Sorrento Stakes Predictions, Betting Odds, Picks (Del Mar)

Sorrento StakesPredictions, Post Position and Odds

Check out our predictions and odds for the Sorrento Stakes at Del Mar!

A full field of 11 juvenile fillies were entered for the 53rd running of the Grade 2 Sorrento Stakes at Del Mar. The Friday feature will serve as the major prep for the Grade 1 Del Mar Debutante on Sunday, September 5.

A California-bred daughter of Outwork, At the Spa rates, top billing off a perfect record in two starts at Santa Anita. After a romping victory in her debut in May, the Jorge Periban-trained filly scored an impressive win in the Fasig-Tipton Debutante on June 20. The Sorrento will stretch her out to 6 furlongs while making her first start at Del Mar

There will be plenty of competition for At the Spa on Friday. Chief among her opponents will be the trio of Smash Ticket, Eda and Elm Drive.

Second, in her debut at Lone Star Park, Smash Ticket traveled to Del Mar and was an impressive five-length winner of a maiden race on July 17. Eda has made only one start for trainer Bob Baffert, and was beaten to the wire in a fast maiden at Santa Anita, but was placed first due to bumping. Meanwhile, Elm Drive made her first start six weeks ago at Los Alamitos and was an 8-length winner of a 5-furlong maiden race.

Best Bets for the Sorrento Stakes

Here are my plays ($50 in total)

$30 Win – Smash Ticket = $30

$20 Win – Eda= $20

Top Picks:

Smash Ticket (9/2)

Eda (6/1)

How to Watch the Sorrento Stakes

Race Analysis

At the Spa

This daughter of Outwork has been flawless in her first two career starts at Santa Anita, winning her debut by 7-lengths, before a convincing score in the Fasig Tipton Debutante. Off the two nice wins, she deserves favoritism as the only stakes winner in the group. Things will only get tougher here, though, as she will need to break from the far outside against a solid group of talented fillies. Tougher than what she has faced so far. As the probable favorite, I will take a shot to beat her on Friday.

Elm Drive

One of several unbeaten fillies in the field, this Phil D’Amato-trained daughter of Mohaymen looked good in going to the lead and running away from her competition in a Los Alamitos debut on June 26. Off that maiden win, she could be a serious player in her stakes debut, but she will face some serious speed to contend with in the Sorrento. Obviously, a threat, especially if she can improve off her debut, this bay filly looks like one of the ones to beat on Friday.

Smash Ticket

After a solid debut in Texas, where she rallied for second in the mud in a quick 5-furlong maiden event, this Todd Fincher-trained filly came west and broke her maiden impressively at Del Mar. One of only two in the field with a win over the track, she has also faced sizable fields twice and has passed horses. This experience should serve her well in a field with plenty of early speed. The move to 6 furlongs should also be of benefit to the daughter of Midnight Lute. She is the top pick in this wide-open event.

It’s Simple

This daughter of Nyquist impressed in her career debut for trainer Doug O’Neill with a 5 ½-length win after dueling early at Santa Anita on June 12 against fellow California breds. She was sent off as the 9/5 favorite in that 9-horse field but now must prove that she can handle open company and stakes fillies at that. The debut was good enough to certainly consider her on Friday, but I like others better in this field.

Eda

Trained by Bob Baffert, this daughter of Munnings was denied hitting the wire first in her debut at Santa Anita, but was given the win by the stewards after getting bumped in the stretch. The pair finished a pole in front of the rest of the field, and the disqualified winner came right back to break her maiden next time out. This $550,000 2-year-old in training purchase has every right to move forward off her solid debut and should appreciate the extra furlong of the Sorrento. Working well at Del Mar, she has a big shot in here.

Sax

This daughter of Jimmy Creed comes from Kentucky off a hard-fought win in her second start at Churchill Downs. It followed a no-factor run in her debut. The improvement was there, and she was very game in that win, so there is hope as she heads west for her stakes debut. Out of all the longshots in the race, I believe this Phil D’Amato-trainee might have the best chance. Still, it’s a lot to ask coming off a narrow maiden win.

Shesgotattitude

After a solid win going 4 ½ furlongs at Keeneland in her career debut, this daughter of Tiznow ran in consecutive stakes races against the males at Churchill Downs. Neither start was overly impressive, but she did have trouble at the start in both of them. If she can break better, perhaps she can do well back against fillies, but making the trip out to Del Mar, I’m just not ready to give her the benefit of the doubt in here.

Loveherheart

After breaking her maiden with ease in her second career starts, and first try with blinkers, she moved up to stakes competition last time. Not able to run with At the Spa early in the Fasig Tipton Debutante, she raced evenly down the stretch to finish a decent, but non-threatening fourth. Another step forward could put her in with a chance, but there are too many others in here to like better.

She’s So Shiny

This one has found nothing but tough competition in her first two starts, and the trend looks to continue on Friday. Well beaten in her debut when second behind a highly regarded filly at Keeneland, she moved right up to stakes competition in her second career start. Unfortunately, she ran into an even tougher filly in Happy Soul. Third by more than a dozen lengths in the Astoria Stakes, she now heads west for the Sorrento. She’s not without hope, but once again, this is a tough spot for a filly who probably has some ability.

Roses for Suzzett

One start is all we have to go on with this Sal Gonzalez-trained daughter of Stay Thirsty, and it was a 4-length win at Los Alamitos. It was a good effort, but coming against statebreds at the maiden claiming level leaves her with plenty to do if she wants to compete against this bunch. I am going to take a pass on this undefeated chestnut filly.

First Promise

This daughter of First Samurai was able to win second out in a five-furlong maiden claiming race at Los Alamitos after running fourth in her debut at Santa Anita. She showed good early speed in both, but each came in short fields. Considering the class drop into the claiming ranks in her second start, this will represent a sharp turn up in class. This field looks a little too tough for her.