Best MLB Bets Today | MLB Picks, August 11

We’re in the dog days of summer for Major League Baseball, and the action can often drag. However, the value is as high as we will see all season from a betting perspective. At this point of the year, we know which teams are performing and the clubs that have thrown in the towel. We also know the teams that have a chance to make a deep run in the postseason. 

Information is critical for baseball betting because it gives us the ability to place data-driven wagers. The Friday slate has a lot of big matchups, and we’re breaking down five of them in this article. Every Friday, I give my best plays on WSN, so make sure to check back weekly. 

Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays

• Time: 6:40 PM ET
• Starting Pitchers: Xzavion Curry (CLE) vs Aaron Civale (TB)
• Moneyline: Guardians (+168) | Rays (-200)
• Run Line: Guardians +1.5 (-126) | Rays -1.5 (+105)
• Total: Over 8.5 (-106) | Under 8.5 (-114)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook. Check out other MLB betting sites for more betting opportunities!     

My Pick: Rays -1.5 (+105)

Aaron Civale of the Rays will make his debut against the team that traded him at the deadline, the Cleveland Guardians. Civale has been sensational this season, with a 5-3 record, 2.55 ERA, and a 1.09 WHIP. In 81.1 innings, he has allowed just 67 hits and five homers. 

Civale can struggle with walks from time to time, but he pitched well in nearly every start this season. His first game with the Rays wasn’t great, but I expect a massive day out of him against his former teammates.

Xzavion Curry will throw for the Guardians and his numbers have been great. He has a 2.95 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP. However, he is going to serve as an opener in this spot. Curry went five innings in his last start against the White Sox, but most of his outings have been one to two innings. 

The Guardians are 3-7 in their past ten games, and the Rays are starting to rebound. This is a winnable series for Tampa Bay as they’re just three games back in the division, so I expect them to have a strong showing. 

Los Angeles Angels @ Houston Astros

• Time: 8:10 PM ET
• Starting Pitchers: Reid Detmers (LAA) vs Justin Verlander (HOU)
• Moneyline: Angels (+168) | Astros (-200)
• Run Line: Angels +1.5 (-125) | Astros -1.5 (+104)
• Total:Over 8.5 (-105) | Under 8.5 (-115)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.

My Pick: Astros -1.5 (+104)

Justin Verlander started the season shaky, but he has been tremendous as of late. In the past 30 days, he has a 2.01 ERA and opponents are batting just .173 off him, which is exceptional. Verlander is back to vintage Verlander, and he is in a great situation being back with the Astros. 

The Angels have a high-ceiling pitcher on the bump in Reid Detmers on Friday. Detmers is coming off a tough outing against the Mariners where he allowed seven earned runs in four innings. The reason to fade Detmers in this spot is road numbers. The pitcher has a 5.49 on the road and is yet to win a game. 

The Angels can compete offensively with the Astros, but the pitching matchup is a major mismatch. I don’t see Los Angeles scoring much off Verlander, which should lead to a cover.

Milwaukee Brewers @ Chicago White Sox

• Time: 8:10 PM ET
• Starting Pitchers: Corbin Burnes (MIL) vs Michael Kopech (CWS)
• Moneyline: Brewers (-176) | White Sox (+148)
• Run Line: Brewers -1.5 (-105) | White Sox +1.5 (-114)
• Total:Over 8.5 (-115) | Under 8.5 (-105)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.

My Pick: Brewers -1.5 (-105)

This is a prime run line spot for the Brewers. They’re on the road with an offensive and pitching advantage. They’re guaranteed nine at bats, and I expect them to fully take advantage of the opportunity. 

Corbin Burnes hasn’t been as dominant as last season, but he has still been solid. He has seven straight quality starts and should make it eight against the White Sox. Burnes has allowed just 96 hits in 139.1 innings, with 141 strikeouts. 

Chicago is a massive joke, and Michael Kopech won’t help their cause in this game. The pitcher is 5-10 with a 4.43 ERA and a 1.43 WHIP. Over 107.2 innings, he has allowed 87 hits which is tremendous. Yet, his walk and home run rate is through the roof. 

He is walking 5.6 batters per nine and allowing over two home runs per nine innings. Chicago also has a team OBP of .292 since the All-Star break which isn’t going to cut it in this game if Kopech walks every batter he faces.

Baltimore Orioles @ Seattle Mariners

• Time: 10:10 PM ET
• Starting Pitchers: Kyle Gibson (BAL) vs Luis Castillo (SEA)
• Moneyline: Orioles (+128) | Mariners (-152)
• Run Line: Orioles +1.5 (-164) | Mariners -1.5 (+136)
• Total: Over 7.5 (-120) | Under 7.5 (-102)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.

My Pick: Over 7.5 (-120)

The Baltimore Orioles are the American League East leader and they’ve done this by scoring runs. There is nothing special about Baltimore’s pitching staff, but they have one of the best offenses in the game. Baltimore is eighth in baseball in runs compared to the Mariners who are 16th.

Baltimore will face Luis Castillo, and this is a tough task. Yet, the pitcher is hittable as he is coming off a start where he allowed ten hits and seven runs in six innings to the Angels. There are a few outlier starts and many have come over the past month. 

He has a 4.5 ERA in this span. A couple big swings from Baltimore will help this game go over the 7.5-run total from the Orioles side. 

Kyle Gibson will pitch for Baltimore and he is hittable, even for an average Seattle offense. The pitcher is 11-6 with a 4.5 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP. 

Over 140 innings, he has walked 43 batters. Gibson should make a mistake and Cal Raleigh along with Eugenio Suarez should take advantage of it to finish off the over on 7.5 runs.

Texas Rangers @ San Francisco Giants

• Time: 10:15 PM ET
• Starting Pitchers: Jon Gray (TEX) vs Scott Alexander (SF)
• Moneyline: Rangers (-112) | Giants (-104)
• Run Line: Rangers -1.5 (+142) | Giants +1.5 (-172)
• Total:Over 8 (-120) | Under 8 (-102)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.

My Pick: Rangers ML (-112)

The Texas Rangers are hanging on in the AL West, with a 2.5-game lead over the Astros. The Rangers have the most complete team in the American League and their offense has won them games all season.

Adolis Garcia, Jonah Heim, Corey Seager, Marcus Semien…the list goes on and on. There are tons of bats and very few easy outs in this lineup. 

The Rangers are batting .271 as a team with a .342 OBP. That’s over 30 points higher than San Francisco. San Francisco is an average lineup all around, and they’ll face Jon Gray who has been much better on the road than at home. 

Opponents are batting 40 points lower off him on the road than at home. He has a 3.14 ERA with just four homers allowed in 51.2 innings as a visitor. 

Scott Alexander will be an opener in this game and give it to the Giants bullpen. San Francisco has the fifth-best bullpen ERA in baseball, but there are plenty of chances for the Rangers to get to this stuff and that’s why I’m taking them to win as road favorites.