Valencia vs Atletico Madrid Prediction, Betting Odds, Picks

• There are signs that Atletico Madrid are beginning to click into gear in La Liga
• Valencia have fallen away after a positive start to the season under new management
• Atletico will fancy their chances of collecting their seventh victory of the campaign

Valencia vs Atletico Madrid Odds

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Valencia vs Atletico Madrid Pick

Valencia are hard to beat at home but they are not in particularly good form right now, while the champions’ attack has looked lively of late.

Atletico Madrid to score over 1.5 goals. (+115)

Atletico Madrid Arguably the Most Rounded Team in La Liga

Atletico Madrid came flying out of the traps last season. They went unbeaten in their first 10 games and won 16 of their first 19 to open up a 10-point lead at the top of the table. Atletico was only the fourth-best side in Spain’s top flight in the second half of 2020/21, but they had already done enough by then. For the second time in his managerial career, Diego Simeone had his hands on the La Liga trophy in May.

The champions have not made quite as convincing a start this time around. They sit fourth in the standings going into the weekend having failed to win five of their 11 encounters. Real Madrid has scored eight more goals than their crosstown rivals. And unusually for them, Atletico’s defensive record is decent rather than spectacular. Crisis club Barcelona has conceded just two fewer goals than Simeone’s side.

Yet there are signs that Atletico are beginning to click into gear, and they are still arguably the most rounded team in the division. Barcelona is in a mess, both on and off the field. Real Madrid are reliant on Karim Benzema upfront and has looked shaky at the back. And while Sevilla and Real Sociedad have made fine starts to the season, a lack of experience and know-how could be an impediment to a sustained title tilt.

Atletico were terrific in their last La Liga assignment, a 3-0 victory over Real Betis. Having struggled to find a consistent rhythm early on, they are now playing some excellent soccer. The expected goals figures suggest they are the best defensive team in the division – Atletico are restricting their opponents to very few chances. They are also blessed with strength in depth in attack, which has not always been the case in the last few years. Atletico are in a good place right now.

Valencia Started Strongly but Have Slipped Down the Standings

It all started so well for Valencia. Los Che collected 10 points from the first 12 available this season to set the early pace in La Liga. Having been stuck in a malaise for some time, the more optimistic contingent at Mestalla suggested that Valencia were on their way back.

It looks like they spoke too soon. Valencia proceeded to enter a seven-match winless run which only ended with a 2-0 win against an equally out-of-sorts Villarreal side last weekend. Jose Bordalas’s charges find themselves down in mid-table and it is now clear that their position among the top four was a false one. They will hope, however, that the win against Villarreal kick-starts another positive run.

Valencia’s appointment of Bordalas was contentious in some quarters. His Getafe side were physical and not particularly easy on the eye, and some felt he was not a good fit for the job at Mestalla. Bordalas has not yet won over every Valencia fan but he has generally made the team more solid defensively, notwithstanding the lapses that saw them ship at least three goals to each of Real Betis, Sevilla and Barcelona.

The task confronting Bordalas now – and one for which he is arguably less well equipped given how shot-shy his Getafe teams often were – is to improve Valencia’s attacking coherence. At present, Los Che simply do not pose enough of an attacking threat to be serious challenger for the European spots.

Atletico Madrid Have More Attacking Quality Than Ever Before

Despite Valencia’s shortcomings, this will not be an easy game for Atletico. Mestalla is still a tough place to go. Real Madrid are the only away team to have departed the ground with all three points this season. Valencia have been planning for this match all week, whereas Atletico had to contest a hard-fought game against Liverpool in the Champions League on Wednesday night. That could play into the home team’s hands.

It is therefore wise to avoid backing an Atletico win, even though that is the most likely outcome. Instead, turn your attention to the goals market, and particularly the odds of +115 on Atletico scoring more than 1.5 goals.

Simeone’s side have plenty of attacking quality these days, and the Argentine – a cautious coach at heart – has proved himself willing to utilize it. Atletico are by no means the second coming of Pep Guardiola’s Barcelona, but they are now more comfortable with their status as a big club who should be striving for victory in every game they play.

Atletico have scored more than 1.5 goals in four of their last five away matches in La Liga. Valencia’s recent seven-game stretch without a win means their confidence is brittle, despite that victory over Villarreal last time out. Atletico will fancy their chances of scoring at least twice.

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