Best MLB Bets Today | MLB Picks, April 12

Miami Marlins @ Philadelphia Phillies

• Time: 4:05 PM ET
• Starting Pitchers: Edward Cabrera (MIA) vs Zack Wheeler (PHI)
• Moneyline: Marlins (+162) - Phillies (-195)
• Run Line: Marlins +1.5 (-135) - Phillies -1.5 (+115)
• Total: Over 8 (-110) - Under 8 (-110)

Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook

My Pick: Phillies -1.5 (+115)

These teams are playing the rubber match of a three-game series on Wednesday. Over the first two games, they have combined for 30 runs, so it’s reasonable for at least one of these teams to keep the runs coming. More than likely, that team is going to be the Phillies. After all, the Marlins have scored the fewest runs in the National League while conceding the second-most runs in the NL this year.

Miami’s biggest problem in this game is starting pitcher Edward Cabrera. The 24-year-old has pitched just 6.2 innings over his two starts this season. While he’s only allowed four runs on two hits, he’s walked 13 batters in those 6.2 innings. That’s asking for trouble against Philadelphia’s lineup, especially with Brandon Marsh and Alec Bohm off to fast starts in 2023, making the Phillies a little deeper than expected. In such a hitter-friendly ballpark, it’s not hard to envision the Phillies making Cabrera pay for his control problems.

Meanwhile, the Phillies will have Zack Wheeler on the mound. While Wheeler hasn’t been at his best this season, a game against the Marlins is the perfect time for him to get on track. As a team, the Marlins are scoring just 3.2 runs per game with only two teams striking out more times than Miami’s hitters this year. Wheeler should be able to stifle the Miami lineup long enough for the Phillies to get to Cabrera, turning this game into a blowout, much like Philadelphia’s 15-3 win over the Marlins on Monday.

Detroit Tigers @ Toronto Blue Jays

• Time: 7:07 PM ET
• Starting Pitchers: Eduardo Rodriguez (DET) vs Kevin Gausman (TOR)
• Moneyline: Tigers (+228) - Blue Jays (-285)
• Run Line: Tigers +1.5 (-110) - Blue Jays -1.5 (-130)
• Total: Over 8.5 (-120) - Under 8.5 (+100)

Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook

My Pick: Blue Jays -1.5 (-130)

Detroit is giving the A’s a run for their money with regard to the worst team in baseball. The Tigers have lost five in a row, including a 9-3 loss in Tuesday’s series opener in Toronto. More importantly, the Blue Jays are good enough to kick the Tigers while they’re down and earn another comfortable win on Wednesday.

Lefty Eduardo Rodriguez has taken the loss in his first two starts of the season while pitching to a 6.30 ERA. While he's faced good teams, he’s not going to get much of a break against Toronto’s lineup. Whit Merrifield, Matt Chapman, and Bo Bichette all have excellent career numbers against Rodriguez. Plus, Chapman and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. are both hitting over .400 on the season with Bichette and Kevin Kiermaier not far behind. The Detroit bullpen isn’t helping much, contributing to the Tigers giving up at least six runs in six of their 10 games this season, which bodes well for Toronto’s lineup.

At the same time, the Tigers have scored an MLB-low 30 runs, giving them an average of just three runs per game. That should position Kevin Gausman for another strong performance on Wednesday. Toronto’s ace is yet to allow an earned run over his first 12 innings of the season. He’s struck out 14 and only walked three in those 12 innings, so he looks sharp. He tossed six scoreless innings against the Royals in his last start and should be able to replicate that success against Detroit’s sluggish lineup, giving the Blue Jays a chance to win by a wide margin on Wednesday.

Cincinnati Reds @ Atlanta Braves

• Time: 7:20 PM ET
• Starting Pitchers: Hunter Greene (CIN) vs Spencer Strider (ATL)
• Moneyline: Reds (+215) - Braves (-267)
• Run Line: Reds +1.5 (+100) - Braves -1.5 (-120)
• Total: Over 8 (-105) - Under 8 (-115)

Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook

My Pick: Braves -1.5 (-120

The Braves have a chance to complete a sweep of the Reds on Wednesday. Atlanta has eked out a pair of one-run wins over the last two days. However, the Braves should have an easier time on Wednesday against a Cincinnati team that’s just 1-4 on the road this season whereas Atlanta has shot to the top of the NL East standings.

The Reds will send Hunter Greene to the mound on Wednesday. The 23-year-old has flashed plenty of promise early in his career. However, control problems have plagued him in 2023, as he’s failed to finish five innings in either of his first two starts while producing a WHIP of 2.00. Those are the types of things that can get him into trouble against a team like the Braves, especially if the Reds need to get a lot of innings from their bullpen. Even if the Atlanta lineup isn’t fully clicking just yet, Matt Olson, Austin Riley, Ronald Acuna, and Orlando Arcia are all off to fast starts and poised to do damage against Green.

On the other side, the Braves will put their trust in Spencer Strider. Last year’s Rookie of the Year runner-up has 18 strikeouts in his first 11 innings of the season while only conceding three runs on seven hits. For most of Cincinnati’s hitters, this will be their first time seeing Strider. Even with a few bright spots early in the season, the Reds may not have much success against one of the top young pitchers in baseball. With Greene unlikely to match Strider, the Braves should jump out to a lead in the early innings and never look back.

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