Raven Run Stakes (Keeneland) Predictions, Betting Odds, and Picks

Raven Run Stakes Odds and Post Positions

Check out our predictions and odds for the Raven Run Stakes at Keeneland!

Odds provided by author Brian Zipse.

Raven Run Stakes Predictions and Best Bets

Here are my plays ($60 in total)

• $10 Exacta Box - Vahva, Alva Starr, and Lady Radler = $60 

If you're playing only to win, go with my top pick Vahva (7/2).

Fresh off a pair of romping stakes wins, Alva Starr looks to make it three in a row when she headlines a field of nine sophomore fillies in the Grade 2 Raven Run Stakes at Keeneland on Saturday.

The daughter of Lord Nelson will try to stretch her speed to 7 furlongs after two big wins at 6 furlongs in the Dashing Beauty Stakes at Delaware Park and the Grade 2 Prioress Stakes at Saratoga.

Trained by Brett Brinkman, the 3-year-old filly has three wins and two seconds overall in five career starts, each of which have come one furlong shorter than she will see on Saturday.

Chief among her opponents in the $350,000 test will be the graded stakes winner from the barn of Cherie De Vaux, Vahva.

A daughter of Gun Runner, she comes into the Raven Run with three wins in nine career starts. Most recently, she rallied to win the rich Charles Town Oaks (G3) while going the same distance she will see at Keeneland.

Another interesting filly in the mix is the Kantharos filly, Lady Radler. Like Vahva, she earned her first career graded stakes win in her last race.

Never out of the money in seven races on the dirt, she was a strong winner of the Grade 3 Dogwood Stakes at Churchill Downs four weeks ago.

Raven Run Stakes Predictions and Race Analysis

Alva Star

After showing real talent in her first three races, this fleet filly from the barn of Brett Brinkman has really turned things up a notch in her last two.

A romping win in a stakes race at Delaware Park showed that she was still improving and then a runaway win in the Grade 2 Prioress at Saratoga proved that she is a serious sprinter.

Still, I don’t see her as a sure thing on Saturday. There is other speed in the race to keep her occupied early and she is running a furlong farther than she ever has. A repeat of the last one probably wins this, but as a big favorite, I think it is worth a shot to try to beat her.

Vahva

This Gun Runner filly has found a sweet spot in the tricky distance of 7 furlongs. She has enough early speed to stay close early, but then has proven the ability to go by other fillies when the real running begins. 

She ran on a wet-fast track last time at Charles Town, but I don’t think that mattered much in the result of beating a good field in the Oaks. She should sit a similar stalking trip on Saturday. 

Clearly the race favorite is a talented filly, but at the distance, I believe this Cherie De Vaux-trained filly has a big shot to run her down in the lane. She is the top pick.

Dazzling Blue

This speedy daughter of Into Mischief was an impressive winner of her first three career starts for trainer Brad Cox. Since moving up in class, however, she has been beaten by the ill-fated Maple Leaf Mel and Alva Starr in her last two starts. 

I do think she is better than her last effort, beaten 11 1/4-lengths in the Prioress, but will still need to deal with the speed of Alva Starr on the front end on Saturday. 

An improved effort here would be no surprise, but until she proves that she can pass horses, it’s hard for me to pick her in a race with this kind of early speed.

Lady Radler

While her win last time in the Grade 3 Dogwood came as a surprise, it obviously should not have come at the 23/1 odds that she was sent off at. 

In her previous try on dirt, which came four starts back, she was a very sharp winner of a minor stakes race at Prairie Meadows. She can run on other surfaces, but she clearly looks best on dirt. 

Second in a stakes race at Keeneland last October, she has the ability to pass horses, which should come in handy here. She is one of the main threats to the top pick. 

Ancient Peace

After six starts in California to begin her career, this War Front filly hit the road last time and set the pace in the Grade 3 Remington Park Oaks, before fading to be second best. 

It was her first start for trainer Brian Lynch, and it was not a bad effort. Having run on turf in four races, she has only had three tries on dirt, and they are all solid. 

A big question with her is whether she wants to sprint, as she has never run shorter than a mile. Considering her dirt form, if she does like the 7 furlong distance, she is an interesting longshot here.

Simply Stated

A Pennsylvania-bred, this daughter of Warrior’s Reward brings in a very nice career record to the Raven Run. Her only career losses out of seven starts came in her first two races of the year. 

She has now won four in a row, including a minor stakes race at Penn National. Trained by Todd Beattie, she will get a real class test in this one, however. 

While it’s hard not to love her consistency, I believe the step up in class will prove to be too much for her on Saturday.

Apple Picker

The good news is this daughter of Connect has won her last two starts on dirt easily. The bad news is that she will be facing much tougher in the Raven Run. 

After a trio of poor efforts to close out her juvenile season, she has improved for her new barn. Trained by Brittany Russell, she has looked good in two starts on the main track, sandwiching a pair of decent tries on the turf. 

She could surprise on Saturday, but I think the step up from a minor stakes race at Pimlico into this will likely prove a bit too much.

Lily Poo

This California-based filly came East to run in a series of graded stakes races this summer, where she could not do better than a third-place finish, which came three races back in the Indiana Oaks. 

After an unsuccessful try on turf, she returned to dirt to finish a non-threatening fifth behind Vahva in the Charles Town Oaks. 

A strong early pace here would help her chances, but she’ll need more than she displayed last time. Still, she is not completely out of it, and could pick up the pieces for a share.

Nom de Plume

Twice a winner in three career starts, this daughter of Uncle Mo will make the big jump up to graded stakes company on Saturday. Trained by Paulo Lobo, she will also be making her first start on dirt. Her first two races came during the winter at Turfway Park, where she won her debut and then rallied for second in two races on their all-weather racing surface. 

After a layoff of six months, she came back to beat allowance fillies in an Ellis Park allowance race on the grass. She has some talent and should appreciate a fast pace. If she takes to dirt, she could outrun her odds in the Raven Run.

How to watch the Raven Run Stakes

Raven Run Stakes Race Information

• What: Raven Run Stakes (Grade 2) 
• Location: Keeneland
• Time: Saturday, October 21 -- 5:16 pm Eastern time
• How to Watch: FanDuel TV
• Purse: $350,000

Raven Run Stakes predictions and best bets are here! See the full race analysis and odds for Keeneland this Saturday.
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