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Best MLB Bets Today: The Other Luis Castillo
Published: Apr. 9, 2025, 08:30 AM ET
4 min read
The AL West battle between the Astros and Mariners promises to be one of the most underrated games of the day. The Mariners will be starting the other Luis Castillo tonight, and we are fading him hard. We’ll share out bet for the game, along with two others we are locking in today.
The odds we use below come from Caesars Sportsbook . If you’d like to try Caesars, use promo code WSNDYW to claim a “Bet $1, Get Ten 100% Profit Boost Tokens ” offer.
Florida Marlins vs. New York Mets (1:10 PM, EST) Run Line Spread Moneyline Total Marlins +1.5 (-115) +185 Over 7 (-120) Mets -1.5 (-105) -225 Under 7 (+100)
PICK: Over 7 (-120) at Caesars Sportsbook The total for this game is set far too low, so we are rushing to lock it in. One big reason for that involves the pitching matchup.
The Marlins will have Max Meyer starting on the mound tonight. The 26-year-old has been solid to open the season but has faced two lineups that have gotten off to slow starts. The Mets would fall into that category, but we saw their bats come alive to plate 10 runs in yesterday’s win.
We would like the Mets’ bats to stay hot today against Meyers. They hammered him last season, batting for a .353 average and scoring four runs over four innings. That outing came at Citi Field; we expect him to repeat it tonight.
The Marlins have been the better team at the plate this season. They’ll be facing a red-hot Tylor Megill on the mound, but we don’t think the pitcher can keep this up. Expect to see him return to Earth tonight as he faces a Marlins team that posted a 5.79 ERA against him last season.
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Baltimore Orioles vs. Arizona Diamondbacks (3:40 PM, EST) Run Line Spread Moneyline Total Orioles +1.5 (-190) +100 Over 9.5 (+105) Diamondbacks -1.5 (+158) -120 Under 9.5 (-125)
PICK: Diamondbacks ML (-120) at Caesars Sportsbook We are fading Dean Kremer early into this season. The Orioles starter has a 6.52 ERA and 1.55 WHIP across two starts so far, and its lucky to be that low. He had improved in both categories last season, but it appears those struggles have returned in 2024.
Kremer will be facing a D-backs team that he struggled against last season. He lasted 5 ⅔ innings, allowing three ER (six runs) and four walks. His control issues constantly put him in trouble, despite Arizona not hitting the ball especially well. Now, he’ll have to face a better version of the team on the road. The result won’t be pretty.
We are high on Brandon Pfaadt this season. While he has a 5.28 ERA over two starts, his WHIP is an impressive 1.08. The 26-year-old made strides last season, a campaign that included a quality start against Baltimore in Camden Yards.
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Houston Astros vs. Seattle Mariners (4:10 PM, EST) Run Line Spread Moneyline Total Astros -1.5 (+140) -125 Over 7.5 (+100) Mariners +1.5 (-165) +105 Under 7.5 (-120)
PICK: Astros ML (-125) at Caesars Sportsbook A lot of people are going to miss this bet after misreading the pitching matchup. The Mariners will have Luis Castillo on the mound, just not the one you think. Luis F. Castillo broke into the MLB at 30 last season, appearing in 3 ⅔ innings of relief. He failed to break into the MLB with the D-Backs, and has spent the last few years playing in Japan.
Castillo made his first career start last week, and it was a disaster. He lasted just three innings, allowing three ER on six hits and two walks. The Astos lineup is struggling after losing Alex Bregman and Kyle Tucker in the offseason, but they still have plenty of talent. Look for them to show that against Castillo tonight.
Houston will have Hunter Brown starting tonight. The 26-year-old broke out last season, and has carried that momentum in to 2025 with a 3.00 ERA over two starts. He’ll be facing a bad Mariners lineup that he dominated last year, posting a 1.61 ERA over four starts. Look for him to deliver another gem against this familiar foe.
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Michael Savio
Sports Betting Analyst
Expertise:
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Michael is an avid sports fan and a veteran bettor from Milwaukee. He learned the trade from his grandfather in Las Vegas as a kid and has turned that into a successful career. He cheers for all Wisconsin pro teams along with his Alma Mater Arizona State. He specializes in baseball betting, but has experience in football, basketball, and hockey as well. When he isn’t pouring over stats, he’s spending time with his two young children.
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