball as well. Bet the over of 8.5 as we see this game reaching 10 runs.

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Minnesota Twins

• Time: 8:10 PM ET
• Starting Pitchers: Andre Jackson (PIT) vs Pablo Lopez (MIN)
• Moneyline: Pirates (+194) | Twins (-235)
• Run Line: Pirates +1.5 (-110) | Twins -1.5 (-110)
• Total:Over 8.5 (-108) | Under 8.5 (-112)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.

My Pick: Twins -1.5 (-110)

The Minnesota Twins aren’t a great baseball team, but they have a few clear advantages in this game on the run line. Minnesota is a home run-hitting team, as they’re seventh in baseball in this category. The Pirates are 23rd, so Minnesota should have success winning with the long ball. 

The Twins will face a pitcher who has been home-run-happy in his 26.1 innings of work this season. Andre Jackson will open this game and has allowed six homers in his time on the mound. He also has a 5.47 ERA over this span. 

Minnesota will have one of their best pitchers on the mound in Pablo Lopez. Lopez doesn’t have many weaknesses as we’ve seen throughout the season. Lopez is 8-6 on the season with a 3.66 ERA and under a 1.1 WHIP. 

He also has recorded 180 strikeouts in 147.2 innings of work. He has four straight quality starts and hasn’t allowed a run in his past 14 innings of work. The Twins should hit, and Lopez should shove, allowing them to cover on the run line.

Tampa Bay Rays vs Los Angeles Angels

• Time: 9:40 PM ET
• Starting Pitchers: Erasmo Rodriguez (TB) vs Tyler Anderson (LAA)
• Moneyline: Rays (-104) | Angels (-112)
• Run Line: Rays -1.5 (+146) | Angels +1.5 (-178)
• Total: Over 9.5 (-106) | Under 9.5 (-114)

 Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.

 My Pick: Rays ML (-104)

The Tampa Bay Rays opened as a plus-money underdog. The line has since shifted to -104, and we expect it to continue to fall in favor of Tampa Bay. The Rays are a better team, even though their starting pitcher isn’t that talented. 

Erasmo Rodriguez will throw for the Rays, but only for an inning or two, as he is an opener. As long as he can get through the top of the first inning, it should be smooth sailing for Tampa Bay against Tyler Anderson. 

Anderson isn’t an opener, but he shouldn’t make it too long in this game. He has a 5.28 ERA with a 1.52 WHIP. He has walked 47 batters in 109 innings and doesn’t have a lot of strikeout ability.

Tampa Bay has gone over in four of their past six games, which shows they’ve been hitting the baseball. These runs will translate to a win on Friday.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres

• Time: 9:40 PM ET
• Starting Pitchers: Brandon Pfaadt (ARI) vs Seth Lugo (SD)
• Moneyline: Diamondbacks (+154) | Padres (-184)
• Run Line: Diamondbacks +1.5 (-132) | Padres -1.5 (+110)
• Total: Over 8.5 (-128) | Under 8.5 (+104)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.

My Pick: Over 8.5 (-128)

The total is too low in this game for the pitchers that will throw. This total should be at nine to 9.5, based on Brandon Pfaadt and Seth Lugo. Pfaadt is 0-6 with a 6.91 ERA and a 1.52 WHIP over 54.2 innings. 

He has allowed 67 hits in this span with 14 homers. His opponent batting average this season is .303, and he will face one of the hottest offenses in baseball in San Diego.

The Padres are batting .270 with a .338 OBP in the past week. Fernando Tatis Jr. is batting .480, and Xander Bogaerts is batting .391 in this span. 

San Diego should put runs on the board, and Arizona will follow. Seth Lugo has a 4.16 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP. His last start came against the Diamondbacks, where he allowed six hits in five innings with two earned runs. 

Arizona showed the ability to hit Lugo, but they couldn’t convert, and this game still reached nine runs. If the Diamondbacks have a couple of clutch swings, this game will sail over the total.