Best MLB Bets Today: Witt and Judge Square Off in the Big Apple

Monday’s games feature a match between two of the AL’s top stars. Aaron Judge and the Yankees will host Bobby Witt Jr. and the Royals in a litmus test for both. We’ll share our favorite bet for this game and two others from tonight’s slate.

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Kansas City Royals vs. New York Yankees (7:07 PM, EST)

PICK: Royals ML (+100) at Caesars Sportsbook

This game features two veteran starters on the mound at very different points in their career.

On one side is 35-year-old Seth Lugo, who is coming off a 2024 campaign that saw him go 16-9 with a 3.00 ERA. After a rough first start, the righty has posted a 2.31 ERA over his next two starts. He will improve on those numbers tonight as he faces a New York team that he held scoreless over seven innings the last time he visited Yankee Stadium.

On the other side is 38-year-old Carlos Carrasco, who has a 7.71 ERA and 1.63 WHIP across three starts this season. He has been awful over the past two seasons, and his poor start in 2025 has us convinced he’s lost the stuff that made him a dangerous starter for years.

The Royals have been struggling to generate offense this season, partly due to Bobby Witt Jr.'s slow start. The MVP candidate has been heating up in April but has yet to flash the power we saw from him last season. That will change tonight as he takes on an aging starter who is struggling to miss bats.

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Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays (2:15 PM, EST)

PICK: Under 8.5 (-105) at Caesars Sportsbook

We have been falling in love with Rays’ starter, Shane Baz. The 25-year-old broke out last season and has been electric over his first two starts of 2025. He has a 1.38 ERA and 1.08 WHIP over two starts and will build on that against a Boston team that posted an ugly .116 average against him last season.

The Red Sox lineup is loaded with talent, especially with Rafael Devers back into form. However, if you look at the splits, you’ll notice their big bats aren’t traveling well. They have a .227 average on the road this season, a trend that continued against the White Sox over the weekend. The team dropped two of three in that series, with Chicago outsourcing Boston 15-6.

The good news for Boston is that Tanner Houck will be on the mound. After a mixed start to the season, the righty delivered a gem against the Blue Jays last week. He allowed one run over 6 ⅔ innings against a Toronto team that ranks in the top five in team batting average.

Look for these starters to duel, leaving the game's fate to the bullpen. This total is way too high, so we are grabbing it while we can.

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Houston Astros vs. St. Louis Cardinals (7:45 PM, EST)

PICK: Astros ML (+100) at Caesars Sportsbook

The Astros have looked like a shadow of their former selves, but the scene is set for a win tonight.

The biggest reason we love this bet is Framber Valdez, who will be starting for Houston. The ace had a rough outing against the Giants a couple of weeks ago, but he posted a combined 13 scoreless innings in his other two starts.

Brendan Donovan has been carrying this St. Louis offense lately. Over the last week, he posted a .462 average, while the rest of the starting lineup only managed .187. A lineup anchored by one hot bat can beat bad teams, but they will crumble against an ace like Valdez.

The other reason we are locking this bet is that Isaac Paredes has a .407 average with two home runs and four RBI over the last seven days. The team has been waiting for him to heat up, and he is now showing just how high his ceiling could be. He will lead the Astros to do enough damage against Sonny Gray to secure a low-scoring win.

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