Atletico Madrid vs. Real Madrid Prediction: Place in Last Eight Awaits

• Real Madrid hold a 2-1 aggregate lead in this Champions League last-16 tie

• Atletico Madrid have definitely not given up hope of turning this around 

• Will Real Madrid complete the job, or can Atletico Madrid defeat their rivals?

Atletico Madrid vs. Real Madrid Odds

The odds for Atletico Madrid vs. Real Madrid can be found in the odds table below.

The odds have been taken from the bet365 sportsbook. Sign up for a bet365 account with our promo code WSN365 and claim your bonus: Bet $5, Get $150 in Bonus Bets Win or Lose

Atletico Madrid vs. Real Madrid Pick

Back Atletico Madrid to beat Real Madrid in the second leg. Home advantage should get Atletico over the line within 90 minutes.

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Atletico Edged Out in First Leg but Home Advantage Awaits

There is still everything to play for in the second leg of this Champions League last-16 tie between the arch-rivals from the Spanish capital. Real Madrid took the lead in the first leg through Rodrygo, before Julian Alvarez leveled things up for Atletico Madrid. Both teams had chances thereafter, but it was Madrid’s Brahim Diaz who notched the winner.

All three goals were excellent, but the first leg was - unsurprisingly - a cagey affair. Madrid responded to their early goal by sitting back and allowing Atletico possession. Diego Simeone’s team moved the ball well but only threatened the opposition goal sporadically. You could tell that both sides were holding something back for the concluding game this week.

Atletico will now look to their home crowd to get them over the line. Madrid have won just one of their last six La Liga visits to the Riyadh Air Metropolitano, although there have been three draws in that time and a stalemate on Wednesday would be enough to send los Blancos through.

We saw in the first leg how Atletico have changed their style this season. There has been more of a focus on dominating possession and building up slowly. Atletico are hardly Pep Guardiola’s Barcelona, but they do look to get on the ball more these days, as we saw against Madrid.

Atletico did a good job of taking the sting out of the game at the Estadio Santiago Bernabeu. They would not have been able to do that with the deep-defense, blood-and-thunder approach of old. It is a promising sign as Atletico look to finally win their first ever Champions League.

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Real Madrid’s Champions League Heritage Is a Genuine Asset

Real Madrid were not at their best in the first leg. They surprisingly took a step back and retreated into their shells after opening the scoring early on. That was probably not a conscious decision, but it was one Madrid could easily have regretted. As it is, their second-half winner means they have the aggregate lead heading into Wednesday’s decider. 

Madrid are by far the most successful club in the history of the Champions League, having lifted the famous trophy on 15 occasions. During the modern era, it was easy to pin their fantastic record on a core of experienced players who had been there and done it time and time again - Cristiano Ronaldo, Sergio Ramos, Luka Modric, Toni Kroos, Karim Benzema. 

Of that quartet, only Modric remains - and he is no longer a guaranteed starter. Yet Madrid still have an aura about them in this tournament. It is as if the famous white jersey imbues certain powers onto whoever wears it in the Champions League. It is also why you can never write Madrid off on the continental stage.

The Blancos were not at their best at the weekend as they labored to a 2-1 victory over Rayo Vallecano. But Carlo Ancelotti defended his team’s performance by bigging up the importance of the Champions League, while also implicitly pointing to Atletico’s 2-1 loss to Getafe.

“A lot of teams played in the Champions League and suffered [this weekend],” he said. It will all be worth it if Madrid beat Atletico on Wednesday.

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Atletico Madrid Can Edge the Second Leg on Wednesday

As you can see in the odds table at the top of this page, the sportsbooks reckon this is almost a 50-50 affair. Remember, though, that the ‘winner’ market is for the 90 minutes at the Metropolitano only. Atletico Madrid could triumph by one goal in regulation play but still be eliminated in extra time or on penalties.

If we had to pick a winning margin, we would indeed go for a single-goal victory. That would be enough to level the aggregate score and force an additional 30 minutes of game time. 

But even at a rival stadium, you would probably fancy Real Madrid to come out on top if the match goes beyond 90 minutes. They certainly have history on their side in that regard, having beaten Atletico twice in Champions League finals - once in extra time and once on spot-kicks.

From a betting perspective, backing a straightforward Atletico win is the way to go. The Metropolitano is a relatively new stadium and, when the club moved in 2017, some fans were concerned whether it would produce the same atmosphere as their old home, the Estadio Vicente Calderon.

They need not have worried. The Metropolitano creates quite a din and that will work in Atletico’s favor on Wednesday. It is true that Simeone’s team are more patient in possession this term, but they could return to the intensity of old for one match only.

Madrid should do enough to stay in the game and avoid being comfortably beaten. But Atletico have what it takes to come out on top in 90 minutes.

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How to Watch Atletico Madrid vs. Real Madrid

• Teams: Atletico Madrid vs. Real Madrid

• Location: Riyadh Air Metropolitano, Madrid, Spain

• Date and Time: Wednesday, 11 March 2025, 16:00 PM ET 

• How to Watch: Paramount+