Liga MX Predictions, Betting Odds, Picks February 6-7

• Puebla should have no trouble retaining top spot against Queretaro
• Apertura champions Atlas will take on one of the worst defences in the league
• Leon and Cruz Azul should be able to shut each other out

Queretaro vs Puebla

Queretaro vs Puebla Predictions

Puebla have been among the best all-round teams in the league at the start of the Clausura season and currently sit in first place with 7 points from their 3 games. That could well have been 9 points if they weren’t shut out by an obdurate Club America a couple of weeks ago, but Puebla’s matches have all had them dominating play from start to finish. 

They look like a team that wants to make amends after being knocked out in the quarter-finals during the Apertura playoffs, and Queretaro will have to battle really hard to stay in the game despite playing at home. We think a point from this fixture is the best that they can manage. 

Queretaro Made To Sweat Despite Early Goal

It was complete backs to walls stuff for Quererato in their last game, where they did well to hang onto a 1-1 draw against Guadalajara despite Leonardo Sequeira’s second-minute goal putting them in front. 

Queretaro managed only 244 passes at an accuracy of 59 percent against Guadalajara, who completed 475 passes at an 81 percent accuracy in comparison. Queretaro saw very little of the ball through this game and committed as many as 22 fouls as they tried to keep the home side from running away with the game. 

And it worked. Despite being on the backfoot for the majority of the fixture, Queretaro still managed a decent conversion rate in the final third, getting 4 of their 7 shots on target, ultimately for just the one point. They are currently placed 13th in the league, having finished the Apertura season in 17th place. 

Puebla Keep The Momentum Going

One of the reasons Puebla ended up mid-table in the Apertura season was because of how many games they lost – 5 out of 17. In a compressed league, that sort of a loss ratio can prove very costly. They’ve gone about fixing that in good fashion, at least so far, having lost none of their 3 games and sitting at the top of the table with 7 points. They are currently the joint second-highest scoring team in the league with 6 goals from their games, and have conceded only 2 in that time.

One of those conceded goals came against the embattled Club Tijuana, who were dealing with Covid-related disruptions, and whose problems were compounded by the end of the game with Puebla sealing an impressive 3-1 win, having been behind at the end of the first half. 

George Corral’s 57th minute penalty brought them on level terms, before goals in the last 10 minutes from Maximilliano Araujo and Fernando Aristeguieta capped a performance during which they kept 55 percent of possession and had a stunning shots conversion rate, getting 6 of their 12 on target. Perhaps the only area of concern at this point in the season is the fact that they’ve picked up 9 yellow cards, although 8 of those came in their first 2 games. 

Atlas vs Santos Laguna Pick

Atlas (moneyline)

Atlas vs Santos Laguna Predictions

The champions of the Apertura season have begun the Clausura season strongly, with 2 wins and a draw from their 3 games. They’re currently the best defensive side in the league as well, having conceded only once since the season began, and are looking good to go deep into the season as championship favourites. They’ll be hosting Santos Laguna at home on Monday, who are currently the worst defensive team in the league and who have conceded 8 goals in 3 games. We expect a comfortable, potentially high-scoring win at home for the Atlas.  

Patient Atlas Overcome Pressure To win

In their last round, Atlas travelled to play Club America, who kept them under the pump for a large part of the game but couldn’t keep the champions from running away with a slightly flattering scoreline. Atlas had only 40 percent of the ball through the game, and committed 16 fouls as they tried to close out attacking avenues for America. They still had to endure 14 shots, 4 of which on target, and managed to do that for long enough before Diego Barbosa used a rare attacking foray to convert and put them 1-0 up in the 70th minute.

The pressure was then let off in the 78th thanks to America’s sending off, and in the end Jonathan Herrera tucked in for the 95th minute second goal. It was a happy end to an otherwise tense game for Atlas, who managed only 4 shots on goal but were rewarded for their accuracy when 2 of their 3 shots on target resulted in the goals that sealed the win for them. Goalkeeper Camilo Vargas was the true hero in the game for Atlas, as he bagged his second clean sheet of the season. 

Red Card Costs Santos Laguna Big

It was a night to forget the last time Santos Laguna played, as they were dispatched 4-1 by Necxa in a pretty humiliating fashion. A poor challenge from Jordan Carrillo meant he was handed a straight red in the 19th minute, and although Laguna were the first team to score despite that sending off, it was a proper chase for them in the rest of the game. 

That goal via Felix Torres in the 36th minute was their only shot on target in the 90 minutes, as they were condemned to operate in their own half for the majority of the match by Necaxa. They conceded 61 percent of the possession, 18 goal attempts, with 8 of those attempts on target. There was solid resistance through the course of the first half, despite the red card, but games of soccer aren’t won in 45 minutes. The dam was about to burst, and it all began with a regulation time equalizer at the end of the first half. From there, things unraveled quickly for them and the home fans had to endure a gutting defeat. They now sit in 16th place, with only a point from 3 games. 

Tigres UANL vs Mazatlan Pick

Tiges UANL (moneyline)

Tigres UANL vs Mazatlan Predictions

Tigres are strong favorites going into this fixture, particularly after sealing a dramatic late win against Pumas UNAM in their last match. Tigres haven’t exactly shown a consistent game in the season so far, with a win, a loss, and a draw from their three fixtures; but they are in far better shape than Mazatlan, who have only played two games, but have looked listless in both. 

They are yet to points on the board, and have managed to score only once, while conceding 5. We don’t see that changing during their trip to play Tigres. 

Gignac Seals Three Points For Tigres

He is in the 18th year of his senior professional career, but French striker Andre-Pierre Gignac isn’t slowing down. In their last fixture, Gignac scored his 133rd goal for Tigres since joining in 2015 – he’s managed that record in just 237 appearances.

The Liga MX isn’t exactly the highest challenge Gignac has faced in his career, but the heat was very much on him as he stepped up to take a controversial 97th minute penalty against Pumas UNAM. The veteran belted it into the back of the net to seal what was their first win of the season – it was also his first goal of the year. 

It put to a close what was a sensational, chaotic, end-to-end game where neither Pumas, nor Tigres made use of all the chances created. In total, the two teams managed 33 goal attempts between them, with an almost even split. Tigres got only 5 of their 16 shots on target, but a late tactical tweak from the manager was enough for them to spring into action during the final 20 minutes to silence the Pumas supporters. 

Indifferent Mazatlan Need A Boost

Mazatlan began the season with a complete collapse against Guadalajara in a 3-0 defeat, and things got worse for them in the following round as they fell apart once again through a red card. 

They had taken the lead at home through an Eduard Bello goal in the 28th minute, but were nonetheless reduced to being underdogs throughout the match. Mazatlan managed only 31 percent of the possession against Toluca, and completed only 248 passes in the game with an accuracy of 68 percent. More strikingly, they committed 23 fouls in the game, which is a record in this season so far, and which was the foreshadowing for Gonzalo Sosa’s 73rd minute sending off. 

The match was tied at 1-1 at that point, and ultimately lost through yet another piece of indiscipline, which gave Toluca an 80th minute penalty and the eventual win. The positives for Mazatlan from that match were the 4 shots out of 11 that they got on target despite not enjoying too much time on the ball.

Leon vs Cruz Azu Pick

 Draw (moneyline)

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Leon vs Cruz Azul Predictions

This is the marquee match of the round, with two heavyweights taking on each other. Leon, the runners-up of the Apertura season, haven’t begun too well in the Clausura season. They started with draws in their first two games, before winning their first game of the season against Pachuca.

Cruz Azul, on the other hand, have made a very strong start to their Clausura season with 7 points from 3 games. They are currently placed second on the table, behind Puebla only on goal difference at the moment. They have scored 5 goals from their 3 games and conceded 2, while Leon have looked more susceptible at the back, conceding one goal in each of their games; the last of those was an own goal, which suggests they are still looking for rhythm and solidity at the back. 

For this reason, we think they will concede against Cruz Azul, and if they do that, we don’t expect them to pick up three points from this fixture. We think this game is headed for a stalemate. 

Supreme Passing Stats Underline Leon Dominance

Their 2-1 win against Pachuca may look like a consequence of Pachuca having a player sent off, but Leon had already been leading 2-1 before that happened. If anything, the scoreline undersells how dominant Leon were through that game.

They had 58 percent of the ball, and made 422 passes versus Pachuca’s 299. The stand-out metric that showed their control, though, was that their passing accuracy was 86 percent. They employed a pretty intense pressing system, which resulted in 13 fouls committed, but their ability to win the ball back quickly and recycle possession was a telling feature of the win. 

Cruz Azul Miss Chance To Go Top

The 2021 Clausura champions were well placed to make it 3 wins out of 3 in this year’s Clausura season, but fell apart dramatically towards the end of their match against Monterrey to give up a 2-0 lead and settle for a draw.

Azul weren’t at their best throughout the game, with home side Monterrey shutting down any potential fluency in the midfield, and controlling the game with 65 percent of the possession. But what Azul didn’t have in possession, they made up for with clinical attacks – they only had 7 shots on goal, but managed to get 5 of them on target. 

Through such efficiency – and Stefan Medina’s going off in the 51st minute – they sat on a comfortable 2-0 lead with more than half an hour to go against just 10 men. However, the end turned bitter very quickly. Santiago Gimenez was sent off in the 88th minute, and Monterrey pounced on the opportunity to score goals in the 2nd and 7th minute of added time to come away with a point. In all, Azul conceded 19 goals attempts, of which 6 were on target. This leakiness is the only reason we don’t consider them out and out favorites against Leon. 

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