Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert will be in search of his 14th career victory in this race when he sends out a trio of juveniles led by Arabian Lion in Saturday’s Grade 2 Los Alamitos Futurity at Los Alamitos.
A $600,000 2-year-old in training purchase, the son of the young Triple Crown-winning sire Justify was a romping debut winner two months ago as an odds-on favorite at Santa Anita.
He took the show on the road for his second start, and although he was beaten, he ran a bang-up race when second in a fast 7-furlong allowance race at Keeneland behind the highly regarded Giant Mischief.
His toughest competition in the 1 1/16-mile feature on Saturday is expected to come from his two stablemates Fort Bragg and Carmel Road.
Fort Bragg, a son of Tapit, has actually finished first in two straight but was taken down two starts ago for interference. He came right back to officially break his maiden last month at Santa Anita.
Carmel Road, meanwhile, broke his maiden by nearly nine lengths at Del Mar back in August but was unable to carry over his success last time when he faded badly out of contention in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland.
As a Kentucky Derby points race, the Los Alamitos Futurity will award points on a 10-4-3-2-1 scale to the top five finishers on Saturday.
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Los Alamitos Futurity Predictions and Race Analysis
Arabian Lion
The likely favorite leads the Baffert trio after a pair of fast performances to begin his career. His debut performance came at Santa Anita where he trounced his competition gate to wire while going six furlongs.
Next out he shipped to Keeneland for a high-priced allowance race. ALthough he could only manage second place that afternoon, his performance was quite good, as he battled the unbeaten Giant Mischief down the stretch in a fast race.
With speed and talent, he is the one to beat on Saturday. As the clear favorite stretching out for the first time, however, there is one in here that I prefer at the distance.
Fort Bragg
This well-bred son of Tapit will get blinkers off on Saturday which should allow him to track his fast stablemates early. Having finished first in his last two starts, he brings good experience into the race, and is in fact the only horse to have won at the distance.
I believe those two factors will be key in the stretch run of this Grade 2 race. Well-supported in each of his first three career starts, he should offer a bit of value here in his stakes debut.
It could just be a matter of time before this one breaks out with a big performance. While his stablemates have plenty of speed, he is likely to be the one finishing the strongest. He is the top pick.
Carmel Road
A $650,000 yearling purchase, this son of Quality Road bounced back from a troubled trip in his debut at Del Mar in August to romp home a big, front-running winner at the same track three weeks later.
The impressive, near nine-length victory led to a trip to Keeneland for the Grade 1 Breeders’ Futurity but he was never a factor after breaking from the far outside post position in the big field which was won by the soon-to-be champion Forte.
The third of three from the powerhouse Baffert barn, he must be respected as he attempts to turn things around after his failed trip to Kentucky.
Practical Move
Although he has yet to cross the wire first, this son of Practical Joke officially broke his maiden two starts back at Santa Anita when Fort Bragg was taken down for bothering him.
After getting the first place award in the maiden race, he turned in a pretty solid effort last month in the Grade 3 Bob Hope when he finished a competitive third behind a pair of fast juveniles. Never worse than third in his four career starts, he has consistently run against very good horses.
He will run without blinkers as he stretches out to 8 1/2-furlongs on Saturday and has a realistic shot to deny Baffert a clean sweep of the race.
Tall Boy
The big longshot of the field, this son of Lookin At Lucky remains a maiden after three starts at Del Mar. Most recently, he finished a well beaten third in a maiden sprint just three weeks ago.
While improvement is not out of the question, he would need to improve leaps and bounds to seriously contend here. I find the maiden hard to recommend in this Grade 2 stakes race.
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