Best MLB Bets Today | MLB Picks, April 27

Seattle Mariners @ Philadelphia Phillies

• Time: 1:05 PM EST

• Starting Pitchers: RHP George Kirby (SEA) vs LHP Matt Strahm (PHI)

• Moneyline: Mariners -105 | Phillies -115

• Run Line: Mariners -1.5 (+155) | Phillies +1.5 (-190)

• Total: Over 8.5 (-105) | Under 8.5 (-115)

Odds courtesy of BetMGM Sportsbook

My Pick: Mariners -105

Both the Mariners and Phillies have had slow offensive starts to 2023. Their top hitters have sputtered, leading to a sub-500 record for much of the year. While we expect both to break out eventually, the Mariners have shown they are much closer. They have scored at least five runs in their first two games of the series, and they have one of the hottest players in the game in Jarred Kelenic. He had a quiet night yesterday but still ranks in the top ten in the league in home runs (7) and batting average (.342). Expect him to bounce back today against veteran Matt Strahm (1-2, 3.00 ERA).

Strahm joined the Phillies this offseason as he transitioned into a part of their pitching rotation. Before this season, Strahm had only started 25 games in his seven seasons. The former reliever is having a solid start to the season but has begun to struggle a bit over his last two starts. He has given up six runs and five walks over his previous eight innings. Strahm has yet to last more than 5 ⅓ innings, and that has been when he is pitching well.

We expect Strahm to struggle against a Mariners lineup that is beginning to take shape. He hasn’t allowed many hits, but he has given up home runs and walks that have led to back-to-back losses. Even if he is able to bounce back, the Phillies will be forced to go to a bullpen that has had a lot of work the last two games. Expect the Mariners to capitalize and cruise by the Phillies today. 

San Diego Padres @ Chicago Cubs

• Time: 2:20 PM ESTStarting Pitchers: RHP Seth Lugo (SD) vs RHP Hayden Wesnewski (CHC)

• Moneyline: Padres -138 | Cubs +118

• Run Line: Padres -1.5 (+116) | Cubs +1.5 (-140)

• Total: Over 8.5 (-115) vs Under 8.5 (-105)

Odds Courtesy of BetMGM Sportsbook

My Pick: Padres -1.5 (+116)

The Padres are starting to wake up. With Fernando Tatis Jr back in the lineup and locker room, they have now won five of their last seven games. That includes last night's win over the Cubs. While Juan Soto and Tatis have yet to get going, the middle of this lineup is hitting well. Expect the top of this lineup to get a boost as they face a young and unproven Cubs starter today.

Hayden Wesnewski (1-1, 6.23 ERA) will get the start at home for Chicago. His ERA isn’t pretty, and it's only under 10.00 because of his start against the A’s (7 innings, 1 ER). That is also the only game where he lasted more than 4 ⅔ innings. The 25-year-old is struggling to miss bats and has already given up four home runs in just 17 ⅓ innings. That is a bad combination against a Padres lineup loaded with power. 

Seth Lugo (2-1, 3.78 ERA) will be on the hill for the Padres today. The former reliever was added in the offseason and has not disappointed. He has three quality starts and has allowed just one home run this season. At 33 years old, the veteran has faced many players on this Cubs team. They have a combined .167 batting average against Lugo, and there is no reason to suspect that will change tonight. 

New York Yankees @ Texas Rangers

• Time: 1:05 PM EST

• Starting Pitchers: RHP Gerrit Cole (NYY) vs LHP Andrew Heaney (TEX)

• Moneyline: Yankees -165 | Rangers +140

• Run Line: Yankees -1.5 (+100) | Rangers +1.5 (-120)

• Total: Over 7.5 (-105) | Under (-115)

Odds Courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

My Pick: Yankees -1.5 (+100)

The Rangers' stunning run to open 2023 appears to be coming to an end. The Reds swept them after the Rangers beat Kansas City and Oakland in the previous two series. Now they will welcome a Yankees team coming off a 12-run win against the Twins and are desperate to climb back up the AL East Standings. 

Gerrit Cole (4-0, 0.79 ERA) will take the mound for the Yankees and is arguably the hottest pitcher in the league. The veteran starter has been fantastic, allowing just three runs over his five starts. That run includes one complete game shutout against the Twins. Expect that to continue tonight against a Rangers team he dominated last season. Cole started two games and posted a combined ERA of 2.19. The Rangers' bats have been hot as they have played the league’s worst teams, but they haven’t faced anyone like Cole. Expect the former Cy Young winner to dominate Texas as he maintains an ERA under 1.00.

Andrew Heaney (2-1, 4.34 ERA) has been solid in the back half of this Texas rotation. He’s allowed just two earned runs in his last 16 innings, but 11 came against the A’s and Royals. The other good outing was against a Houston team struggling to find their offense. Now he’ll be facing a Yankee lineup with a ton of power. They may not dominate the starter, but they will be able to do enough to support another stellar start from Cole.

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