Manchester City in Pole Position to Advance to the Next Round
Pep Guardiola could hardly have asked for a better outcome in the first leg of this Champions League quarter-final. A 3-0 victory at the Etihad Stadium last week has left Manchester City on the cusp of a place in the last four. They will now be looking to complete the job at the Allianz Arena on Wednesday.
City did not have everything their own way last time out. The first half of the encounter in Manchester was pretty even, with chances for both teams. Rodri gave City the lead with a fantastic left-footed strike in the 27th minute, but Bayern continued to probe up until the hour mark.
After that, however, City took control. They were magnificent in the final 30 minutes, scoring twice more through Bernardo Silva and Erling Haaland to extend their aggregate advantage. The best online sportsbooks rate their chances of going through at -5000.
The Champions League has not been particularly kind to City in recent years. A club that has won four out of the last five Premier League titles is yet to win its maiden European crown.
The semi-final defeat by Real Madrid last term was particularly painful since City had a two-goal lead heading into second-half stoppage time at the Estadio Santiago Bernabeu.
Those two clubs could meet again in the last four of the 2022/23 edition, with Madrid strong favorites to eliminate Chelsea on Tuesday. But City must not look too far ahead. They still need to get the job done against Bayern.
Guardiola’s side will arrive in Germany full of confidence. A 3-1 victory over Leicester City at the weekend was their 10th successive win in all competitions. City have the bit between their teeth right now and they have found their best form at the optimum time.
Bayern Munich Must Score Early to Put City Under Pressure
When Bayern made the call to replace Julian Nagelsmann with Thomas Tuchel last month, it was at least in part because they felt the appointment of the former Chelsea head coach would boost their chances of continental glory. Otherwise, they probably would have just waited until the summer.
Tuchel has a good track record in the Champions League. He led Paris Saint-Germain to the final for the first time in the club’s history in 2020, when they were beaten by Bayern. The following year Tuchel went one better, masterminding Chelsea’s defeat of Manchester City in the final.
Bayern have a mountain to climb, however. They are an excellent team on their day and can beat any other team in Europe when they are at their best. But overturning a 3-0 deficit against City, another of the continent’s best sides, will be extremely difficult.
Bayern’s all-round form has not been overly impressive since Tuchel took charge, although it is not as if they were winning every week under Nagelsmann either.
The German champions were eliminated from the DFB-Pokal by Freiburg, while a draw with Hoffenheim at the weekend means they are ahead of Borussia Dortmund by just two points in an unexpectedly tight Bundesliga title race.
“It’s important not to lose focus,” Tuchel said at the weekend, looking ahead to the second leg. “Nothing is impossible in football. I can feel that we’re dying for revenge. But you only get to the top step by step. We need a good atmosphere and quality in training, we have that.”
Goals at Both Ends a Distinct Possibility at the Allianz Arena
This is a difficult match to call. From a betting perspective, the markets are treating it as a standalone game, but it is in fact the second half of a two-legged tie. That means the aggregate scoreline will affect how Wednesday’s match plays out.
For instance, Manchester City are unlikely to play with as much attacking urgency when they are 3-0 up as they would if they were 3-0 down. Bayern, on the other hand, will need to take more risks now than they would if the scores were still level.
Even so, both teams to score looks like an astute selection. Bayern had plenty of bright moments in the first hour at the Etihad Stadium and they are averaging 3.14 goals per home game in the Bundesliga this campaign.
As for City, they have been scoring goals for fun in recent weeks. Haaland is enjoying a sensational season - the Premier League’s top scorer has found the back of the net 47 times in all competitions - but City’s threat is multifaceted. Guardiola’s side have scored 37 goals in their last 10 outings.
It could be worth combining both teams to score with no draw. Bayern have a decent chance of coming out on top within the 90 minutes, but do not rule out City reaching the semi-finals in style by winning at the Allianz Arena.
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