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PP | Horse | Odds | Jockey | Trainer |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 | DORNOCH | 20/1 | L Saez | D Gargan |
2 | SIERRA LEONE | 3/1 | T Gaffalione | C Brown |
3 | MYSTIK DAN | 20/1 | B J Hernandez Jr | K McPeek |
4 | CATCHING FREEDOM | 8/1 | F Prat | B Cox |
5 | CATALYTIC | 30/1 | J Ortiz | S Joseph Jr |
6 | JUST STEEL | 20/1 | K Asmussen | D W Lukas |
7 | HONOR MARIE | 20/1 | B Curtis | D Beckman |
8 | JUST A TOUCH | 10/1 | F Geroux | B Cox |
9 | ENCINO - (Not Running) | - | - | - |
10 | T O PASSWORD | 30/1 | K Kimura | D Takayanagi |
11 | FOREVER YOUNG | 10/1 | R Sakai | Y Yahagi |
12 | TRACK PHANTOM | 20/1 | J Rosario | S Asmussen |
13 | WEST SARATOGA | 50/1 | J Castanon | L Demeritte |
14 | ENDLESSLY | 30/1 | U Rispoli | M McCarthy |
15 | DOMESTIC PRODUCT | 30/1 | I Ortiz Jr | C Brown |
16 | GRAND MO THE FIRST | 50/1 | E Jaramillo | V Barboza Jr |
17 | FIERCENESS | 5/2 | J Velazquez | T Pletcher |
18 | STRONGHOLD | 20/1 | A Fresu | P D’Amato |
19 | RESILIENCE | 20/1 | J Alvarado | W Mott |
20 | SOCIETY MAN | 50/1 | L Dettori | D Gargan |
21 | EPIC RIDE | 30/1 | A Beschizza | J Ennis |
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One of the two clear favorites in the field, this son of Gun Runner has continued to impress since being purchased for $2.3 million as a yearling. In four career races, he is only a nose shy of coming into the Run for the Roses undefeated. His lone loss came last fall in the Grade 2 Remsen Stakes, where he rallied to take the lead before being re-passed by Dornoch on the wire.
In 2024, he has been even better. In his seasonal debut, he came from way back to defeat the strongest field for any Derby prep this year in the Grade 2 Risen Star Stakes over a sloppy track at Fair Grounds. Next out, he flew home to win Keeneland’s Grade 1 Blue Grass Stakes. In all of his races, he has been a powerful finisher who looks ideally suited for the 1 1/4 mile distance of the Kentucky Derby.
Trained by one of America’s best, Chad Brown, and to be ridden by a perennial leading rider at Churchill Downs, Tyler Gaffalione, all signs point to a strong effort by the second choice on the morning line. With a strong early pace expected for this year’s Kentucky Derby, I look for Sierra Leone to be finishing best of all. He is my top pick.
Another colt who should relish a fast early pace in the Kentucky Derby is the Louisiana Derby winner, Catching Freedom. After running a solid third behind Sierra Leone in the Risen Star in his fourth career outing, the son of Constitution continued his steady improvement by coming from last to win the million-dollar race going away.
As America’s longest major prep for the Kentucky Derby, the Louisiana Derby at 1 3/16-miles should well prepare the winner for the demanding trip on the first Saturday in May. Trained by Brad Cox, I have the two-time stakes winner rated just behind Sierra Leone, but at 8/1 on the morning line, he offers excellent value. To be ridden by Flavien Prat, he is likely to run a good race on Saturday and to be right in the mix in the late stages.
Continuing the trend of liking late runners best in this year’s field, Honor Marie is my top long shot in the Kentucky Derby. The son of Honor Code was a good rallying second last time in the Louisiana Derby behind Catching Freedom in his second start of the season. Last year, all three of his starts came at Churchill Downs and all three were good, highlighted by an impressive win in the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club.
Back at his home base, the 20/1 shot on the morning line should be poised to run his best race yet as a 3-year-old. Unlike the top two picks, he has yet to win in two starts this year, but his progression is good and I know he likes the track. Given a fast pace, he also should be finishing full of run in the Kentucky Derby.
Sierra Leone, Catching Freedom, Honor Marie, Mystik Dan, and Fierceness over Sierra Leone, Catching Freedom, Honor Marie, Mystik Dan, Fierceness, Resilience, and Domestic Product = $150
Bet on My Exacta Pick at FanDuel Racing
Sierra Leone and Catching Freedom over Sierra Leone, Catching Freedom, Honor Marie, Mystik Dan, Fierceness, Resilience + Domestic Product over Sierra Leone, Catching Freedom, Honor Marie, Mystik Dan, Fierceness, Resilience, Domestic Product, Just a Touch, and Forever Young = $84
Bet on My Trifecta Pick at FanDuel Racing
Sierra Leone and Catching Freedom over Sierra Leone, Catching Freedom, Honor Marie, Mystik Dan, Fierceness, Resilience, Domestic Product, Just a Touch + Forever Young over Sierra Leone, Catching Freedom, Honor Marie, Mystik Dan, Fierceness, Resilience, and Domestic Product = $80
Bet on My Trifecta Pick at FanDuel Racing
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What: Kentucky Derby (Grade 1)
Location: Churchill Downs
Time: Saturday, May 4 -- 6:57 pm Eastern time
How to Watch: NBC
Purse: $5,000,000
Taken to the races at a very young age, Brian has been a passionate fan of horse racing his entire life. Professionally, his work has been published on several leading industry sites. Brian served as the Editor of Horse Racing Nation from 2010-2017, where he still writes a regular column and hosts the popular weekly webcast HorseCenter.
Email: [email protected]
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