Queen's Plate: Rondure Will Likely Get First Run at the Leaders Again

Check out our predictions and odds for the 2022 Queen’s Plate at Woodbine!

Queen’s Plate Best Bets and Picks

Here are my plays ($60 in total)

$10 Exacta Part Wheel – Rondure over Moira, Hall of Dreams and Sir for Sure = $30

$5 Exacta Box – Rondure, Moira and Hall of Dreams = $30

If you’re playing only to win, go with my top pick Rondure (3/1).

Pick made on 08/19/2022 at 07:00 AM EST

To ensure your bets, check out our Horse Racing Calculator, here!

Fresh off an overwhelming victory in the Woodbine Oaks, Moira will take on males for the first time when she headlines a field of 11 Canadian-breds set for Sunday’s $1 million Queen’s Plate at Woodbine.

A winner of 3-of-4 lifetime, the daughter of Ghostzapper became a stakes winner in her career debut last fall with an emphatic victory in the $250,000 Princess Elizabeth. She was narrowly beaten next out against open company.

This year she has been perfect for trainer Kevin Attard. Before her big win in the Oaks, the bay filly earned her second career stakes victory with a hard-earned win in the Fury going 7-furlongs.

Chief among her rivals in the first leg of the Canadian Triple Crown will be Rondure. The son of Oxbow comes into the 1 1/4-mile Queen’s Plate off an impressive 5 1/2-length score against open company in the Grade 3 Marine Stakes seven weeks ago.

After not doing much in his only two starts as a juvenile, he kicked off his 3-year-old season with a 10-length maiden score before just missing in the 7-furlong Queenston. He will be ridden by Flavien Prat for the first time on Sunday.

Trained by Todd Pletcher, the lightly raced Causin’ Mayhem is a potential upsetter in this 163rd edition of the Queen’s Plate.

After narrowly missing in his career debut at Gulfstream Park, the Into Mischief colt was a good looking winner at Belmont Park next out. Most recently he finished third in the Plate Trial in his third career start.

Queen’s Plate Predictions and Race Analysis

Moira

A dominant winner of the Woodbine Oaks, this daughter of Ghostzapper could not be coming into her first attempt against the boys any better. A stakes winner in her career debut, she has always been well liked and is living up to the confidence shown by her connections.

Only once beaten in four career starts (all stakes) she looks to be far and away the top filly in Canada this year. The question is can she beat a full field of top males going 10 furlongs.

As good as she has been, I do believe that the answer is yes. She is the morning line favorite and has a good shot to win on Sunday, but I just like one other better.

Rondure

He showed only mild rallies in two sprints as a 2-year-old, but this year this son of Oxbow has really come around. In fact, starting with a 10-length maiden romp in May, he has looked like the best 3-year-old colt in Canada this year.

He was beaten by The Minkster in the 7-furlong Queenston in his second start of the season, but he finished with a flourish that day to just miss the win. Stretched out for the first time in the Marine, he showed more speed to stalk the early pace of Ironstone and blew by for an easy win.

He will likely get first run at the leaders again on Sunday and with Flavien Prat hopping aboard, I believe he is the horse to beat. He is the top pick.

Duke of Love

This one had plenty of trouble last time when he finished fourth in the Plate Trial. Enough trouble that with a clear trip, he could have been right there. After two impressive wins at Woodbine in his first three starts, the son of Cupid has been competitive in three straight stakes races.

A consistent rallier, it would be no surprise to see him running down the lane well on Sunday. Still, I have my doubts about the third choice on the morning line. Two starts back he was no match for Rondure when second in the Marine.

He’s a threat, but I am going to look for a little more value in horses to come running late and fill out the exotics.

Causin’ Mayhem

Trained by Todd Pletcher, this one is a bit of a wildcard in Sunday’s big race. He has only run three times with only a maiden victory so far. A son of Into Mischief, he began his career by narrowly missing on the Gulfstream Park turf, before breaking his maiden on the dirt at Belmont Park.

Running at Woodbine for the first time in the Plate Trial, he led early and stayed on pretty well to hold third in a solid effort.

There is other speed in here to deal with, but if he can show improvement in his second try locally, he could be a serious threat.  I am going to take a pass on him here in his toughest test to date, but he does scare me quite a bit.

Sir for Sure

The first of two for trainer Mark Casse, this son of Sligo Bay was the surprise winner of the Plate Trial at odds of 21/1. He also broke his maiden going two turns at Gulfstream Park back in February. His other three races are all losses, but come while sprinting.

In a field with plenty of speed, he looks like one of the strongest candidates to be running late. Coming off a nice win over the track and with plenty of distance influence in his pedigree, the trip of the Queen’s Plate should be to his liking.

I’m not picking him to upset his second straight stakes race, but he looks like a good candidate to use in the exotics.

The Minkster

This son of English Channel made a name for himself last year with two strong wins to begin his career and then started off 2022 with a stakes win holding off Rondure in the Queenston. His perfect record came to an end last out, though, when he was well beaten in the Plate Trial.

He will need a bounce-back effort to seriously compete on Sunday, but it is possible for the two-time stakes winner in his third start of the season. Bred to handle the distance and with good tactical speed, he is one of many in here with a shot to run a big race.

Hall of Dreams

The second from the barn of Mark Casse, this son of Lemon Drop Kid seems to be improving with each start. In his last two, he rallied nicely to win a 9 furlong maiden race, before running well late to finish second in the Plate Trial.

He’s likely to appreciate the stretch out in distance on Sunday, and there is some speed in here to set up his rally. All in all, he looks like a live longshot for one of the top trainers in the business. I like his chances to get into the exotics at nice odds and will include him on my tickets.

Ironstone

This hard-knocking gray was the easy winner of two stakes races sprinting early on in his juvenile season, but has failed to find the winner’s circle in five attempts since then. The good news is that he has finished second or third in all five of those stakes races.

A son of Mr. Speaker, he brings plenty of speed to the table on Sunday and is likely to be a pace presence early. Neither of his two previous races around two-turns were bad, but he proved no match for Rondure last time.

The 10 furlongs of the Queen’s Plate is likely farther than he prefers, and with other speed in the race, I can’t endorse his chances on Sunday.

Dancin in Da’Nile

One of several in the field with some speed, this Pioneerof the Nile colt backed out late last time in the Plate Trial and finished fifth. Winless in his last four races since a debut victory, he looks a cut below the best in here.

While he does have plenty of stamina influence in his pedigree, he has given little indication in his previous stakes attempts that he can beat this type of field. He may be involved early, but looks unlikely to stick around late.

Hunt Master

Twice a winner in six career starts, this son of Hunter’s Bay will make his stakes debut in the Queen’s Plate. While he has finished in the money in all of his career races, none have come against this type of competition.

Beaten last time against lesser, he will need to make a big step up to be in with a chance down the stretch on Sunday. It’s not completely out of the question, but it would be a legitimate surprise if he would factor in when the real running begins.

Shamateur

After failing in three stakes attempts at Woodbine last fall, this son of Shaman Ghost looked to want no part of the dirt with two poor efforts at Laurel Park to begin his 3-year-old campaign.

Upon his return to Canada, he ran a much improved race to finish second in a turf allowance last out. That improvement notwithstanding, he appears to be in a spot over his head against this field. I find him hard to recommend.

How to Watch the Queen’s Plate