Real Madrid vs. Atletico Madrid Prediction: Local Derby in Champions League

• Real Madrid are the defending champions and they are hoping to go all the way again

• Atletico Madrid have had some tough moments in this fixture in the Champions League

• Who wil come out on top in the first leg of the Madrid derby in the round of 16?

Real Madrid vs. Atletico Madrid Odds

Find the latest odds for the Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid matchup in the table below. Click the odds and place your bets at some of the best soccer betting sites available today.

Real Madrid vs. Atletico Madrid Pick

Back Real Madrid to beat Atletico Madrid on Tuesday night. It will probably be advantage Blancos midway through this Champions League last-16 tie.

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Real Madrid Champions League Aura Makes Them Team to Beat

There is something special about Real Madrid and the Champions League. They won the first five editions of this tournament when it was called the European Cup, and have been the most dominant team in the competition ever since. Madrid have lifted the trophy 15 times, more than double the amount of AC Milan (seven successes) in second place.

They are the favorites with the sportsbooks to go all the way this season too. Madrid did not have everything their own way in the league phase, missing out on a top-eight finish after losing to Lille, AC Milan and Liverpool. That meant they had to go through the play-offs, where los Blancos breezed past Manchester City in a 6-3 aggregate victory.

It is not hard to see why they rank at the top of the betting charts. Madrid have one of the most talented squads in the competition. Jude Bellingham, Vinicius Junior, Thibaut Courtois, Jude Bellingham, Aurelien Tchouameni, Fede Valverde and Antonio Rudiger would walk into the starting XIs of most teams on the continent. 

That is not the only reason, though. This gifted crop of players is led by Carlo Ancelotti, the most successful manager in Champions League history. The Italian has won the tournament five times - two with AC Milan and three with Madrid - a feat that no one else has managed. A master of man-management, Ancelotti is the perfect fit for the biggest club in the world.

Finally, do not underestimate Madrid’s aura in this competition. That famous all-white kit seems to confer magical powers to its wearers on Champions League nights. Madrid are not a perfectly consistent side in La Liga (they lost to Real Betis at the weekend, for instance), but they always seem to turn it on in Europe.

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Atletico Madrid Have Revenge on the Mind Against Neighbors

The Champions League has not given Atletico Madrid supporters quite as many happy memories as their Real Madrid counterparts. Atletico hold the unwanted record of having reached the most finals (three) without winning one. 

They have got close twice in the Diego Simeone era, participating in the showpiece event in 2014 and 2016. On both occasions they were beaten by none other than their cross-city rivals, Madrid. Atletico also lost to their neighbours 4-2 on aggregate in the 2016/17 semi-finals.

Revenge is long overdue, then. Simeone has certainly made this derby more competitive than it was before he took charge in late 2011. Atletico have won two La Liga titles on his watch, while they beat Madrid in the final of the Copa del Rey in 2013 and in the European Super Cup five years later.

Atletico have more than held their own in recent La Liga clashes too. Indeed, Madrid have won just one of the last seven league games between the pair. At the same time, Atletico have not won at the Estadio Santiago Bernabeu since the 2015/16 campaign.

They sit above Ancelotti’s team in the La Liga standings as both Madrid clubs and Barcelona battle it out in an intriguing title race. While Madrid were coming unstuck against Real Betis, Atletico beat Athletic Bilbao 1-0 on Saturday. 

There is no real reason for Simeone’s side to feel inferior to their more illustrious neighbors right now, although the long-serving Atletico boss seems to enjoy it when his team is the underdog.

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Real Madrid Should Establish First-Leg Lead on Home Soil

Atletico Madrid will be pleased that the second leg will be played at their home ground, which produces a fantastic atmosphere for big games. Deep down, they would not be too dissatisfied with a narrow defeat on Tuesday, as long as they are still in the tie after the 90 minutes at the Bernabeu are up.

As for Madrid, they will hope to establish a comfortable lead at home to give them some breathing space for next week’s return fixture. It is hard to predict the exact scoreline for the first leg, but we are indeed backing Ancelotti’s team to come out on top in front of their own supporters.

Madrid do not lose on their own soil very often. They have been beaten by visiting teams just twice in any competition for close to two years. It is therefore difficult to see how Atletico will be able to avoid defeat.

Madrid are starting to get some defenders back from injury. Rudiger has returned at the heart of the defense, while Lucas Vazquez’s availability allows Ancelotti to push Valverde back into his favored position in the center of the park. That will help Madrid stifle Atletico’s attacking unit.

At the other end of the field, Madrid’s attacking quartet of Mbappe, Bellingham, Vinicius and Rodrygo should get them over the line against Atletico. Go for a home win on Tuesday as these two rivals lock horns once more on the European stage.

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How to Watch Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid

• Teams: Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid

• Location: Estadio Santiago Bernabeu, Madrid, Spain

• Date and Time: Tuesday, March 4 at 3:00 PM ET 

• How to Watch: Paramount+