Monomoy Girl Stakes Odds: Wet Paint Will Make Her First Start Since Finishing Fourth in the Filly Classic

Monomoy Girl Stakes Odds and Post Positions

Check out our predictions and odds for the Monomoy Girl Stakes at Ellis Park!

*Odds provided by author Brian Zipse.

Monomoy Girl Stakes Predictions and Best Bets

Here are my plays ($60 in total)

$5 Exacta Box - Hoosier Philly, Wet Paint, and Never Tell Patti  = $30 

$15 Exacta Box - Hoosier Philly and Wet Paint = $30

If you're playing only to win, go with my top pick Hoosier Philly (5/2).    

The beaten favorite in last month’s Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks, Wet Paint will make her first start since finishing fourth in the filly classic when she tops a field of six set for Saturday’s $175,000 Monomoy Girl Stakes at Ellis Park. 

The daughter of Blame has already won three stakes races this year. Before her loss at Churchill Downs, she accounted for the Grade 3 Fantasy Stakes, the Grade 3 Honeybee Stakes, and the Martha Washington Stakes, all at Oaklawn Park.

Trained by Brad Cox, Wet Paint made a run in the 14-horse Kentucky Oaks, but her rally fell short down on the rail and was beaten three lengths by division leader Pretty Mischievous.

Chief among her rivals on Saturday in the one-mile affair will be the Tom Amoss-trained graded stakes winner, Hoosier Philly. 

A rising star last season at 2, the Into Mischief filly has yet to find the winner’s circle this year. After running third and third and fourth in a pair of graded stakes at Fair Grounds, she ran an improved second last time in the Grade 2 Black-Eyed Susan. 

Although she has yet to win since her career debut, Sabra Tuff has turned in a number of solid performances in graded stakes competitions. 

The daughter of Cross Traffic closed out last season with a fourth-place finish in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies. In her only start this season, she was beaten less than five lengths in the Grade 2 Eight Belles at Churchill Downs. Take a look at the racetrack guide for Churchill Downs - the home of the Kentucky Derby. 

Monomoy Girl Stakes Predictions and Race Analysis

Wet Paint

This daughter of Blame was the toast of Oaklawn Park earlier this year with three consecutive good-looking stakes wins. The streak sent her to Kentucky as the favorite in the most prestigious race of the year for 3-year-old fillies. 

She didn’t run badly in the Kentucky Oaks, but her rally was not as sharp as it had been in Arkansas, and she checked in fourth. This will be a much softer spot than that 14-horse field. 

Still, she will need to be at her best to win here. Trained by Brad Cox, she lacks early speed and that does give an advantage to her top rival. She is the one to beat, but at the odds, it is worth a shot to try to beat her.

Hoosier Philly

This Into Mischief filly looked as good as any juvenile filly in the country last year, with three impressive wins at Churchill Downs. She did not live up to her early expectations this year, though, with two disappointing efforts at Fair Grounds. 

Last time was more like it, though, for the Tom Amoss-trained filly, as she led much of the way in the Grade 2 Black-Eyed Susan at Pimlico before succumbing late. 

That runner-up finish was clearly the best effort of the year and sets her up well for this test. Cutting back to a flat mile in a race without much speed, I like her chances to upset the favorite. She is the top pick.

Sabra Tuff

This daughter of Cross Traffic ran some very good races last season as a 2-year-old. Most notably, she rallied for fourth against a big field in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies. 

She has only started once this year and found a tough spot in the Grade 2 Eight Belles. Never a factor there, she did show some life late to be beaten less than five lengths by a pair of very fast fillies.

Like the favorite, she does her best running late, which could put her at a disadvantage here. If she can improve upon her seasonal debut, though, she must be respected.

Champagne Calling

This Empire Maker filly was a determined winner of a Churchill Downs allowance race on Kentucky Oaks day. It was the second win in three starts this year for the Ian Wilkes-trained filly. 

Getting better with each start, she will need to improve upon her only stakes appearance where she finished sixth in the Suncoast Stakes two starts back. I expect a better effort here as she is definitely headed in the right direction. 

One of three fillies in the field without much early speed, she will need to stay in touch early on Saturday. I am looking elsewhere, but she can’t be totally dismissed.

Never Tell Patti

After a pair of decent efforts in her first two career starts, this Eric Reed-trained filly came to life last time. Making the victory all the more intriguing is that it was her first try on dirt, following two starts on the all-weather track at Turfway Park. 

The maiden win came a month ago at Churchill Downs and at the same one-mile trip that she will see on Saturday. 

Obviously, jumping up from maiden company to face top fillies will be a major test, but the way she finished off that victory, she looks like a filly with a future. She is in with a chance here.

Flamand

This daughter of Creative Cause comes into Saturday’s Monomoy Girl on a two-race winning streak and has finished first or second in 6-of-9 career starts. 

Unfortunately, those wins came against softer competition than she will find here. In her two previous stakes attempts, she finished seventh in both. 

Her last, a high-priced claiming win at Keeneland, was probably her best yet, but she still falls short from a class perspective. I like others better.

How to Watch the Monomoy Girl Stakes

Monomoy Girl Stakes Race Information

• What: Monomoy Girl Stakes 
• Location: Ellis Park
• Time: Saturday, June 17 -- 5:11 pm Eastern time
• How to Watch: FanDuel TV
• Purse: $175,000