Twilight Derby Predictions, Top Picks, Odds (Santa Anita)

Check out our predictions and odds for the Twilight Derby at Santa Anita!

Best Bets for the Twilight Derby

Here are my plays ($40 in total)

$10 Exacta Box – Rock Your World and Subconscious = $20

$5 Exacta Box – Rock Your World and Zoffarelli = $10

$5 Exacta Box – Rock Your World and Hudson Ridge = $10

If you’re playing only to win, go with my top pick Rock Your World (5/2).

A Grade 1 winner on the dirt, Rock Your World returns to the turf on Sunday when he tops a competitive field of 11 set for the Grade 2 Twilight Derby at Santa Anita.

A winner of his first two career starts, which both came on the Santa Anita turf, Rock Your World moved to dirt in his third start and was an impressive winner of the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby. He was off the board in both the Kentucky Derby and the Belmont Stakes but was a solid second to his old rival Medina Spirit last time in the Shared Belief Stakes.

Chief among his rivals in the 9-furlong turf test is None Above the Law. A gray, gelded son of Karakontie, the California-bred has won four stakes races this year, two of them coming on the turf. Most recently, he scored his biggest victory to date when he rode the rail to victory over 12 other 3-year-olds in the Grade 2 Del Mar Derby.

Several others in the field merit strong consideration. Among them is the Irish-bred Zoffarelli. A consistent runner in England, he was transferred to the barn of Jeff Mullins this summer and found plenty of trouble in his first two starts in the US Beaten a nose in the Grade 3 La Jolla and then 2-lengths in the Del Mar Derby, he was unlucky with traffic in both, but did get placed first in the former.

Twilight Derby Predictions

Rock Your World

The only Grade 1 winner in the field, he is the horse to beat on Sunday. After running against the best 3-year-olds in the nation in the last four starts on dirt, the classy son of Candy Ride returns to turf, where he looked awfully good in his first two starts. While the Twilight Derby is a solid Grade 2 affair, it should offer some class relief to be in a race without Medina Spirit, Essential Quality, and Hot Rod Charlie. There is another speed in the race, but he does not need to be on the front. He also gets to return to Santa Anita, where he won his first three starts, including the Santa Anita Derby. He is the top pick.

None Above the Law

It’s hard to say much negative about this California-bred who knows his way to the winner’s circle. Coming off the biggest win in his career, you won’t see the 10/1 odds that he has gone off lately, but he should still offer some value in this deep field. It appears he can run equally well on any surface and if he can work out another great trip as he got at Del Mar, he could rack up his third straight stakes score. Having said that, chances are against him finding another dream trip. He is an obvious threat, but I do like a few others a little better.

Subconscious

This well-bred son of Tapit looks to have a big future on the grass for Hall of Fame trainer Richard Mandella. After not showing much in his debut, he has progressed with four nice performances, each of them better than the one before. This is his stakes debut, but he beat a nice field in his fast allowance win at the beginning of the month. He also demonstrated the ability to pass horses after showing a lot of speed in his previous three efforts. I’m sure he will be forwardly placed again, but now we know he can finish. I believe he is the biggest threat to the top pick.

Zoffarelli

This Irish-bred fires every time, and is due to a good journey after two tough trips in graded stakes at Del Mar. He was still right there in both, and in fact, was placed first by the stewards in the Grade 3 La Jolla. The fact that he has only actually crossed the wire first once in nine races is a bit of a concern, but his first two tries in America were good enough to know that he is a major player on Sunday. With a good run, he could win the whole thing, but I like him only third best.

Hudson Ridge

Another consistent runner who had a rough trip in the Del Mar Derby, this son of American Pharoah will look to return to his winning ways at the track where he has had all of his success. Twice a winner going 9 furlongs on the Santa Anita turf course, including a win in the Cinema Stakes while still a maiden, he clearly likes the trip he will find in the Twilight Derby. His two losses at Del Mar are not bad, and no reason to abandon the ship. He is another one with a big shot in here.

Beyond Brilliant

Like Subconscious, this son of Twirling Candy comes into the Twilight Derby off a sharp allowance score. He came at Del Mar, though, and does not look to have been as tough a field as Subconscious beat at Santa Anita. Having said that, it was still impressive, going wire to wire for a 3-length tally. Both of his two-lifetime wins have come in front-running fashion, so that could be his undoing, as he faces quality speed in this 9 furlongs graded affair. He is dangerous, but I am looking elsewhere.

Flashiest

The list of horses with things to like is here, and this one is no different. A son of Mizzen Mast, he has finished first or second in all but one of his races, and that came going a bit longer, and on the East Coast. In the Del Mar Derby, he had a better trip than several but was outkicked by None Above the Law. A similar type of performance puts him in with a shot once again, but with so many others to like, I need to take a stand against some pretty nice horses, like this one.

Cathkin Peak

Another who could have done better with clear sailing in the Del Mar Derby, he came running at odds of 46/1. I guess he was completely ignored because of fading out of the picture in the La Jolla, but that was his only poor race. Three starts back, this Irish-bred was second to Rock Your World in the Pasadena Stakes at Santa Anita. The way he finished last time has me believing that he is one to consider for the exotics on Sunday.

Wootton Asset

Trained by Graham Motion, this son of Wootton Bassett comes off a win in the Virginia Derby on the turf at Colonial Downs. The victory snapped a seven-race losing streak since winning two straight over in France in the spring of 2020. Most of his American performances had been solid, but it’s worth noting his worst race was his only previous try in California, which came last November at Del Mar. While I can’t completely disregard his chances in here, I do think that the Virginia Derby lacked the class he will find out at Santa Anita.

Jungle Cry

Likely to be the longest shot in this 10-horse field, this one is yet another that you can’t dismiss. In five turf races, he has never been beaten by more than 2 ¼ lengths. A stakes winner at Golden Gate, he may lack a bit of a class in comparison to many in here, but he was not embarrassed in previous stakes races against the likes of None Above the Law and Flashiest. I will pass on him, but would not be shocked if he hits the board

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