Guadalajara vs Club America Predictions
We’re now in the final stages of the Liga MX Clausura season. This is the stage where a team’s season gets defined, and we’ve got two top teams contesting in one of the two semifinals, which makes things all the more exciting. Club America and Guadalajara were tied on points in the league season, but Club America had the better goal difference, so they finished second on the table.
Both teams have been tested in their quarterfinals, but this will be the hardest test yet. Guadalajara are playing at home, so they’ll have a definite advantage, but Club America rarely go into a tie as an underdog. This leg is more important for Guadalajara than Club America; they need to win this leg because getting something from Club America at the Azteca is an improbable task. Club America, however, have lost just two matches all season. A draw feels like the most likely scenario in the first leg.
Previous Meetings
Club America and Guadalajara are the two most successful Liga MX sides. The former has won 13 titles, and the latter has won 12. Club America don’t just edge Guadalajara in the number of league titles but also in the head-to-head record.
They’ve won 12, drawn 10, and lost seven of their 29 matches to Guadalajara. They also haven’t lost to Guadalajara in their last five meetings and won the last three matches. It goes without saying that Club America have got a psychological edge over Guadalajara heading into this tie.
The last meeting between the two sides took place in March, when Club America won 4-2. Club America made an excellent start to this match. Jonathan Rodriguez was on fire in the first-half with two goals (16’ and 38’) to put Club America 2-0 up, and Leonardo Suarez made it 3-0 just before half-time.
It didn’t get any better immediately after the break for Guadalajara as Henry Martin made it 4-0 in the 53rd minute. The match was essentially over, but Guadalajara found a spring in their step after Emilio Lara put the ball into his own net in the 62nd minute to make it 4-1. Sergio Flores got on the scoresheet to make it 4-2. In the end, it wasn’t enough, and the match ended with Guadalajara’s Victor Guzman getting sent off.
Guadalajara Beat 1-0 in Second Leg to Enter Semifinals
Despite drawing Atlas 1-1 on aggregate, Guadalajara entered the semifinals of the 2023 Liga MX Clausura season because of a higher league finish. Atlas had won the first leg 1-0 thanks to Julian Quinones’ 42nd-minute strike. Atlas were well worth the win in the first leg after taking 20 shots compared to Guadalajara’s 15.
The second leg at Akron stadium was a lot closer, but Gilberto Sepulveda’s 60th-minute strike made the difference. Guadalajara had 51% of the possession and took just one shot more than Atlas all game. It’s not often that teams enter the next round of the playoffs because of a higher league finish but this was one instance where it worked in Guadalajara’s favor.
Many fans and media experts have complained that this rule feels a bit too arbitrary, but advocates of this rule suggest that the league's performance must count for something. Guadalajara were rewarded for the same in this match.
Guadalajara were probably second-best over the two legs, but it doesn’t matter now. They’re through, and all the focus has to be on the match against Club America.
Guadalajara Have Grinded Through All Season
Guadalajara have shown a lot of grit this season. They haven’t been as free-flowing as the likes of Club America, Monterrey, and Toluca, and they’re not as defensively solid as the likes of Leon or Tigres but they have managed to find a way.
Guadalajara had an underwhelming campaign last season by their standards. The fans would’ve taken a semifinal appearance in a heartbeat before the season started, but now that they’ve made it this far, they will demand a victory.
There are bragging rights in store as well because they’re playing rivals Club America in the semifinal. They have an excellent opportunity to take control of this tie as they’re playing the first match at home.
They need to start this game on the front foot, nick a goal, and sit on the lead. They aren’t capable of outplaying a team like Club America, so a more reserved approach will make sense for this tie. The crowd will play a big part and they need to use them whenever possible.
Manager Veljko Paunović has done a fantastic job this season, but now that he’s got this far, everyone at the club will be dreaming of silverware. Anything less is usually not enough at a club like this.
Club America Lose 2-1 to San Luis But Go Through on Aggregate
Club America had a big scare against San Luis but Brian Rodriguez’s 88th-minute strike saved their blushes in a 2-1 loss to San Luis. Club America went through to the semifinals 4-3 on aggregate.
This was previewed as a routine win for Club America, but Liga MX playoffs love to throw in a few curveballs. Unai Bilbao scored in the 18th minute to give San Luis a good start before Leo Bonatini made it 2-0 in the 31st minute. At this stage, the aggregate score was 3-3; Club America’s league standing meant that they’d still go through, but they were suddenly under a lot of pressure.
In the end, they managed to hold on their nerves, and Rodriguez’s strike got them through, but it was a nervy performance and poor preparation for a big semifinal. They were extremely reckless and will have to do a lot better against Guadalajara if they want to enter the finals. In some ways, this was a good wake-up call.
They are the favorites to go through over the two semifinal legs, but not by much. If they repeat some of the mistakes from the game against San Luis against Guadalajara, they’ll certainly get punished. Club America have been punished plenty of times since their last title win in 2018, so it was even more surprising that they let things get down to the wire in the last match.
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