Manchester City vs. Real Madrid Prediction: Clash of Titans in UCL

• The Champions League play-offs start this week and all eyes are on this match

• Manchester City are struggling this season but they can never be written off

• Real Madrid are the defending champions yet this is still a tricky tie

Manchester City vs. Real Madrid Odds

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Manchester City vs. Real Madrid Pick

Back Real Madrid to beat Manchester City in the first leg of this Champions League play-off. At the odds available, this bet is too good to pass up.

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Manchester City Have Lost Aura and It Is Hard to Get That Back

In the first few months of 2024/25, it looked like it would be business as usual for Manchester City this season. Then things fell apart. Between a 2-1 loss to Tottenham Hotspur in the EFL Cup in late October and a 1-1 draw with Everton in the Premier League on Boxing Day, Pep Guardiola’s team won just one of 13 matches in all competitions. 

The initial explanation for City’s collapse in form centered on the absence through injury of Rodri, who tore a knee ligament in September. City have indeed missed the Ballon d’Or holder dearly. But there are other factors at play and it is fascinating to ponder whether Guardiola’s side would have sailed on smoothly had Rodri not got injured.

No one saw this coming, but in hindsight City must regret not doing more to refresh their squad last summer, when Savinho was the only paid-for signing. There is a sense that this group of players has been allowed to grow old together. City are not as energetic or dynamic as they once were, with Kevin De Bruyne, Ilkay Gundogan, Bernardo Silva, Mateo Kovacic, Kyle Walker (who has since departed) and Ederson all over 30.

Perhaps, too, some of City’s players simply have nothing left to give after dominating English soccer for so long. Guardiola is a famously intense operator and his demands must be draining after a few years. The City boss himself also looks increasingly tired and in need of a rest.

City’s aura has vanished over the last few months. We have seen that in Europe as well as back home. Sporting CP ran out 4-1 winners over Guardiola’s team, while Feyenoord came from 3-0 down to draw 3-3 at the Etihad Stadium and Juventus beat City 2-0 in Turin. 

Guardiola’s charges ultimately qualified for the play-offs, but their league phase campaign was not at all convincing. Needless to say, a two-legged tie with Real Madrid is not what City were hoping for.

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Real Madrid Overcame Teething Problems but Questions Remain

Real Madrid did not have everything their own way in the league phase either, hence their participation in the play-offs. A top-eight finish was the aim for both Madrid and City at the beginning of the campaign, but finishing between ninth and 24th forced them to enter this additional round.

Even in a 3-1 triumph over Stuttgart on matchday one, there were warning signs for Madrid. Carlo Ancelotti’s team proceeded to lose 1-0 to Lille, before going 2-0 down to Borussia Dortmund and fighting back to win 5-2. However, back-to-back defeats by AC Milan and Liverpool left the holders in a precarious position with three games remaining.

In the end, victories over Atalanta, Red Bull Salzburg and Brest saw Madrid qualify for the play-offs without too much difficulty. They have also improved their position in La Liga after a stuttering start, the main reason for which was Ancelotti’s struggles to integrate Kylian Mbappe into the team.

The veteran Italian has since found a way of playing that brings out the best in Mbappe while also ensuring the team as a whole is not unbalanced. Coherence is key in a collective sport like soccer and Ancelotti knows that better than anyone.

Question marks remain, however. Madrid’s top-heavy team is capable of beating La Liga minnows, but might they be picked off against genuine elite sides on the continent? Or to put it more simply, can Mbappe, Rodrygo, Jude Bellingham and Vinicius Junior really play in the same XI in a Champions League knockout tie? We will find out on Tuesday.

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These Teams Have Served up Some Classics in Recent Years

Real Madrid head into the first leg with a patched-up backline. Lucas Vazquez is just the latest Madrid defender to enter the treatment room, joining the likes of Antonio Rudiger, Dani Carvajal, Eder Militao and David Alaba. 

The 21-year-old Raul Asencio could start in the Champions League knockouts for the first time, with midfield duo Fede Valverde and Aurelien Tchouameni set to drop into the back four. That is not ideal against a Manchester City team which, for all its faults, still knows how to create chances and score goals.

On the flip side, it is hard to see how City will be able to contain the likes of Mbappe, Vinicius, Rodrgyo and Bellingham, especially in transition. Guardiola’s side are alarmingly easy to play through these days, and that star-studded Madrid quartet will find themselves with ample space to break into.

These two teams have served up some classics in recent years, including City 4-3 Madrid and Madrid 3-1 City in 2022, City 4-0 Madrid in 2023, and Madrid 3-3 City in 2024. Neutrals will hope we get another one here. 

From a betting perspective, the smart money is on Madrid, whose fast breaks forward will cause City an abundance of problems.

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How to Watch Manchester City vs. Real Madrid

• Teams: Manchester City vs. Real Madrid

• Location: Etihad Stadium, Manchester, England

• Date and Time: Tuesday, 11 February 2025, 15.00 PM ET 

• How to Watch: Paramount+