Liverpool vs. PSG Prediction: Last-16 Tie Comes to a Head

• Liverpool lead 1-0 on aggregate in this Champions League last-16 tie

• Paris Saint-Germain were the better team in the first leg at the Parc des Princes

• Will Liverpool complete the job on Tuesday, or can PSG spring a surprise?

Liverpool vs. PSG Odds

The odds for Liverpool vs. PSG can be found in the odds table below.

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Liverpool vs. PSG Pick

Back Liverpool to beat PSG on Tuesday. The Parisians played well in the first leg, but they may have missed their chance.

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Liverpool Need an Improved Performance to Win This Time

If you only glanced at the result, you might assume that Liverpool were the better team in their 1-0 victory over PSG in the first leg of this Champions League last-16 tie. Anyone who watched the game at the Parc des Princes knows better. PSG were far superior in every department but one: profligacy in front of goal.

Just look at some of the underlying numbers from the match. PSG took 27 shots to Liverpool’s two. Ten of their attempts were on target compared to just one for Liverpool. PSG’s xG of 1.78 compared favorably to Liverpool’s tally of 0.27. Yet when the final whistle sounded, it was the Premier League giants that celebrated.

This was a smash and grab of epic proportions. Liverpool had Alisson Becker to thank for keeping them in the game, as the Brazil international produced one of the best goalkeeping performances in the history of the competition. Yet in another sense, PSG only had themselves to blame for passing up opportunity after opportunity.

It is often said that the sign of a good team is the ability to win matches even when you are not playing well. It is a skill this Liverpool side possesses. The Reds are top of the Premier League, second-favorites to win the Champions League, and through to the EFL Cup final. They have played some fantastic soccer along the way. But at times they have had to grind out results.

There is no shame in that. In fact, it is a virtue. Yet Arne Slot will know that his team cannot afford to be so lackluster in the second leg and beyond. The Dutchman will have spent the last few days explaining to his players that this tie is not over yet. Liverpool must compete on Tuesday as if the aggregate scoreline is still 0-0.

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PSG Can Take Heart From First Leg but They Are up Against It

PSG understandably tried to take the positives from their display in the first leg. Not many teams have produced a performance as good as theirs against Liverpool in 2024/25. PSG have been playing well for weeks now and it is not beyond the realms of possibility that they win on Tuesday.

“I think we'll be in the best possible shape for the Liverpool game. We've got nothing to lose. Our only objective is victory and that's what we're going for,” Luis Enrique said after PSG’s 4-1 defeat of Stade Rennais in Ligue 1 on Saturday. It was the only sort of message the manager could deliver.

There are clear signs of progress from the Parisians this season. For one, the supporters are back on board with the team again after the frustration in the galacticos era, where PSG fielded a trio of superstars up top in Lionel Messi, Neymar and Kylian Mbappe yet continually fell short in the Champions League.

There are still exciting players in this PSG squad, including Ousmane Dembele, Bradley Barcola, Desire Doue and Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, but there is a greater sense of collective work ethic within Luis Enrique’s group these days. PSG are no longer carrying any passengers and that benefits the team as a whole.

For that reason, few tears will be shed if PSG were to fall short on Merseyside this week. The club’s followers have a team to believe in again, and a degree of optimism has returned to the Parc des Princes over the last few weeks. On Tuesday at least, PSG have nothing to lose.

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Liverpool Now Clear Favorites to Reach the Quarter-Finals

One factor potentially in PSG’s favor is that they cannot be caught in two minds at Anfield. Only a win will do for Luis Enrique’s team. On the other hand, a draw would be good enough for Liverpool to advance to the quarter-finals and that could lead to muddled thinking on their part.

Alisson is unlikely to have as good a performance as he did last week, but he might not need to. PSG will struggle to dominate to quite the same extent as they did on home turf. It will be they who need to soak up pressure for long periods of the match and only time will tell whether they are able to withstand it.

Liverpool will probably not have everything their own way here. But this is a team that has still only lost one home game all campaign. PSG had a chance to win this tie, yet from this position it is hard to see them turning things around.

Arne Slot has called for his side to play with more intensity after a lackluster showing in the first half of Saturday’s 3-1 victory. Liverpool surely will do that anyway on a Champions League night under the floodlights at Anfield. We like their chances of emerging victorious in the second leg - back a home win when PSG head to the northwest of England.

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How to Watch Liverpool vs. PSG

• Teams: Liverpool vs. PSG

• Location: Anfield, Liverpool, England

• Date and Time: Tuesday, 11 March 2025, 16:00 PM ET 

• How to Watch: Paramount+