Steve Sexton Mile Predictions, Picks, Odds (Lone Star Park)

Check out our predictions and odds for the 2022 Steve Sexton Mile at Lone Star Park! Odds for this race are taken from TwinSpires Sportsbook! Click on the odds below and place your lucky bet!

Steve Sexton Mile Predictions and Best Bets

Here are my plays ($60 in total)

$20 Win – Rated R Superstar = $20

$10 Exacta Box – Rated R Superstar and Shaaz = $20

$5 Exacta Box – Rated R Superstar and Mish = $10

$5 Exacta Box – Rated R Superstar and Popular Kid = $10

If you’re playing only to win, go with my top pick Rated R Superstar (5/1)

Undefeated in three career starts, the Sean McCarthy-trained Shaaz headlines the field for Monday’s $400,000 Steve Sexton Mile at Lone Star Park.

A $1.1 million purchase as a 2-year-old, the son of Uncle Mo actually finished runner up in his second career start, but was awarded the victory due to interference. Most recently he was an easy winner of a Santa Anita allowance race eight weeks ago.

Chief among his rivals in the Grade 3 affair is the multiple graded stakes-winning Rated R Superstar. Easily the most accomplished runner in the field, the 9-year-old gelding has collected just a shade under $1.6 million in his career.

The veteran runner comes in off a disappointing seventh-place finish in the Grade 2 Oaklawn Handicap but was an impressive winner of the Grade 3 Essex Handicap in the start before that.

The Saffie Joseph Jr. trained Mish is another who should get plenty of wagering support in the Steve Sexton Mile.

The gray son of Field Commission will be making his stakes debut on Monday but has three straight at Gulfstream Park. In his last two, he dominated his competition on the front end, each time winning by big margins while running a flat mile.

The Steve Sexton Mile will be the feature of the holiday card at Lone Star Park which boasts six stakes races totaling $1.2 million in purses.

Steve Sexton Mile Predictions and Race Analysis

Shaaz

Purchased for major money as a 2-year-old, this son of Uncle Mo did not make it to the races until the very end of his 3-year-old season. It may have taken him a long time to be ready to run, but he has done little wrong since his debut.

It looks like his undefeated record in three career starts is legitimate, having been really bothered when placed first by the stewards two starts back. Most recently, he dominated the allowance company on the front end.

In a race with much early speed, he may be better suited to stalk early, but it remains to be seen whether he is willing to do that. The likely favorite, he is an obvious threat here, but will not be my top choice.

Mish

This one will make his stakes debut on Monday after running against the significantly cheaper competition for his entire 12-race career. Having said that, he certainly has turned things around of late.

The Saffie Joseph Jr. trained runner has won three straight, including the last two by a combined 16 ¼-lengths. Having turned the corner in his career, he will now be asked to do it against solid competition and at a track away from Gulfstream Park.

His speed is dangerous, and his recent form is impressive, but with other quality speed in the field, he will have to run big in order to raise his winning streak to four.

Rated R Superstar

At the advanced age of 9-years-old, this son of Kodiak Kowboy has not lost a step. Seldom near the leaders early, he does his best running when coming well from behind with a powerful late run. With plenty of speed entered, this edition of the Steve Sexton Mile should set up well for that game plan.

His last race was not so good, but there was little early pace to set up his rally in the Grade 2 Oaklawn Handicap. Before that disappointing result, he had won two of his last three in solid stakes races at Oaklawn.

The winner of three graded stakes in his career and close in several others, I like his chances to pick up all the pieces on Monday. He is the top pick.

Silver Prospector

From a class perspective, this graded stakes-winning son of Declaration of War certainly fits with this group. Third in this race last year, he has run plenty of strong races against good competition. Three starts back he finished second to the talented Olympiad in the Grade 3 Mineshaft.

If he can find his best form, he is clearly a threat on Monday. That’s a big question in my mind, though. His last two races did not look good, finishing fifth at Oaklawn Park in each. Perhaps he can turn it around for this one, but given his recent form, I am preferring others.

Flash of Mischief

This Karl Broberg-trained son of Into Mischief proved to be a tough cookie last year, running first or second in six stakes races. He returned from a layoff earlier this month to flash plenty of early speed in an allowance sprint, before fading out of the picture late.

With the prep race under him, he should be ready to run on Monday. Having said that, he is another who does his best running on the front. It does not look to be the running style I am looking for here with the anticipated strong early pace. For that reason, I am going to pass on him this time.

Sheriff Brown

This stakes-winning son of Curlin probably has even less early speed than Rated R Superstar. Like my top pick, the confirmed late runner is eligible to be a beneficiary if the pace is contested and hot.

A winner of 1-of-4 career starts at Lone Star Park, he was fifth in this race last year and was unable to make up ground in a recent allowance prep for Monday’s feature. If you can draw a line through that dull performance, he is playable here, but I like others better.

Popular Kid

Like my top pick, this 8-year-old has found plenty of success over the years with 15 career wins. While those wins have never come against a field this good, he is a stakes winner and has beaten good horses like Thomas Shelby and Rated R Superstar in the last year.

He also has run well over the Lone Star main track and is able to come from a little bit off the pace. As a value horse, I believe he can run a strong race and spice up the exotics prices.

Mine That Star

Adding to the speed of this race, this son of Pioneerof the Nile comes in off stakes win at Sunray Park sprinting most recently. He’s actually won three stakes races in his last four starts, all of which came in New Mexico.

Despite his nice record of six wins from twelve career starts, it’s hard to know how his good recent form at smaller venues will translate against this solid field on Monday. Considering the other speed in the race, and the bump up in class, I will pass on him in this spot.

Tessoro

A 4-year-old son of Anchor Down, he comes in off a victory on the grass in an allowance race at Golden Gate Fields last month and actually has not started on the dirt in his last four races.

Winless in four previous tries in stakes company, he was able to finish second in last fall’s Zia Park Derby, but that came in a weak field of four. Despite his good recent form, he looks to be a cut below the best in here.

How to Watch the Steve Sexton Mile