Winner of the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint last fall at Keeneland, Caravel looks to keep her perfect record over the course intact when she headlines a field of nine in the Grade 2 Franklin Stakes at Keeneland on Sunday.
In 2022, the daughter of Mizzen Mast used a win in this race as a springboard to success in the World Championships. A winner of three of four this year, she will look to repeat as the favorite.
Trained by Brad Cox, the 6-year-old won three successive stakes races to begin her season, but faded to fourth in her most recent start at Saratoga.
Chief among her opponents in the 5-furlong grass feature will be the European shipper Star Guest.
From the powerful barn of Charlie Appleby, the 3-year-old daughter of Dubawi comes in off two straight stakes scores this summer at Newmarket and has never finished out of the money in six career races.
Another interesting filly set to challenge Caravel is the Wesley Ward-trained Twilight Gleaming. A Breeders’ Cup winner herself, she won the Giant’s Causeway Stakes at Keeneland earlier this year.
Franklin Stakes Predictions and Race Analysis
Caravel
The best turf sprinter in the land last season, this 15-time winner has done little to tarnish her reputation this year.
Trained by Brad Cox, she rattled off three straight stakes victories to begin 2023 before finding a soft turf course that was probably not to her liking last time out. The loss against males shows she is beatable, but it is certainly an excusable defeat.
She likes the distance, the Keeneland turf course, and she loves to win. I cannot look past her as the one to beat. She is the top pick.
Star Quest
This 3-year-old filly will be making her first start in America on Saturday. She will also be facing her stearnest test yet as far as competition.
A Godolphin homebred trained by Charlie Appleby, she looks to join a long list of stablemates who have come to North America and found success in graded stakes here.
That fact, as well as her excellent recent form in England make her one to watch on Saturday. It’s a tough spot, but I respect her connections too much to ignore.
Twilight Gleaming
A stakes winner on both sides of the pond, this Irish-bred filly had a tough trip last time when unsuccessful in her bid to win back-to-back editions of the Daisycutter Stakes at Del Mar.
A stakes winner at Keeneland earlier this year, she is both proven for class and at the 5-furlong distance. I like her chances to bounce back from the defeat last out in what will be her second start since a trip to Ascot.
This is without a doubt a tough spot, but I do consider her one of the biggest threats to Caravel and a must use in the exotics.
Bay Storm
A determined winner of two straight stakes races in Kentucky, this daughter of Kantharos will look to prove that she belongs among the best in the division on Saturday.
Trained by Jonathan Thomas, she is very consistent and has good tactical speed. It would come as no surprise to see her run well again here.
Having said that, there are a few I like a bit better in the Franklin, and as one of the favorites, I am going to try to beat her.
Wakanaka
A graded stakes winner running longer, this Irish-bred daughter of Power looks to prove that she belongs among the best while sprinting.
Her two recent tries sprinting were both solid seconds, but now she tries her shortest distance yet, while facing a strong field. She should be closing down the Keeneland stretch for trainer Bill Mott.
Her class is noted, and if the leaders set the table for her, she is in with a shot, but at the distance of 5-furlongs, I like others better here.
Tony Ann
Based in California, this consistent daughter of Cairo Prince has looked good since returning to sprints in her last three races.
A nice allowance score at Del Mar was followed by a pair of game defeats against stakes competition in her last two. Five furlongs seems to suit her well, and she should never be too far out of it.
With five horses below her on the morning line, she figures to offer nice value in this Grade 2 affair. I will be using the Phil D’Amato-trained mare in my exotics.
Train to Artemus
A daughter of Tapizar, this mare has won stakes races at three different tracks this year. Well traveled and a turf sprinting specialist, she merits consideration here.
Still, this will likely be her toughest test yet, and it looks like her best results have come against a cut below what she will face on Saturday.
If you are looking for a big longshot to consider in the Franklin, I do like her best, but she is still a ways down the list against this tough field.
B G Warrior
This speedy 3-year-old filly has kept a busy schedule with 17 races already in her two seasons on the racetrack.
She is twice a stakes winner but both came against lesser competition on the all weather track at Turfway Park last winter.
She has proven herself a capable sprinter on any surface for trainer Hugo Andrade, but with all the speed in this race, her chances to go all the way on Saturday seem slim at best.
Linguistic
Only once a winner in seven tries on the turf, this daughter of Flatter seems to be a deserving longshot on Saturday.
That lone victory came four starts ago in an allowance race at Ellis Park. Since then, she has finished out of the money in her last three, with the last two coming in allowance company.
I have a hard time finding a scenario where she can truly threaten for the win against this talented field of turf sprinters.
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